708
FXUS63 KJKL 041824
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
224 PM EDT THU JUN 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES RISE TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S BY THE START OF
THE WEEKEND.
- DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON, BUT A
PATTERN SHIFT WILL BRING DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
TO THE REGION FROM LATE SATURDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 223 PM EDT THU JUN 4 2026
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY GET PUSHED SOUTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN UNUSUALLY
DRY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WITH A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
PASSAGE IN THE MID- TO LATE AFTERNOON FRIDAY REPRESENTING THE
LEADING EDGE OF INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY TO WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AND RESULTING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. DAILY HIGH AND LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS WARMING AT A FASTER PACE THAN DAYTIME HIGHS.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2026
CONUS HAS LONG BEEN IN A OMEGA-BLOCK TYPE PATTERN, WITH TWO UPPER
LEVEL LOWS ON EITHER COAST, AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS OVERALL PATTERN HAS EVOLVED,
WITH HIGH PRESSURE GETTING FORCED EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY, IN FAVOR
OF AN INCOMING SHORTWAVE. THIS INCOMING SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO
TRAVERSE THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE, A SEPARATE,
SUBTROPICAL LOW EJECTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL HELP TRANSPORT MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER, MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
NIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S IN VALLEYS, AND LOW TO MID 60S
ALONG RIDGE TOPS. SOME PATCHY AREAS OF FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT,
BUT SHOULD MIX OUT BY MID-MORNING SATURDAY. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY
THROUGH THE DAY, WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS AND HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S.
AS THE GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES INTO NEW ENGLAND, THE
TROUGH AXIS, AND THE SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT, EXTENDS JUST NORTH OF
THE AREA INTO THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL YIELD ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA (AT THIS TIME, PRIMARILY THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY
AND NORTH). OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S UNDER LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.
HEADING INTO SUNDAY MORNING THAT SOUTHWEST UPPER LOW MAKES ITS WAY
INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN A QUASI REX BLOCK TYPE SET-UP.
THIS WILL INCREASE SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S.
THE EVOLUTION OF THE REX BLOCK IS HARD TO PINPOINT AT THE CURRENT
TEMPORAL RANGE, BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
HIGHER AT THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD THAN THEY
WERE AT THE BEGINNING. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY STAY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S DURING THE DAY AND MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE EVENING
THROUGH MID-WEEK.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 116 PM EDT THU JUN 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONLY
SOME SPARSE FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON. VALLEY FOG IS
EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT, DIMINISHING GRADUALLY BETWEEN 12Z AND
14Z. KLOZ AND KSME MAY SEE A BRIEF REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE, OR FROM THE WEST OR
SOUTHWEST AT 5 KTS OR LESS, THROUGH THE PERIOD.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...CMC
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