856
FXUS63 KJKL 021845
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
245 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK.
- AFTER A LULL IN CONVECTION FOR MOST PLACES THIS WEEK, SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL RETURNS LATE SATURDAY AND CONTINUES INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 243 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2026
A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH/VORT MAX WILL EXIT EASTERN KENTUCKY TO THE
SOUTH THIS EVENING, WITH A RAPID DROP-OFF OF ANY LINGERING SHOWER
AND POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY SUNSET FROM PIKE THROUGH
LETCHER AND HARLAN COUNTIES. COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF
THIS VORT MAX WILL BE SHORT-LIVED, WITH RAPIDLY RISING MID-LEVEL
HEIGHTS AND INCREASINGLY DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE BIG QUESTION FOR TONIGHT
IS HOW WIDESPREAD FOG MIGHT BE, WITH THE NAMNEST QUITE AGGRESSIVE
UNDER INCREASINGLY EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING, WHILE MUCH OF THE
REST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FOG IS CONTAINED IN THE SHELTERED
RIVER VALLEYS. FOR NOW, WILL KEEP AREAS OF FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS,
WITH PATCHY FOG OTHERWISE, BUT A MORE AGGRESSIVE FOG FORECAST
OUTSIDE OF THE RIVER VALLEYS MAY BE NECESSARY WITH FUTURE UPDATES.
MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST WHILE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY
AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGIONS. SURFACE WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY
EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY AND LIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE
TRENDING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY TOWARD DAWN THURSDAY MORNING. FOG IS
MORE LIKELY TO BE CONFINED TO THE RIVER VALLEYS THURSDAY MORNING,
AND MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM
PERIOD. LOWS TONIGHT DIP INTO THE MID-40S TO MID-50S, AND REMAIN
CLOSE TO THAT OR PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THURSDAY MORNING.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN TODAY, WITH UPPER 70S TO A
FEW LOWER 80S READINGS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2026
THE MAIN CHANGE TO GRIDS AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
THIS MORNING WAS TO ADD IN MORE TERRAIN DETAILS EACH NIGHT ON
ACCOUNT OF A DRY AIR MASS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THAT WILL BE IN
PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. DID ALSO INCLUDE A HEALTHY AMOUNT
OF VALLEY FOG EACH NIGHT. RIDGING ALOFT STILL LOOKS TO KEEP THINGS
DRY AND QUIET THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK BEFORE RETURN FLOW
MOISTURE KICKS UP CONVECTION CHANCES FROM LATE SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.
THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
THE PERIOD OPENS IN THE MIDST OF THE GRADUAL BREAKDOWN OF THE
PREVIOUS BLOCKING PATTERN. AS THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MIGRATES
OFF THE EAST COAST, HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD, LEAVING EASTERN
KENTUCKY TEMPORARILY BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES. AT THE SURFACE,
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL LEAD TO
PREDOMINANTLY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ON WEDNESDAY; THUS, DRIER AIR
WILL ENTER THE FORECAST AREA, AND WITH A DRY ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN
OWING TO NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT, THESE DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. COURTESY OF CLEAR SKIES, HIGHS WILL WARM INTO
THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S ACROSS THE AREA. IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE
IMPACTS, THURSDAYS WEATHER WILL BE SIMILAR, ALBEIT WITH SLIGHTLY
WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURES (LOW TO MID 80S) AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PROGRESSES EAST AND HEIGHT RISES ARE EXPECTED ALOFT. MEANWHILE,
THE SURFACE HIGHS PROGRESSION SOUTHEAST WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO
BECOME MORE WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES,
INITIATING MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN, ALTHOUGH THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD STILL REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO
MAINTAIN CLEAR SKIES.
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE, THE PRIMARY
DEVIATION FROM NBM OUTPUT WAS TO ADD ADDITIONAL TERRAIN INFLUENCES
IN THE AREA, WITH A MODEST RIDGE-VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT LIKELY
OVERNIGHT ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WITH THE NBM RUNNING
COOLER THAN GUIDANCE FOR RIDGES AND WARMER THAN GUIDANCE FOR
VALLEYS, HOURLY AND LOW TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.
EVEN SO, DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S WILL PROVIDE A REASONABLE
FLOOR FOR OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN SHELTERED VALLEYS, AND
THEREFORE MAINSTEM RIVER VALLEYS CAN EXPECT FOG ON THURSDAY
MORNING. WITH PERSISTING CLEAR SKIES, LOW TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN
APPROACH DEWPOINTS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING, HINTING
AT ANOTHER CHANCE FOR VALLEY FOG IN PRONE AREAS.
ON FRIDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT FARTHER
SOUTHEAST, BUT WE SHOULD GET ONE MORE DAY OF DRY WEATHER BEFORE
RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN
BE FIRMLY IN THE 80S, BUT WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND THE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST, MOISTURE
RETURN WILL CONTINUE. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S OR PERHAPS EVEN
THE 60S WILL BE POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AND AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN AND THE PATTERN ALOFT BECOMES
QUASI-ZONAL, CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE
AREA STARTING ON SATURDAY. IN THE ABSENCE OF MORE DEFINED SYNOPTIC
FORCING, RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE RELATIVELY LOW ON SATURDAY, BUT
BY SUNDAY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/SOUTHERN
CANADA AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL PUSH EASTWARD. CONCURRENTLY, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL ALSO BE PROGRESSING EASTWARD, WITH A
BROAD AREA OF MODEST HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT. ACCORDINGLY, CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE AGAIN SUNDAY.
WHILE THE DETAILS OF THESE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ARE NOT FULLY
RESOLVABLE AT THIS TIME, A SHIFT TOWARDS A MARGINALLY WETTER
PATTERN APPEARS LIKELY GOING INTO THE LATE WEEKEND AND THE START
OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 116 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2026
A VIGOROUS VORT MAX MOVING SOUTH ACROSS FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL PRODUCE A FEW TO SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS, ALONG
WITH A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE VIRGINIA BORDER. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE TAF SITES. OTHERWISE, SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER OVER THE REGION FOR THE PERIOD
LEADING TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AS A BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SAG
WELL SOUTH OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE ONE CAVEAT TO VFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR VALLEY FOG WITH REDUCTIONS TO IFR, OR
POSSIBLY LOWER, AGAIN LATE TONIGHT, THOUGH TAF LOCATIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE IMPACTED. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE OR NORTHEAST TO NORTH AT 10 KTS OR LESS.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...FAGAN/GREIF
AVIATION...CMC
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