968
FXUS63 KJKL 051916
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
316 PM EDT FRI JUN 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES RISE TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S BY THE START OF
THE WEEKEND.
- DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY, BUT A PATTERN
SHIFT WILL BRING DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BACK TO
THE REGION FROM SUNDAY INTO NEW WORK WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 242 PM EDT FRI JUN 5 2026
HIGH PRESSURE GETS SHUNTED SOUTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH
WESTERLY FLOW AND A PASSING SHORTWAVE IMPINGING SOUTH WITHIN THIS
FLOW ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WEAK FLOW
THEN DEVELOPS SATURDAY NIGHT AS NARROW UPPER RIDGING BUILDS WELL OFF
TO THE NORTH, WITH SOME CONNECTION TO THE LINGERING RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST US. MEANWHILE, A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH TO THE
NORTHERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY, BECOMING SITUATED IN A WEST-EAST FASHION
WELL NORTH OF THE AREA BY DAWN SUNDAY.
A DRIER AIR MASS LINGERS THROUGH TONIGHT KEEPING THE ATMOSPHERE
STABLE, BUT MOISTURE AND WEAK INSTABILITY WILL BEGIN TO MOVE UP THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, THEN MOVE INTO MUCH OF THE REST
OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AS A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY. LOW-END POPS ARE INTRODUCED FOR THE
LAST HOUR OF THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD JUST BEFORE 12Z SUNDAY AS
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE, INSTABILITY, AND FORCING FOR ASCENT BECOME
PRESENT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE AN UPWARDS TREND AS THE AREA WILL
RESIDE WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH THE MORE
NOTABLE UPWARDS TREND WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING WARM/MOISTURE ADVECTION.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM EDT FRI JUN 5 2026
AFTER A DRY AND TRANQUIL PERIOD, THE EXTENDED BRINGS BACK CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION AND KEEPS THESE CHANCES IN PLACE EVERY DAY FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.
THE STRONG RIDGE THAT'S BEEN IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN KY AND MUCH OF
THE FAR SOUTHEAST CONUS WILL BEGIN TO DEGRADE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH, ALLOWING FOR
LOWERING HEIGHTS AND FOR FRONTAL BOUNDARIES TO FINALLY BE ABLE TO
PROGRESS SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE CWA. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL REACH
THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY MORNING, CONNECTED TO A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND, AND ANOTHER LOW MOVING
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. IT WILL QUICKLY DROP SOUTH INTO EASTERN KY
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY, BUT WILL THEN STALL OVERNIGHT, BEFORE THE
WEST SIDE OF THE STATE SEES THE FRONT CONTINUE TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO INCREASING
HEIGHTS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE OHIO VALLEY, WHILE A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL LOW TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST TRAVELING ALONG THE OUTSIDE
EDGE OF THE RIDGE, THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM WILL ALSO MOVE
NORTHWARD, PIVOTING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FRONT NORTHWARD AS A
WARM FRONT (IN WESTERN KY), BUT KEEPING IT STATIONARY ACROSS EASTERN
KY. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN POSITIONED ACROSS EASTERN KY THROUGH
TUESDAY AS THE ABOVE-MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW WEAKENS INTO A
SHORTWAVE AND MOVES EAST ACROSS THE STATE. THE SURFACE FRONT WILL
FINALLY LIFT COMPLETELY NORTH OF THE STATE AND DISSIPATE ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF.
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY AND EVEN INTO
FRIDAY, EASTERN KY WILL FIND ITSELF ON THE RETURN FLOW SIDE OF THE
SURFACE HIGH, WITH CONTINUED SW FLOW WHICH WILL ALLOW MOISTURE AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BOTH DAYS, ESPECIALLY DURING DAYTIME PEAK
HEATING/MIXING.
AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER, WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING AROUND
EASTERN KY FOR A FEW DAYS, DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STAY
FAIRLY STEADY-STATE, BUT WARM AND HUMID, IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S,
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THEN AS THE FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH
ON WEDNESDAY AND WARMER RETURN FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO MODIFY WARMER,
INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO BE VERY MILD, IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S
THROUGH THE PERIOD. OVERALL NOT EXPECTING ANY LARGE AIRMASS CHANGES,
SO ALSO NOT EXPECTING ANY SWINGS IN TEMPERATURE.
AS MENTIONED AT THE BEGINNING, SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE
ON TAP EACH DAY, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH PEAK HEATING
AND MIXING. BEST DAILY CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE FROM MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSES FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS
THE REGION ALLOWING FOR EXTRA LIFT/ENERGY, COMBINING WITH THE
PIVOTING WARM FRONT ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, AND THEN
INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD TO
OUR EAST.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT FRI JUN 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILED OVER THE TERMINALS AT TAF ISSUANCE. ANY
LOCALIZED FOG IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS AT FORECAST ISSUANCE WILL BURN
OFF BY 12 TO 13Z BUT SHOULD NOT HAVE ANY IMPACTS ON THE TAF
SITES. OTHERWISE, HIGH CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD AND
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHALLOW CUMULUS FIELD
FROM THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KTS BY ~15Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...CMC
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