251
FXUS63 KJKL 101932
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
332 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT, MUGGY, AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER TAKES HOLD FOR THURSDAY.
AFTERNOON HIGHS AROUND 90 DEGREES COMBINED WITH HIGH HUMIDITY
WILL PUSH PEAK HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 95 AND 100 DEGREES.
- A PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT BRINGS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WITH A THREAT FOR STRONG
STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
- HIGH PRESSURE USHERS IN A BRIEF BREAK OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR
FOR SATURDAY, BEFORE UNSETTLED WEATHER AND RAIN CHANCES RETURN
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 915 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2026
HAVE TRIMMED BACK THE HIGH POP IN OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES AS THE
CONCENTRATED CONVECTION LOOKS LIKE IT WILL CONTINUE TO PARALLEL
OUR NORTHEAST BORDER AND REMAIN LARGELY IN RLX'S AREA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 639 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2026
IN SPITE OF EXCELLENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT, PWATS NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL MAXIMUMS, AND FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR WARM LAYER
RAIN PROCESSES, SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL HAS NOT MATERIALIZED AS
MUCH OF GUIDANCE HAD SUGGESTED, LIKELY DUE AT LEAST IN PART TO TOO
MARGINAL OF FORCING. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS REMAINING LARGELY CONFINED
TO FAR EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY AND HAS NOT BEEN
PARTICULARLY HEAVY, THUS THE FLOOD WATCH WAS CANCELLED EARLY.
TODAY'S POPS AND QPF WERE LOWERED DRAMATICALLY WITH THIS UPDATE.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2026
MUGGY AND MILD CONDITIONS PERSIST EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY WITH JUST VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER AT MOST LOCATIONS
AND PATCHY FOG FOR OTHERS. TEMPERATURES RANGE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
MID 70S, GENERALLY AT OR WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF THE STICKY DEW
POINTS. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC IMAGERY SHOWS RELATIVELY DISORGANIZED
CONVECTION FROM A REMNANT MCS EXTENDING FROM LEXINGTON-MOUNT
STERLING NORTHWARD TO LAKE ERIE, JUST AHEAD OF A MODEST 500 HPA
VORT MAX AND SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS IS ALL EMBEDDED WITHIN
A MEAN RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WHILE TROUGHING IS AMPLIFYING
OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS. ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY UNDER THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE, PWATS REMAIN NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL MAXIMUMS
BETWEEN 1.6 AND 1.8 INCHES ACROSS THE JKL CWA AND ARE LOCALLY OVER
2.0 INCHES FURTHER NORTH IN THE VICINITY OF THE MCS REMNANTS.
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING, MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
THE MCS REMNANTS AND UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE ESE
TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
REMAINS A QUESTION AS OVERALL FORCING AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS
RATHER WEAK; HOWEVER, THE RAP13 AND OTHER GUIDANCE DOES SUPPORT
MODERATE TO STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH A LOW-LEVEL 850 HPA JET
MAX OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS TO PASS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
THROUGH DAYBREAK BEFORE WEAKENING. IF CONVECTION IS ABLE TO
MAINTAIN, CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR EFFICIENT WARM RAINFALL
PROCESSES AMIDST SKINNY CAPE AND A HIGHLY SATURATED ENVIRONMENT,
YIELDING TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. WEAK CORFIDI UPSHEAR VECTORS ALSO
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR BACKBUILDING AS WELL. THIS BEING THE
CASE, THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED THROUGHOUT
THE MORNING HOURS FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT RENEWED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT, STRENGTHENING AND TRAINING RAINFALL. THE FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. ONCE THAT VORT MAX DIVES INTO VIRGINIA
AND WEST VIRGINIA BY AROUND 14Z, LINGERING CONVECTION WILL BE MORE
SPARSE AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING FOLLOWS THE TROUGH. HOWEVER, THERE
WILL STILL BE A FEW SUBTLE PERTURBATIONS IN THE UPPER LEVELS AND
THEY MIGHT STILL BE ABLE TO SPARK ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE AFTERNOON. FOR THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT, EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL BE ON THE NORTHWESTERN FRINGE OF A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS, WHICH SHOULD LEAD
TO FAIR SKIES AND RADIATIVE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR FOG
FORMATION IN THE TYPICALLY FAVORED RIVER VALLEY LOCALES. LOOKING
AHEAD TO THURSDAY, THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE NEW WEEK ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA AS 850 HPA TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO 19-20C.
