086
FXUS63 KJKL 012034
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
434 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR LATE IN THE WEEK.
- AFTER A LULL FOR MOST OF THE WEEK, A SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL RETURNS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 434 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2026
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS IS SUPPORTING A COLD
FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE JKL
FORECAST AREA LATE TODAY. A VORTICITY MAXIMUM IS ALSO EVIDENT ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER CENTRAL KY. SHOWERS HAVE
POPPED UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS THE VORT APPROACHES THIS
AFTERNOON, AND A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT OUR FAR
SOUTHWEST LOCALES THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES,
DRIER AIR WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE ENTIRETY OF THE AREA. THIS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS TROUGHING ALOFT EXTENDS SOUTH
DOWN THE EAST COAST AND LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DROPS OUT OF
CANADA OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2026
THE PERIOD OPENS IN THE MIDST OF THE GRADUAL BREAKDOWN OF THE
PREVIOUS BLOCKING PATTERN. AS THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MIGRATES
OFF THE EAST COAST, HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD, LEAVING EASTERN
KENTUCKY TEMPORARILY BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES. AT THE SURFACE,
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL LEAD TO
PREDOMINANTLY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ON WEDNESDAY; THUS, DRIER AIR
WILL ENTER THE FORECAST AREA, AND WITH A DRY ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN
OWING TO NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT, THESE DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. COURTESY OF CLEAR SKIES, HIGHS WILL WARM INTO
THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S ACROSS THE AREA. IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE
IMPACTS, THURSDAYS WEATHER WILL BE SIMILAR, ALBEIT WITH SLIGHTLY
WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURES (LOW TO MID 80S) AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PROGRESSES EAST AND HEIGHT RISES ARE EXPECTED ALOFT. MEANWHILE,
THE SURFACE HIGHS PROGRESSION SOUTHEAST WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO
BECOME MORE WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES,
INITIATING MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN, ALTHOUGH THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD STILL REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO
MAINTAIN CLEAR SKIES.
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE, THE PRIMARY
DEVIATION FROM NBM OUTPUT WAS TO ADD ADDITIONAL TERRAIN INFLUENCES
IN THE AREA, WITH A MODEST RIDGE-VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT LIKELY
OVERNIGHT ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WITH THE NBM RUNNING
COOLER THAN GUIDANCE FOR RIDGES AND WARMER THAN GUIDANCE FOR
VALLEYS, HOURLY AND LOW TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.
EVEN SO, DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S WILL PROVIDE A REASONABLE
FLOOR FOR OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN SHELTERED VALLEYS, AND
THEREFORE MAINSTEM RIVER VALLEYS CAN EXPECT FOG ON THURSDAY
MORNING. WITH PERSISTING CLEAR SKIES, LOW TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN
APPROACH DEWPOINTS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING, HINTING
AT ANOTHER CHANCE FOR VALLEY FOG IN PRONE AREAS.
ON FRIDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT FARTHER
SOUTHEAST, BUT WE SHOULD GET ONE MORE DAY OF DRY WEATHER BEFORE
RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN
BE FIRMLY IN THE 80S, BUT WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND THE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST, MOISTURE
RETURN WILL CONTINUE. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S OR PERHAPS EVEN
THE 60S WILL BE POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AND AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN AND THE PATTERN ALOFT BECOMES
QUASI-ZONAL, CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE
AREA STARTING ON SATURDAY. IN THE ABSENCE OF MORE DEFINED SYNOPTIC
FORCING, RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE RELATIVELY LOW ON SATURDAY, BUT
BY SUNDAY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/SOUTHERN
CANADA AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL PUSH EASTWARD. CONCURRENTLY, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL ALSO BE PROGRESSING EASTWARD, WITH A
BROAD AREA OF MODEST HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT. ACCORDINGLY, CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE AGAIN SUNDAY.
WHILE THE DETAILS OF THESE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ARE NOT FULLY
RESOLVABLE AT THIS TIME, A SHIFT TOWARDS A MARGINALLY WETTER
PATTERN APPEARS LIKELY GOING INTO THE LATE WEEKEND AND THE START
OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 434 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2026
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY
OF KEKQ UNTIL EARLY EVENING. VALLEY FOG MAY AFFECT THE DEEPER
VALLEYS (MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST KY) OVERNIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. EITHER
OF THESE COULD BRING LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE, VFR IS
EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...FAGAN
AVIATION...HAL
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page