332
FXUS63 KJKL 031709
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
109 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES RISE TO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S BY THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK.
- DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON, BUT A
PATTERN SHIFT WILL BRING DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
TO THE REGION FROM LATE SATURDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1043 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2026
THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. MAIN UPDATE WAS TO HOURLY T
WHERE LATEST HOURLY OBSERVATIONS WERE LAGGING THE FORECAST BY A
FEW DEGREES, ESPECIALLY IN SHELTERED VALLEY LOCATIONS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 725 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2026
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH MAINLY JUST
THE INCLUSION OF THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS FOR THE T/TD/SKY GRIDS.
THESE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS
ALONG WITH A FRESHENING OF THE ZONES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2026
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE WEATHER
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND MOST OF KENTUCKY. SOME RESIDUAL
MOISTURE IS NOTED IN THE FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA WITH
VALLEY FOG SHOWING UP CLEARLY ON SATELLITE. OTHERWISE, SKIES ARE
CLEAR AND THIS MADE FOR A NIGHT OF UNFETTERED RADIATIONAL COOLING.
ACCORDINGLY, TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY VARY FROM THE UPPER 40S IN
THE SHELTERED VALLEYS TO AROUND 60 DEGREES ON THE THERMAL BELT
RIDGES. MEANWHILE, AMID LIGHT WINDS, DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE MID
40S NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE SOUTH.
THE MODELS, AND THEIR INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE SUITES, ARE IN TERRIFIC
AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THEY ALL DEPICT A COMPACT AND SHARP 5H TROUGH SLIPPING SOUTHEAST
TO THE CAROLINA COAST BY MIDDAY WHILE AN AREA OF MODERATE RIDGING
WORKS DEEPER INTO KENTUCKY THROUGH THE DAY AND TONIGHT. THIS
MEANS HEIGHT RISES FOR EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE WITH A BENIGN
UPPER PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. BASICALLY, ALL
ENERGY AT MID LEVELS WILL STAY WELL NORTH OR EAST OF THE JKL CWA
DURING THE SHORT TERM. AGAIN, GIVEN THE EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT,
THE NBM WAS USED AS THE STARTING POINT FOR THE GRIDS. MINIMAL
ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE TO THIS INITIALIZATION - MAINLY FOR
TERRAIN DETAILS IN THE HOURLY AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT -
ALONG WITH DRIER DEWPOINTS/RH EACH AFTERNOON.
SENSIBLE WEATHER FEATURES MORE SUNNY AND COMFORTABLE WEATHER EACH
DAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, THOUGH TEMPERATURES DO CREEP
UP EACH AFTERNOON - REACHING THE WARM MID 80S FOR MANY ON
THURSDAY. FOR TONIGHT WE WILL HAVE A REPEAT OF THIS CURRENT NIGHT
WITH A DECENT RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT DEVELOPING ALONG
WITH FOG CONFINED TO THE RIVER VALLEYS. NEAR PERFECT WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL CORRESPOND NICELY WITH THE LONG TWILIGHTS OF THIS
TIME OF YEAR AS THE SUN SETS A BIT LATER EACH EVENING - IDEAL FOR
EXTENDED OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.
THE CHANGES TO THE NBM STARTING POINT MAINLY CONSISTED OF
TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT ADJUSTMENTS FOR AN ENHANCED AMOUNT OF
TERRAIN DETAIL TONIGHT ALONG WITH EXTRA DRYING EACH AFTERNOON.
POPS WERE JUST ABOUT ZERO THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE NBM ALONG
WITH ALL OTHER GUIDANCE AND KEPT THERE.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2026
THE MAIN CHANGE TO GRIDS FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST THIS MORNING WAS TO ADD IN MORE TERRAIN DETAILS EACH
NIGHT ON ACCOUNT OF THE DRY AIR MASS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THAT
WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. DID ALSO INCLUDE SOME
RIVER VALLEY FOG LATE EACH NIGHT. RIDGING ALOFT STILL LOOKS TO
KEEP THINGS DRY AND QUIET THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK BEFORE
RETURN FLOW MOISTURE AND A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN MOVES BACK INTO AT
LEAST THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY - HELPING TO RAMP UP
CONVECTION CHANCES FROM LATE SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY FOR THE JKL
CWA.
THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS SQUARELY
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE DOMINANT SE CONUS RIDGING, BUT THAT
PATTERN LOOKS TO BREAK DOWN LATER THIS WEEKEND. AS TROUGHING DIGS
INTO THE GREATER OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON SATURDAY, THE ANTECEDENT
RIDGING GETS SHUNTED FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. KENTUCKY LOOKS TO BE
POSITIONED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AXIS'S
APEX, WHICH SUGGESTS THAT A BRIEF PERIOD OF DEEPER WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND BETTER MOISTURE RETURN IS POSSIBLE BEFORE
SPLIT/QUASI-ZONAL FLOW SETS EARLY NEXT WEEK. A REX BLOCK FEATURE
WILL HAVE EMERGED UPSTREAM OVER THE GREAT PLAINS BY THEN, THUS
ALLOWING THE WEATHER PATTERN TO STAGNATE HERE IN THE COMMONWEALTH.
THE EVOLUTION OF THAT BLOCK IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT AT THE CURRENT
TEMPORAL RANGE, BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
HIGHER AT THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD THAN THEY WERE AT THE
BEGINNING.
THE INITIAL RIDGING PATTERN FAVORS EFFICIENT DIURNAL PROCESSES AND
WARM/DRY SENSIBLE WEATHER IN EASTERN KENTUCKY. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES TO FOSTER EFFICIENT DIURNAL MIXING, WITH OVERNIGHT
RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLITS PROBABLE. AFTER WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE 80S ON THURSDAY, SHELTERED AND SHADED VALLEYS SHOULD
COOL TO THE 50S AFTER SUNSET. GIVEN ANTECEDENT AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOW TO MID 50S, NOCTURNAL RADIATION FOG IS POISED TO DEVELOP
IN VALLEY LOCALES WITH A NEARBY WATER SOURCE. FOG COVERAGE SHOULD BE
LESS WIDESPREAD THAN IT WAS IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD THOUGH, AS THE
PREVIOUS DAYS' WARM AND SUNNY WEATHER WILL CULMINATE IN DRYING
SOILS. ONCE THE VALLEY FOG BURNS OFF ON FRIDAY MORNING, TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO QUICKLY RISE TO A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THEY WERE
THE DAY PRIOR. FORECAST GUIDANCE COLLECTIVELY DEPICTS RISING
MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS AND 850MB TEMPERATURES WARMING TO THE 15-20 DEGREES
CELSIUS RANGE BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH
CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN APPS, SURFACE WINDS WILL ADOPT
MORE OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT. THE RESULTANT DOWNSLOPING AND DIURNAL
MIXING SHOULD DRY THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE COLUMN OUT. BASELINE NBM
DATA SUGGESTS THAT SE PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD WARM INTO
THE LOWER 90S ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN
ALL OF THE ABOVE.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 80S FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD, BUT THE RENEWED PROXIMITY TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AND
INCREASED MOISTURE RETURN WILL INTRODUCE CLOUD COVER AND POPS TO THE
REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD STAY
DRY ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON, BUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED
OUT BY SUNSET IN THE BLUEGRASS. THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY, BUT THE POSITIVE TILT OF THE PARENT TROUGHING
ALOFT AND THE DISPLACEMENT OF THE BETTER FORCING/DYNAMICS SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER RISK. LIKEWISE, THE EARLY-
PERIOD DRYNESS WILL MITIGATE THE RISK OF WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGICAL
IMPACTS. THE STAGNATION OF THE PATTERN WILL KEEP SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT THESE ARE
LIKELY TO BE ISOLATED/SCATTERED AND DIURNAL IN NATURE. NO PARTICULAR
DAY LOOKS LIKE A COMPLETE WASHOUT, AS IS TYPICAL FOR SUCH EARLY-
SUMMER WEATHER PATTERNS HERE IN EASTERN KENTUCKY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 108 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2026
VFR TAFS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE 18Z TAF WINDOW AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO REGION. RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN TONIGHT, YET WILL STAY CLEAR OF THE TAF SITES. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE THE RULE.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...CMC
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...MARCUS/GREIF
AVIATION...CMC
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