THIS SHOULD SUPPORT DAILY MAXIMUMS NOT FAR FROM 90F, COMING
WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF THE DAYS DAILY RECORD HIGHS. ANOTHER
VORT MAX DROPPING FROM OHIO INTO WEST VIRGINIA WILL BRUSH THE
NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY, LIKELY LEADING TO A
PERIOD OF GREATER CLOUD COVER AND LOW CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
(ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED AT BEST). THE SHADING FROM THE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER PLUS ANY PRECIPITATION ALSO LEND CREDENCE
TO THE IDEA THAT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW THE DAILY RECORDS.
IN SENSIBLE WEATHER TERMS, THE VERY WARM AND MUGGY WEATHER PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE MOST PREVALENT THIS MORNING, PRIMARILY NORTHEAST OF
US-421. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD PRODUCE TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND
THE POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING WHERE RAINFALL IS MOST PERSISTENT. RAIN
CHANCES DIMINISH AND DEPART DURING THE AFTERNOON, LEAVING INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE AND SULTRY HIGHS IN THE MID 80S FOR MOST. FOR
TONIGHT, IT WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND CONTINUED MUGGY WITH LOWS
RANGING IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOOKING AHEAD TO THURSDAY, IT
WILL BE A LITTLE HOTTER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90F.
A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL
PRIMARILY EAST OF I-75, BUT EVEN SO MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD STAY
RAIN-FREE.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2026
A QUICK LOOK AT THE 500-MB HEIGHTS REVEAL RIDGING LOCATED OVER
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN QUEBEC AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD. UPSTREAM TO THE WEST, LOW PRESSURE IS OCCLUDING
OVER EASTERN MANITOBA. THE SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. MEANWHILE, SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL REINFORCE RICH MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN
THIRD OF CONUS.
DEW POINTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S
TO MID 70S OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY. SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN MINIMAL THURSDAY NIGHT (UNDER 15%) INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. BY 12Z FRIDAY THE UPPER MIDWESTERN COLD FRONT
WILL HAVE ADVANCED TO NEAR THE LOWER OHIO RIVER. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT. MODELS DEPICT A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD AND
ALONG THE COLD FRONT, WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S,
PWATS AROUND 1.8-1.9 INCHES, AND MUCAPE NEARING 2500 TO 3000 J/KG.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE,
THOUGH THE SYSTEM WILL BE PROGRESSIVE, SO THAT SHOULD KEEP ANY
FLOODING THREAT ISOLATED. QUICK CLEARING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
SHOULD ALLOW FOR FOG TO FORM IN THE RIVER VALLEYS FRIDAY NIGHT.
ON SATURDAY, THE COLD FRONT KEEPS PROGRESSING INTO THE SOUTHEAST,
LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NORTHERLY
WINDS IN ITS WAKE. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE JKL CWA
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUDS
AT FIRST, FOLLOWED BY RENEWED SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES. WITH
AMPLE MOISTURE FEEDING NORTHWARD AROUND AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
IN THE EASTERN GULF, SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES RETURN FOR SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE MID
80S THROUGH SUNDAY, BEFORE THE SECOND COLD FRONT RESULTS IN
COOLER HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
LOW TEMPERATURES REMAIN ELEVATED THURSDAY NIGHT, SETTLING INTO
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, FRIDAY NIGHT'S LOW TEMPERATURES ARE POISED TO BE 10
DEGREES COOLER. THESE COOLER LOW TEMPERATURES PERSIST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2026
VFR AND HIGH END MVFR (DUE TO CEILINGS) CONDITIONS WERE PRESENT TO
START THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, THE CEILINGS WERE RISING AND WILL ALLOW
FOR MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS FROM LATE AFTERNOON WELL INTO THE
NIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY IN THE EVENING IN SOUTHEAST KY, AND SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CAN'T BE RULED OUT OVERNIGHT AND
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY IN EXTREME EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN KY.
HOWEVER, THEIR POTENTIAL IS TOO NEGLIGIBLE TO ADDRESS IN TAFS. FOG
WITH IFR CONDITIONS IS FORECAST IN VALLEY LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST KY, BUT IS NOT EXPECTED
AT TAF SITES.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...HAL/GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...GINNICK/GEERTSON
AVIATION...HAL
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