176
FXUS63 KJKL 101942
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
342 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT, MUGGY, AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER TAKES HOLD FOR THURSDAY.
AFTERNOON HIGHS AROUND 90 DEGREES COMBINED WITH HIGH HUMIDITY
WILL PUSH PEAK HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 95 AND 100 DEGREES.
- A PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT BRINGS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WITH A THREAT FOR STRONG
STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
- HIGH PRESSURE USHERS IN A BRIEF BREAK OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR
FOR SATURDAY, BEFORE UNSETTLED WEATHER AND RAIN CHANCES RETURN
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 915 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2026
HAVE TRIMMED BACK THE HIGH POP IN OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES AS THE
CONCENTRATED CONVECTION LOOKS LIKE IT WILL CONTINUE TO PARALLEL
OUR NORTHEAST BORDER AND REMAIN LARGELY IN RLX'S AREA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 639 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2026
IN SPITE OF EXCELLENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT, PWATS NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL MAXIMUMS, AND FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR WARM LAYER
RAIN PROCESSES, SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL HAS NOT MATERIALIZED AS
MUCH OF GUIDANCE HAD SUGGESTED, LIKELY DUE AT LEAST IN PART TO TOO
MARGINAL OF FORCING. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS REMAINING LARGELY CONFINED
TO FAR EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY AND HAS NOT BEEN
PARTICULARLY HEAVY, THUS THE FLOOD WATCH WAS CANCELLED EARLY.
TODAY'S POPS AND QPF WERE LOWERED DRAMATICALLY WITH THIS UPDATE.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2026
MUGGY AND MILD CONDITIONS PERSIST EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY WITH JUST VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER AT MOST LOCATIONS
AND PATCHY FOG FOR OTHERS. TEMPERATURES RANGE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
MID 70S, GENERALLY AT OR WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF THE STICKY DEW
POINTS. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC IMAGERY SHOWS RELATIVELY DISORGANIZED
CONVECTION FROM A REMNANT MCS EXTENDING FROM LEXINGTON-MOUNT
STERLING NORTHWARD TO LAKE ERIE, JUST AHEAD OF A MODEST 500 HPA
VORT MAX AND SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS IS ALL EMBEDDED WITHIN
A MEAN RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WHILE TROUGHING IS AMPLIFYING
OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS. ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY UNDER THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE, PWATS REMAIN NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL MAXIMUMS
BETWEEN 1.6 AND 1.8 INCHES ACROSS THE JKL CWA AND ARE LOCALLY OVER
2.0 INCHES FURTHER NORTH IN THE VICINITY OF THE MCS REMNANTS.
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING, MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
THE MCS REMNANTS AND UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE ESE
TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
REMAINS A QUESTION AS OVERALL FORCING AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS
RATHER WEAK; HOWEVER, THE RAP13 AND OTHER GUIDANCE DOES SUPPORT
MODERATE TO STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH A LOW-LEVEL 850 HPA JET
MAX OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS TO PASS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
THROUGH DAYBREAK BEFORE WEAKENING. IF CONVECTION IS ABLE TO
MAINTAIN, CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR EFFICIENT WARM RAINFALL
PROCESSES AMIDST SKINNY CAPE AND A HIGHLY SATURATED ENVIRONMENT,
YIELDING TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. WEAK CORFIDI UPSHEAR VECTORS ALSO
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR BACKBUILDING AS WELL. THIS BEING THE
CASE, THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED THROUGHOUT
THE MORNING HOURS FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT RENEWED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT, STRENGTHENING AND TRAINING RAINFALL. THE FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. ONCE THAT VORT MAX DIVES INTO VIRGINIA
AND WEST VIRGINIA BY AROUND 14Z, LINGERING CONVECTION WILL BE MORE
SPARSE AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING FOLLOWS THE TROUGH. HOWEVER, THERE
WILL STILL BE A FEW SUBTLE PERTURBATIONS IN THE UPPER LEVELS AND
THEY MIGHT STILL BE ABLE TO SPARK ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE AFTERNOON. FOR THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT, EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL BE ON THE NORTHWESTERN FRINGE OF A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS, WHICH SHOULD LEAD
TO FAIR SKIES AND RADIATIVE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR FOG
FORMATION IN THE TYPICALLY FAVORED RIVER VALLEY LOCALES. LOOKING
AHEAD TO THURSDAY, THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE NEW WEEK ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA AS 850 HPA TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO 19-20C.
THIS SHOULD SUPPORT DAILY MAXIMUMS NOT FAR FROM 90F, COMING
WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF THE DAYS DAILY RECORD HIGHS. ANOTHER
VORT MAX DROPPING FROM OHIO INTO WEST VIRGINIA WILL BRUSH THE
NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY, LIKELY LEADING TO A
PERIOD OF GREATER CLOUD COVER AND LOW CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
(ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED AT BEST). THE SHADING FROM THE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER PLUS ANY PRECIPITATION ALSO LEND CREDENCE
TO THE IDEA THAT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW THE DAILY RECORDS.
