447
FXUS63 KJKL 060738
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
338 AM EDT SAT JUN 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT, BUT A PATTERN
SHIFT WILL BRING DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BACK TO
THE REGION FROM SUNDAY ON INTO NEW WORK WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT SAT JUN 6 2026
ANOTHER FAIR AND SEASONABLY MILD EARLY MORNING IS UNDERWAY ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH JUST SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 50S IN THE COOLER VALLEYS TO THE
MID/UPPER 60S ON THE THERMAL BELT RIDGES AND EXPOSED OPEN TERRAIN.
THE LATEST SURFACE WEATHER MAP SHOWS AN !1020 MB SURFACE HIGH NOW
SITUATED OFF OF THE CAROLINAS, DISPLACED EAST OF A 500 HPA RIDGE
AXIS ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. UPSTREAM, A SHALLOW TROUGH IS
PROPAGATING FROM THE UPPER MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND UPPER
MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE IS PASSING THROUGH THE OTTAWA VALLEY VICINITY OUT
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WHILE A COLD FRONT IS DRAPED FROM THE SURFACE
REFLECTION SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND INTO
WISCONSIN, IOWA AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ALSO OF NOTE IS A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER WESTERN TEXAS AND EASTERN NEW
MEXICO.
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRUSH NORTH OF THE
COMMONWEALTH TODAY WHILE THE RIDGING IS BRIEFLY SHUNTED SOUTHWARD.
THE TROUGH'S ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY BUT WILL THEN STALL, ABANDONED AS THE TROUGH
DEPARTS INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY IS FAVORED TO STAY FULLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AS HEIGHTS REBOUND OVER THE COMMONWEALTH
BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THOSE HEIGHTS WILL
CONTINUE TO REBOUND ON SUNDAY AS A TRANSIENT PSEUDO-OMEGA-SHAPED
500HPA RIDGE PUMPS UP FROM THE OHIO VALLEY NORTHWARD INTO ONTARIO
WHILE THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OPENS AND EJECTS
NORTHEAST TO THE VICINITY OF KANSAS CITY, MO BY 00Z MONDAY. PWATS
WILL RISE THROUGHOUT THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD, FIRST WITH MOISTURE
POOLING OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT STAGNATING TO OUR NORTH
TODAY/TONIGHT, THEN ON SUNDAY WITH CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION
WITHIN DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. A WEAK PERTURBATION WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW MAY SPARK ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION ON SUNDAY (MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING), GENERALLY NEAR AND NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN
PARKWAY.
IN SENSIBLE WEATHER TERMS, LOOK FOR A FAIR AND VERY WARM SATURDAY
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 80S WITH A MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
FOLLOW TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. IT WILL BE
PARTLY SUNNY AND WARM YET AGAIN ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
80S FOR MOST, THOUGH IT WILL BE MORE HUMID. THERE COULD ALSO BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, MAINLY NEAR AND NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN
PARKWAY.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM EDT FRI JUN 5 2026
AFTER A DRY AND TRANQUIL PERIOD, THE EXTENDED BRINGS BACK CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION AND KEEPS THESE CHANCES IN PLACE EVERY DAY FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.
THE STRONG RIDGE THAT'S BEEN IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN KY AND MUCH OF
THE FAR SOUTHEAST CONUS WILL BEGIN TO DEGRADE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH, ALLOWING FOR
LOWERING HEIGHTS AND FOR FRONTAL BOUNDARIES TO FINALLY BE ABLE TO
PROGRESS SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE CWA. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL REACH
THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY MORNING, CONNECTED TO A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND, AND ANOTHER LOW MOVING
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. IT WILL QUICKLY DROP SOUTH INTO EASTERN KY
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY, BUT WILL THEN STALL OVERNIGHT, BEFORE THE
WEST SIDE OF THE STATE SEES THE FRONT CONTINUE TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO INCREASING
HEIGHTS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE OHIO VALLEY, WHILE A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL LOW TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST TRAVELING ALONG THE OUTSIDE
EDGE OF THE RIDGE, THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM WILL ALSO MOVE
NORTHWARD, PIVOTING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FRONT NORTHWARD AS A
WARM FRONT (IN WESTERN KY), BUT KEEPING IT STATIONARY ACROSS EASTERN
KY. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN POSITIONED ACROSS EASTERN KY THROUGH
TUESDAY AS THE ABOVE-MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW WEAKENS INTO A
SHORTWAVE AND MOVES EAST ACROSS THE STATE. THE SURFACE FRONT WILL
FINALLY LIFT COMPLETELY NORTH OF THE STATE AND DISSIPATE ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF.
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY AND EVEN INTO
FRIDAY, EASTERN KY WILL FIND ITSELF ON THE RETURN FLOW SIDE OF THE
SURFACE HIGH, WITH CONTINUED SW FLOW WHICH WILL ALLOW MOISTURE AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BOTH DAYS, ESPECIALLY DURING DAYTIME PEAK
HEATING/MIXING.
AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER, WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING AROUND
EASTERN KY FOR A FEW DAYS, DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STAY
FAIRLY STEADY-STATE, BUT WARM AND HUMID, IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S,
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THEN AS THE FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH
ON WEDNESDAY AND WARMER RETURN FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO MODIFY WARMER,
INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO BE VERY MILD, IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S
THROUGH THE PERIOD. OVERALL NOT EXPECTING ANY LARGE AIRMASS CHANGES,
SO ALSO NOT EXPECTING ANY SWINGS IN TEMPERATURE.
AS MENTIONED AT THE BEGINNING, SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE
ON TAP EACH DAY, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH PEAK HEATING
AND MIXING. BEST DAILY CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE FROM MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSES FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS
THE REGION ALLOWING FOR EXTRA LIFT/ENERGY, COMBINING WITH THE
PIVOTING WARM FRONT ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, AND THEN
INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD TO
OUR EAST.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT SAT JUN 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO PASS OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. PATCHY FOG IS
ALSO POSSIBLE THROUGH DAYBREAK BUT SHOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED TO
THE VALLEYS AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO EFFECT ANY TAF LOCATIONS.
ADDITIONALLY, SHALLOW DIURNAL CUMULUS FIELD IS EXPECTED FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
BUT WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS AFTER 14-15Z.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GEERTSON/GINNICK
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