918
FXUS63 KJKL 051851
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
251 PM EDT FRI JUN 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES RISE TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S BY THE START OF
THE WEEKEND.
- DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY, BUT A PATTERN
SHIFT WILL BRING DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BACK TO
THE REGION FROM SUNDAY INTO NEW WORK WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 242 PM EDT FRI JUN 5 2026
HIGH PRESSURE GETS SHUNTED SOUTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH
WESTERLY FLOW AND A PASSING SHORTWAVE IMPINGING SOUTH WITHIN THIS
FLOW ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WEAK FLOW
THEN DEVELOPS SATURDAY NIGHT AS NARROW UPPER RIDGING BUILDS WELL OFF
TO THE NORTH, WITH SOME CONNECTION TO THE LINGERING RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST US. MEANWHILE, A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH TO THE
NORTHERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY, BECOMING SITUATED IN A WEST-EAST FASHION
WELL NORTH OF THE AREA BY DAWN SUNDAY.
A DRIER AIR MASS LINGERS THROUGH TONIGHT KEEPING THE ATMOSPHERE
STABLE, BUT MOISTURE AND WEAK INSTABILITY WILL BEGIN TO MOVE UP THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, THEN MOVE INTO MUCH OF THE REST
OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AS A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY. LOW-END POPS ARE INTRODUCED FOR THE
LAST HOUR OF THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD JUST BEFORE 12Z SUNDAY AS
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE, INSTABILITY, AND FORCING FOR ASCENT BECOME
PRESENT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE AN UPWARDS TREND AS THE AREA WILL
RESIDE WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH THE MORE
NOTABLE UPWARDS TREND WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING WARM/MOISTURE ADVECTION.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 546 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2026
THE LONG TERM PERIOD OPENS WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NEW ENGLAND, WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE LOCATED IN QUEBEC, WITH A COLD FRONT DRAPED INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
CONUS DIGS FARTHER SOUTH, THE SURFACE LOW WILL PROGRESS SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC; CONCURRENTLY, THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
ALSO PUSH SLIGHTLY SOUTH, BUT WITH BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY, A WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL PREVENT THE FRONT
FROM ADVANCING INTO OUR AREA. THIS WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES LOW FOR
OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT
THE NIGHT, SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR ENOUGH FOR A MILD RIDGE/VALLEY
TEMPERATURE SPLIT. MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SOME OF OUR COOLEST
SPOTS COULD PLUMMET INTO THE UPPER 50S OVERNIGHT; HOWEVER, THE
POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS WAS ENOUGH TO HOLD OFF ON A MORE PRONOUNCED
RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT AT THIS TIME, AND MINTS WERE KEPT IN THE LOWER
60S FOR NOW, WITH VALLEY FOG EXPECTED YET AGAIN FOR MAINSTEM RIVER
VALLEYS.
BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL ARRIVE IN THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY AS THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTS NORTH FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. GIVEN THE ASSOCIATED BROAD AREA OF POSITIVE
VORTICITY ADVECTION ALOFT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY, FORCING WILL BE
MORE IDEAL FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS,
PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR AREA. THESE RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE BOLSTERED BY ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ADVECTION VIA
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS; LREF MEAN PWATS WILL BE ABOVE THE 90TH
PERCENTILE COMPARED TO CLIMATOLOGY, WITH A MOIST AIR MASS EXPECTED
TO BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT SUNDAY
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
RAIN CHANCES RETURN DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
LIFTS NORTH AND BECOMES LESS DEFINED, TAKING ON THE FORM OF A
NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE WITHIN BROADER TROUGHING IN THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS. THE EASTWARD PUSH OF THIS WAVE WILL
ONCE AGAIN PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS
AND STORMS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WILL
INDUCE A SHIFT TOWARDS MORE SOUTHERLY WINDS, BUT WITH RICH
MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE, DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S OR
PERHAPS EVEN LOW 70S. FOLLOWING MONDAY'S RAIN CHANCES, MODEL
GUIDANCE DIVERGES WITH RESPECT TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN;
HOWEVER, ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF INTERMITTENT SHOWERS AND STORMS
APPEAR LIKELY AS BROAD TROUGHING TO OUR WEST WILL ALLOW ADDITIONAL
IMPULSES TO ROTATE INTO OUR FORECAST AREA. ALSO, SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES APPEAR LIKELY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
AS EASTERN KENTUCKY SITS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING EXTENDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT FRI JUN 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILED OVER THE TERMINALS AT TAF ISSUANCE. ANY
LOCALIZED FOG IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS AT FORECAST ISSUANCE WILL BURN
OFF BY 12 TO 13Z BUT SHOULD NOT HAVE ANY IMPACTS ON THE TAF
SITES. OTHERWISE, HIGH CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD AND
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHALLOW CUMULUS FIELD
FROM THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KTS BY ~15Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...FAGAN
AVIATION...CMC
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