IN SENSIBLE WEATHER TERMS, THE VERY WARM AND MUGGY WEATHER PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE MOST PREVALENT THIS MORNING, PRIMARILY NORTHEAST OF
US-421. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD PRODUCE TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND
THE POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING WHERE RAINFALL IS MOST PERSISTENT. RAIN
CHANCES DIMINISH AND DEPART DURING THE AFTERNOON, LEAVING INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE AND SULTRY HIGHS IN THE MID 80S FOR MOST. FOR
TONIGHT, IT WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND CONTINUED MUGGY WITH LOWS
RANGING IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOOKING AHEAD TO THURSDAY, IT
WILL BE A LITTLE HOTTER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90F.
A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL
PRIMARILY EAST OF I-75, BUT EVEN SO MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD STAY
RAIN-FREE.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2026
THE FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS
PRESENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST. BY THE START OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD, THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF THE CWA,
BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE
SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY, POPS
ARE STARTING TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY WITH EACH PASSING MODEL RUN;
HOWEVER, GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT ENOUGH THAT THE OVERALL MESSAGE
IS UNCHANGED. ANALYZING THE LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS AHEAD OF
FRIDAY’S FRONTAL PASSAGE, A POTENT THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. STOUT MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
BE UNDERWAY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY, BUT A DISCONNECT REMAINS BETWEEN
THE THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC PROFILES. FORECAST WIND SHEAR VALUES
REMAIN MEAGER, WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES STAYING LESS THAN 25 KNOTS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA THROUGH FROPA. EVEN WITH WEAK KINEMATICS,
STEEP LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH BOTH MUCAPE AND MLCAPE RANGING FROM
2,000 TO 2,500 J/KG WILL PROVIDE AMPLE INSTABILITY. ADDITIONALLY,
DCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 800 TO 900 J/KG POINT TOWARD A WET
MICROBURST ENVIRONMENT WHERE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS, SOME OF WHICH
COULD REACH SEVERE LIMITS, WILL BE POSSIBLE. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES RANGING FROM 1.80 TO 1.90 INCHES ALSO LEND CREDIT TO HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL. FORTUNATELY, THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE
PROGRESSIVE, LIMITING THE OVERALL FLASH FLOODING THREAT.
NONETHELESS, THIS COMBINATION OF CONVECTIVE INGREDIENTS HAS PROMPTED
A DAY 3 SPC MARGINAL RISK FOR THE ENTIRE AREA, WITH A SLIGHT RISK
FOR THE FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA, AS WELL AS A DAY 3 WPC
MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. ONCE FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS,
SKIES WILL CLEAR AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. PRE-FRONTAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S, BUT WEAK
CAA BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP INTO THE LOW
TO MID-60S FRIDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FIRMLY BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. DAYTIME HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S, WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGE FROM THE LOW
TO MID-60S. UNFORTUNATELY, THIS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
PUSHED OUT OF THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION. THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING
INCREASING SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES BEGINNING SUNDAY MORNING AND
PERSISTING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
ARRIVES WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, WHICH IS
HIGHLIGHTED BY A DAY 5 WPC MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. IT
IS WORTH NOTING, HOWEVER, THAT MODEL CONSENSUS DEGRADES
SIGNIFICANTLY GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND THIS SECOND FRONT.
EXTENDED GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS QUICKLY DIVERGE, WITH THE ECMWF
REMAINING ACTIVE WHILE THE GFS PROVIDES A LULL IN ACTIVITY UNTIL
WEDNESDAY. NONETHELESS, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THESE PERSISTENT RAIN
CHANCES AND SUBSEQUENT CLOUD COVER, TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY, TUESDAY,
AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE NOTABLY COOLER, AVERAGING ABOUT 10 TO 15
DEGREES LOWER THAN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
IN SHORT, THE REGION WILL EXPERIENCE A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
DRIVEN BY TWO COLD FRONTS. THE FIRST FRONT BRINGS A LINE OF SHOWERS
AND STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF
BREAK WITH PLEASANT WEATHER ON SATURDAY. A SECOND COLD FRONT ARRIVES
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
LOCKING IN MUCH COOLER, BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2026
VFR AND HIGH END MVFR (DUE TO CEILINGS) CONDITIONS WERE PRESENT TO
START THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, THE CEILINGS WERE RISING AND WILL ALLOW
FOR MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS FROM LATE AFTERNOON WELL INTO THE
NIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY IN THE EVENING IN SOUTHEAST KY, AND SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CAN'T BE RULED OUT OVERNIGHT AND
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY IN EXTREME EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN KY.
HOWEVER, THEIR POTENTIAL IS TOO NEGLIGIBLE TO ADDRESS IN TAFS. FOG
WITH IFR CONDITIONS IS FORECAST IN VALLEY LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST KY, BUT IS NOT EXPECTED
AT TAF SITES.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...HAL/GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...HAL
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