732
FXUS63 KJKL 102029
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
429 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT, MUGGY, AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER TAKES HOLD FOR THURSDAY.
AFTERNOON HIGHS AROUND 90 DEGREES COMBINED WITH HIGH HUMIDITY
WILL PUSH PEAK HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 95 AND 100 DEGREES.
- A PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT BRINGS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WITH A THREAT FOR STRONG
STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
- HIGH PRESSURE USHERS IN A BRIEF BREAK OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR
FOR SATURDAY, BEFORE UNSETTLED WEATHER AND RAIN CHANCES RETURN
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 428 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2026
A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS DEPARTING TO OUR EAST LATE
TODAY AND GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS ARE RISING. THIS IS INHIBITING DEEP
CONVECTION. HOWEVER, WILL NOT RULE OUT SOME LIMITED DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH EARLY EVENING IN SOUTHEASTERN KY, CLOSEST TO THE
DEPARTING TROUGH. OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY, ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL BE RIPPLING THROUGH RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF THE FIRST
TROUGH. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT WARM AND HUMID
AIR INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST, AND THE INTERACTION COULD
LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS SUGGEST IF ANYTHING
HAPPENS IT WOULD PROBABLY BE RATHER SPARSE AND PROBABLY OVER THE
EXTREME EASTERN OR SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
WAVE ALOFT DEPARTS TO THE EAST THURSDAY EVENING AND SHOULD LEAVE
US DRY DURING THE NIGHT. A LITTLE BIT LARGER AND MORE SIGNIFICANT
WAVE WILL BE APPROACHING BY DAWN ON FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT IT
LOOKS LIKE PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE LONG TERM PERIOD, BUT
CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO INCREASE.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2026
THE FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS
PRESENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST. BY THE START OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD, THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF THE CWA,
BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE
SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY, POPS
ARE STARTING TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY WITH EACH PASSING MODEL RUN;
HOWEVER, GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT ENOUGH THAT THE OVERALL MESSAGE
IS UNCHANGED. ANALYZING THE LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS AHEAD OF
FRIDAY’S FRONTAL PASSAGE, A POTENT THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. STOUT MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
BE UNDERWAY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY, BUT A DISCONNECT REMAINS BETWEEN
THE THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC PROFILES. FORECAST WIND SHEAR VALUES
REMAIN MEAGER, WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES STAYING LESS THAN 25 KNOTS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA THROUGH FROPA. EVEN WITH WEAK KINEMATICS,
STEEP LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH BOTH MUCAPE AND MLCAPE RANGING FROM
2,000 TO 2,500 J/KG WILL PROVIDE AMPLE INSTABILITY. ADDITIONALLY,
DCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 800 TO 900 J/KG POINT TOWARD A WET
MICROBURST ENVIRONMENT WHERE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS, SOME OF WHICH
COULD REACH SEVERE LIMITS, WILL BE POSSIBLE. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES RANGING FROM 1.80 TO 1.90 INCHES ALSO LEND CREDIT TO HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL. FORTUNATELY, THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE
PROGRESSIVE, LIMITING THE OVERALL FLASH FLOODING THREAT.
NONETHELESS, THIS COMBINATION OF CONVECTIVE INGREDIENTS HAS PROMPTED
A DAY 3 SPC MARGINAL RISK FOR THE ENTIRE AREA, WITH A SLIGHT RISK
FOR THE FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA, AS WELL AS A DAY 3 WPC
MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. ONCE FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS,
SKIES WILL CLEAR AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. PRE-FRONTAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S, BUT WEAK
CAA BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP INTO THE LOW
TO MID-60S FRIDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FIRMLY BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. DAYTIME HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S, WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGE FROM THE LOW
TO MID-60S. UNFORTUNATELY, THIS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
PUSHED OUT OF THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION. THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING
INCREASING SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES BEGINNING SUNDAY MORNING AND
PERSISTING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. IT IS WORTH NOTING, HOWEVER,
THAT MODEL CONSENSUS DEGRADES SIGNIFICANTLY GOING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK BEHIND THIS SECOND FRONT. EXTENDED GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS
QUICKLY DIVERGE, WITH THE ECMWF REMAINING ACTIVE WHILE THE GFS
PROVIDES A LULL IN ACTIVITY UNTIL WEDNESDAY. NONETHELESS, UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THESE PERSISTENT RAIN CHANCES AND SUBSEQUENT
CLOUD COVER, TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY, TUESDAY, AND WEDNESDAY WILL
BE NOTABLY COOLER, AVERAGING ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES LOWER THAN
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
IN SHORT, THE REGION WILL EXPERIENCE A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
DRIVEN BY TWO COLD FRONTS. THE FIRST FRONT BRINGS A LINE OF SHOWERS
AND STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF
BREAK WITH PLEASANT WEATHER ON SATURDAY. A SECOND COLD FRONT ARRIVES
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
LOCKING IN MUCH COOLER, BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2026
VFR AND HIGH END MVFR (DUE TO CEILINGS) CONDITIONS WERE PRESENT TO
START THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, THE CEILINGS WERE RISING AND WILL ALLOW
FOR MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS FROM LATE AFTERNOON WELL INTO THE
NIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY IN THE EVENING IN SOUTHEAST KY, AND SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CAN'T BE RULED OUT OVERNIGHT AND
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY IN EXTREME EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN KY.
HOWEVER, THEIR POTENTIAL IS TOO NEGLIGIBLE TO ADDRESS IN TAFS. FOG
WITH IFR CONDITIONS IS FORECAST IN VALLEY LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST KY, BUT IS NOT EXPECTED
AT TAF SITES.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...HAL
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