849
FXUS63 KJKL 051426
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1026 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES RISE TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S BY THE START OF
THE WEEKEND.
- DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY, BUT A PATTERN
SHIFT WILL BRING DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BACK TO
THE REGION FROM SUNDAY INTO NEW WORK WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1025 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2026
MADE MINOR UPDATES TO HOURLY T/TD/SKY GRIDS IN THE NEAR-TERM, BUT
WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 747 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2026
A TOUCH OF FOG IS NOTED IN THE SHELTERED MAINSTEM RIVER VALLEYS
BUT THAT SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA BUT WILL WARM RAPIDLY THROUGH THE MORNING ON THEIR WAY INTO
THE 80S BY THE AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST IS LARGELY ON TRACK,
WARRANTING ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO BRING THE HOURLY FORECAST
INTO LINE WITH THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 447 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2026
FAIR SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES PREVAIL ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THERMOMETER READINGS RANGING
FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME FOG IN
MAINSTEM RIVER VALLEYS. MEANWHILE, THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
LOOKING ALOFT, AN ~589 DAM HIGH IS CENTERED OVER ALABAMA AND
GEORGIA WITH RIDGING EXTENDING NORTHEAST TOWARD LOWER ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC. BROAD TROUGHING WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IS NOTED OVER THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST.
THE TROUGHING WILL PROPAGATE EASTWARD THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM
PERIOD, SHUNTING THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING SOUTHWARD TO MORE OVER
FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT GULF COAST. THIS WILL BRING A SOUTHEASTWARD
SHIFT IN THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE HIGH AS WELL AND MAKE WAY FOR
A COLD FRONT TO DROP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD, THOUGH RAIN CHANCES WILL LIKELY STAY NORTH OF THE JKL CWA
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY. THE OVERALL AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO WARM AS
WELL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH EACH SUBSEQUENT DAY SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
THE PREVIOUS.
IN SENSIBLE TERMS, LOOK FOR FAIR SKIES AND NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH A LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON AND A
TOUCH OF FOG IN THE TYPICALLY FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS LATE EACH NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING. LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 83 TO 89F RANGE
TODAY AND ABOUT A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER IN MOST PLACES ON SATURDAY,
WHILE NIGHTTIME LOWS RANGE FROM 56 TO 65F TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 546 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2026
THE LONG TERM PERIOD OPENS WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NEW ENGLAND, WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE LOCATED IN QUEBEC, WITH A COLD FRONT DRAPED INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
CONUS DIGS FARTHER SOUTH, THE SURFACE LOW WILL PROGRESS SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC; CONCURRENTLY, THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
ALSO PUSH SLIGHTLY SOUTH, BUT WITH BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY, A WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL PREVENT THE FRONT
FROM ADVANCING INTO OUR AREA. THIS WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES LOW FOR
OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT
THE NIGHT, SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR ENOUGH FOR A MILD RIDGE/VALLEY
TEMPERATURE SPLIT. MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SOME OF OUR COOLEST
SPOTS COULD PLUMMET INTO THE UPPER 50S OVERNIGHT; HOWEVER, THE
POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS WAS ENOUGH TO HOLD OFF ON A MORE PRONOUNCED
RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT AT THIS TIME, AND MINTS WERE KEPT IN THE LOWER
60S FOR NOW, WITH VALLEY FOG EXPECTED YET AGAIN FOR MAINSTEM RIVER
VALLEYS.
BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL ARRIVE IN THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY AS THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTS NORTH FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. GIVEN THE ASSOCIATED BROAD AREA OF POSITIVE
VORTICITY ADVECTION ALOFT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY, FORCING WILL BE
MORE IDEAL FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS,
PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR AREA. THESE RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE BOLSTERED BY ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ADVECTION VIA
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS; LREF MEAN PWATS WILL BE ABOVE THE 90TH
PERCENTILE COMPARED TO CLIMATOLOGY, WITH A MOIST AIR MASS EXPECTED
TO BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT SUNDAY
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
RAIN CHANCES RETURN DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
LIFTS NORTH AND BECOMES LESS DEFINED, TAKING ON THE FORM OF A
NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE WITHIN BROADER TROUGHING IN THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS. THE EASTWARD PUSH OF THIS WAVE WILL
ONCE AGAIN PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS
AND STORMS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WILL
INDUCE A SHIFT TOWARDS MORE SOUTHERLY WINDS, BUT WITH RICH
MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE, DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S OR
PERHAPS EVEN LOW 70S. FOLLOWING MONDAY'S RAIN CHANCES, MODEL
GUIDANCE DIVERGES WITH RESPECT TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN;
HOWEVER, ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF INTERMITTENT SHOWERS AND STORMS
APPEAR LIKELY AS BROAD TROUGHING TO OUR WEST WILL ALLOW ADDITIONAL
IMPULSES TO ROTATE INTO OUR FORECAST AREA. ALSO, SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES APPEAR LIKELY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
AS EASTERN KENTUCKY SITS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING EXTENDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 729 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILED OVER THE TERMINALS AT TAF ISSUANCE. ANY
LOCALIZED FOG IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS AT FORECAST ISSUANCE WILL
BURN OFF BY 13 TO 14Z BUT SHOULD NOT HAVE ANY IMPACTS ON THE TAF
SITES. OTHERWISE, HIGH CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD AND
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHALLOW CUMULUS FIELD
FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KTS BY ~15Z AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...CMC
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...FAGAN
AVIATION...GEERTSON
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