805
FXUS63 KJKL 041427
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1027 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES RISE TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S BY THE START OF
THE WEEKEND.
- DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON, BUT A
PATTERN SHIFT WILL BRING DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
TO THE REGION FROM LATE SATURDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1026 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2026
THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST, WITH JUST THE INCLUSION OF
THE LATEST HOURLY T/TD GRIDS WITH AN INTERPOLATION INTO THE
CURRENTLY HOURLY FORECAST THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 720 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2026
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH MAINLY JUST
THE INCLUSION OF THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS FOR THE T/TD/SKY GRIDS.
THESE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS
ALONG WITH A FRESHENING OF THE ZONES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2026
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE STILL DOMINATING THE WEATHER
THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. SKIES ARE CLEAR ASIDE FROM SOME PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY. THIS IS CREATING ANOTHER
NIGHT OF NEARLY UNINTERRUPTED RADIATIONAL COOLING. ACCORDINGLY,
TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY VARY FROM NEAR 50 DEGREES IN THE MOST
SHELTERED VALLEYS TO THE LOWER 60S ON THE RIDGES. MEANWHILE, AMID
LIGHT WINDS, DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTHEAST TO THE
LOWER 50S IN THE SOUTHWEST.
THE MODELS, AND THEIR INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE SUITES, ARE IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THEY ALL DEPICT A FAIRLY STRONG 5H RIDGE HOLDING OVER THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND KEEPING ANY MID-LEVEL FLOW WELL TO THE NORTH
OF KENTUCKY THROUGH FRIDAY. ONLY LATE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
DOES THIS RIDGE SINK SOUTH ENOUGH THAT SOME FLOW STARTS TO TOP IT
AND THREATEN NORTHERN PARTS OF THE STATE WITH A WEAK IMPULSE
PASSING BY, NEAR THE OHIO RIVER, FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. GRADUAL
HEIGHT FALLS FOLLOW FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY INTO THE WEEKEND.
EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT LED TO THE NBM AGAIN BEING USED FOR THE
STARTING POINT OF THE GRIDS WITH MINIMAL ADJUSTMENTS. ANY TWEAKS
WERE MAINLY FOR TERRAIN DETAILS IN THE HOURLY AND MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT - ALONG WITH DRIER DEWPOINTS/RH EACH
AFTERNOON.
SENSIBLE WEATHER FEATURES MORE SUNNY AND NEAR PERFECT WEATHER EACH
DAY THOUGH TEMPERATURES CREEP UP TOWARD THE UPPER 80S TO CLOSE OUT
THE WORK WEEK. FOR TONIGHT, WE WILL SEE A REPEAT OF THIS CURRENT
NIGHT WITH A DECENT RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT DEVELOPING
ALONG WITH FOG PRIMARILY CONFINED TO THE RIVER VALLEYS. THESE
TERRIFIC CONDITIONS FOR THE WEATHER CORRESPOND NICELY WITH THE
LONGER EVENING LIGHT THIS TIME OF YEAR AS THE SUN SETS A BIT
LATER - IDEAL FOR KEEPING THE OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES GOING DEEP INTO
THE TWILIGHT.
THE CHANGES TO THE NBM STARTING POINT MAINLY CONSISTED OF
TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT ADJUSTMENTS SUCH AS ADDING MORE TERRAIN
DETAIL TONIGHT ALONG WITH EXTRA MIX-DOWN DRYING EACH AFTERNOON.
NBM POPS WERE JUST ABOUT ZERO THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG WITH ALL
OTHER GUIDANCE AND KEPT THAT WAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2026
CONUS HAS LONG BEEN IN A OMEGA-BLOCK TYPE PATTERN, WITH TWO UPPER
LEVEL LOWS ON EITHER COAST, AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS OVERALL PATTERN HAS EVOLVED,
WITH HIGH PRESSURE GETTING FORCED EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY, IN FAVOR
OF AN INCOMING SHORTWAVE. THIS INCOMING SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO
TRAVERSE THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE, A SEPARATE,
SUBTROPICAL LOW EJECTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL HELP TRANSPORT MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER, MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
NIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S IN VALLEYS, AND LOW TO MID 60S
ALONG RIDGE TOPS. SOME PATCHY AREAS OF FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT,
BUT SHOULD MIX OUT BY MID-MORNING SATURDAY. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY
THROUGH THE DAY, WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS AND HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S.
AS THE GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES INTO NEW ENGLAND, THE
TROUGH AXIS, AND THE SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT, EXTENDS JUST NORTH OF
THE AREA INTO THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL YIELD ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA (AT THIS TIME, PRIMARILY THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY
AND NORTH). OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S UNDER LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.
HEADING INTO SUNDAY MORNING THAT SOUTHWEST UPPER LOW MAKES ITS WAY
INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN A QUASI REX BLOCK TYPE SET-UP.
THIS WILL INCREASE SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S.
THE EVOLUTION OF THE REX BLOCK IS HARD TO PINPOINT AT THE CURRENT
TEMPORAL RANGE, BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
HIGHER AT THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD THAN THEY
WERE AT THE BEGINNING. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY STAY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S DURING THE DAY AND MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE EVENING
THROUGH MID-WEEK.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2026
VALLEY FOG WILL BRING LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS IN PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING AND LATE TONIGHT, BUT
SHOULDN'T AFFECT ANY OF THE TAF SITES, EXCEPT PERHAPS AT KSME FOR
A BRIEF AMOUNT OF TIME. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD, WITH ONLY SOME SPARSE FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD, AS
WELL.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...CMC
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...GREIF
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page