135
FXUS63 KJKL 060753
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
353 AM EDT SAT JUN 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
- DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
- RAIN CHANCES PEAK MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGH MOISTURE
SUPPORTING A RISK FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
- HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS REMAINING GENERALLY IN THE 80S.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT SAT JUN 6 2026
ANOTHER FAIR AND SEASONABLY MILD EARLY MORNING IS UNDERWAY ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH JUST SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 50S IN THE COOLER VALLEYS TO THE
MID/UPPER 60S ON THE THERMAL BELT RIDGES AND EXPOSED OPEN TERRAIN.
THE LATEST SURFACE WEATHER MAP SHOWS AN !1020 MB SURFACE HIGH NOW
SITUATED OFF OF THE CAROLINAS, DISPLACED EAST OF A 500 HPA RIDGE
AXIS ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. UPSTREAM, A SHALLOW TROUGH IS
PROPAGATING FROM THE UPPER MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND UPPER
MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE IS PASSING THROUGH THE OTTAWA VALLEY VICINITY OUT
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WHILE A COLD FRONT IS DRAPED FROM THE SURFACE
REFLECTION SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND INTO
WISCONSIN, IOWA AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ALSO OF NOTE IS A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER WESTERN TEXAS AND EASTERN NEW
MEXICO.
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRUSH NORTH OF THE
COMMONWEALTH TODAY WHILE THE RIDGING IS BRIEFLY SHUNTED SOUTHWARD.
THE TROUGH'S ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY BUT WILL THEN STALL, ABANDONED AS THE TROUGH
DEPARTS INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY IS FAVORED TO STAY FULLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AS HEIGHTS REBOUND OVER THE COMMONWEALTH
BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THOSE HEIGHTS WILL
CONTINUE TO REBOUND ON SUNDAY AS A TRANSIENT PSEUDO-OMEGA-SHAPED
500HPA RIDGE PUMPS UP FROM THE OHIO VALLEY NORTHWARD INTO ONTARIO
WHILE THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OPENS AND EJECTS
NORTHEAST TO THE VICINITY OF KANSAS CITY, MO BY 00Z MONDAY. PWATS
WILL RISE THROUGHOUT THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD, FIRST WITH MOISTURE
POOLING OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT STAGNATING TO OUR NORTH
TODAY/TONIGHT, THEN ON SUNDAY WITH CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION
WITHIN DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. A WEAK PERTURBATION WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW MAY SPARK ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION ON SUNDAY (MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING), GENERALLY NEAR AND NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN
PARKWAY.
IN SENSIBLE WEATHER TERMS, LOOK FOR A FAIR AND VERY WARM SATURDAY
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 80S WITH A MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
FOLLOW TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. IT WILL BE
PARTLY SUNNY AND WARM YET AGAIN ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
80S FOR MOST, THOUGH IT WILL BE MORE HUMID. THERE COULD ALSO BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, MAINLY NEAR AND NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN
PARKWAY.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT SAT JUN 6 2026
THE PERIOD SHOULD START WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS SHARPLY NORTHWARD OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAKENING
UPPER LOW (CURRENTLY OVER WEST TX) WILL BE RIDING UP THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THE RIDGE WHILE A TROUGH AMPLIFIES SOUTHEASTWARD ON THE
EASTERN SIDE. A SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN
TROUGH SHOULD BE NEAR OR NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD, LOSING SOUTHWARD MOMENTUM AS ITS SUPPORTING TROUGH DEPARTS.
A RATHER MOIST AIR MASS SHOULD BE IN PLACE OVER OUR AREA SOUTH OF
THE FRONT. WITH INSTABILITY WANING AND RIDGING OVERHEAD, SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL PROBABLY BE DRY, DESPITE THE POSSIBLE PROXIMITY OF THE
FRONT.
A MODEST REMNANT TROUGH FROM THE WESTERN UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO
RIPPLE/RIDE THROUGH THE RIDGE ON MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND RESULT IN
GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FALLS OVER US. AT THE SAME TIME, OUR LOW LEVEL
FLOW IS FORECAST TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND PROVIDE
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AS WHAT'S LEFT OF THE FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH.
THIS WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN OUR HIGHEST POP OF THE WEEK AS
CONVECTION (LARGELY DIURNAL) OCCURS. EVEN WITH THE TROUGH PASSING
OVER, OUR FLOW ALOFT SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK AND LIMIT STORM
ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER, HIGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE (PW NEAR 2" IN THE
GFS) WOULD SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
THE UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
REESTABLISHES OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THERE
IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS TO HOW STRONG THIS RENEWED RIDGING WILL
BE. IF IT'S MODEST, IT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME DIURNAL
DESTABILIZATION AND PREVENT DEEP CONVECTION, ESPECIALLY IF A WEAK
COLD FRONT CAN APPROACH FROM THE NORTH. EVEN IF ITS STRONGER, THE
RIDGE MAY BE TO OUR NORTHWEST AND ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
OVER US ON ITS PERIPHERY. THAT BEING THE CASE, A POP WILL REMAIN
IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, BUT WITH A LOWER PROBABILITY
COMPARED TO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT SAT JUN 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO PASS OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. PATCHY FOG IS
ALSO POSSIBLE THROUGH DAYBREAK BUT SHOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED TO
THE VALLEYS AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO EFFECT ANY TAF LOCATIONS.
ADDITIONALLY, SHALLOW DIURNAL CUMULUS FIELD IS EXPECTED FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
BUT WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS AFTER 14-15Z.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...HAL/GEERTSON
AVIATION...GEERTSON/GINNICK
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