259
FXUS63 KJKL 040402
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1202 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES RISE TO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S BY THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK.
- DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON, BUT A
PATTERN SHIFT WILL BRING DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
TO THE REGION FROM LATE SATURDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1202 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2026
LATE EVENING OBS WERE BLENDED INTO THE FORECAST WITHOUT ANY
SUBSTANTIVE CHANGES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 734 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2026
EARLY EVENING OBSERVATIONS WERE BLENDED INTO THE FORECAST. HAVE
INCLUDED A FASTER TEMPERATURE DROP IN MOST VALLEYS THIS EVENING.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2026
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD, WITH A GRADUAL SHIFT FROM
BEING CENTERED TO THE NORTH AND WEST TO BEGIN THE PERIOD, TO
BECOMING CENTERED JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA LATE IN THE
PERIOD. THIS GRADUAL SHIFT WILL ALLOW FOR THE CURRENT NORTHEASTERLY
SURFACE FLOW TO BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY THURSDAY, WITH GRADUALLY
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS LATER IN THE DAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER WHILE STILL REMAINING WELL TO THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. THE SHIFT TO A SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WIND
DIRECTION WILL ALLOW FOR THE WARMING TREND TO ACCELERATE A BIT, WITH
HIGHS WARMING INTO THE MID-80S, ABOUT 5 DEGREES ON AVERAGE WARMER
THAN THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO TREND
WARMER, WITH UPPER 40S TO MID-50S TONIGHT UNDER GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS RISING TO THE 50S TO LOWER-60S THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION. VALLEY FOG
ALONG THE MAINSTEM RIVERS SHOULD BE EXPECTED BOTH TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2026
AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL REMAIN OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE CONUS
THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. RIDGING WILL START OUT
ALIGNED OVER THE APPALACHIANS ON FRIDAY, WITH A PROGRESSIVE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES/UPPER MIDWEST REGION.
MEANWHILE, A BROADER CLOSED LOW IS SEEN OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WITH
A DEEP CLOSED LOW NEARING THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE RIDGE
IN THE EAST WILL TEMPORARILY BUCKLE INTO THIS WEEKEND, AS A
TROUGH DEEPENS FROM EASTERN CANADA DOWN THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION. MEANWHILE, AS THE DEEP PACIFIC NORTHWEST SYSTEM ROTATES
EAST, AND THE NORTHERN MEXICO CLOSED LOW MOVES NORTH NORTHEAST
INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS, A SHARPER RIDGE AXIS WILL
REESTABLISH ITSELF ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER INTO
NEXT WEEK. THIS RIDGE WILL THEN NUDGE FURTHER EAST AND PIVOT TO
SOME DEGREE, DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF TROUGHING ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. EITHER WAY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS, WITH A MORE SUMMER-LIKE
CONVECTIVE PATTERN IN PLACE AFTER SATURDAY.
DRY WEATHER WILL ROLL ON ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH SATURDAY,
WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY INCREASING EACH DAY. GUIDANCE HAS
GENERALLY COME IN A BIT COOLER ON THE HIGHS OVERALL, WITH MOST
LOCATIONS LIKELY STAYING JUST SHY OF THE 90 DEGREE MARK. DID
CONTINUE TO ADD IN MORE OF A RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT ON FRIDAY NIGHT,
WITH VALLEYS STILL TAKING ADVANTAGE OF MID 50S DEW POINTS ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT, WITH AN UPTICK IN RAIN CHANCES. CHANCES WILL PEAK ON
SUNDAY, AS THE FRONT ATTEMPTS TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL THEN REMAIN EACH DAY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, LIKELY DIMINISHING WITH TIME, AS
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TAKES CONTROL ONCE AGAIN. UNFORTUNATELY,
THIS WILL RESULT IN LESS IMPACTFUL RAINFALL TO HELP MITIGATE THE
ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S. A LITTLE MORE
DISCOMFORT CAN BE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, AS AFTERNOON
DEW POINTS CREEP UP THROUGH THE LOW TO MID 60S, BEFORE THESE LOWER
JUST A TAD FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 720 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2026
VALLEY FOG WILL BRING LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS IN SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY, BUT SHOULDN'T AFFECT TAF
SITES. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD,
WITH ONLY SOME SPARSE FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...JKL
AVIATION...HAL
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