940
FXUS63 KJKL 110939
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
539 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT, MUGGY, AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER TAKES HOLD FOR TODAY. AFTERNOON
HIGHS AROUND 90 DEGREES COMBINED WITH HIGH HUMIDITY WILL PUSH PEAK
HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 95 AND 100 DEGREES.
- A PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT BRINGS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WITH A THREAT FOR STRONG
STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
- HIGH PRESSURE USHERS IN A BRIEF BREAK OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR
FOR SATURDAY, BEFORE UNSETTLED WEATHER AND RAIN CHANCES RETURN
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 539 AM EDT THU JUN 10 2026
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS ARE NOTED OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING THROUGH THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
TENDRILS OF FOG ARE NOTED IN THE DEEPER SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY RIVER
VALLEYS ALONG WITH SOME PASSING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS; OTHERWISE, SKIES
ARE CLEAR. THE QUIET WEATHER IS COURTESY OF A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AND UP
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN OHIO VALLEY. THIS IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY
LINGERING 500 HPA RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHEAST NORTHWARD
INTO QUEBEC. MEANWHILE, A TROUGH IS IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. AN EMBEDDED SUBTLE SHORTWAVE IS
EJECTING EASTWARD FROM THIS TROUGH ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THIS MORNING ATTENDED BY AN MCS, WHILE A MUCH MORE SUBSTANTIAL
DIGGING SHORTWAVE IS CARVING ITS WAY THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS NOTED OVER
NORTHEAST MANITOBA WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD TO A
SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN KANSAS.
THE AFOREMENTIONED MCS IS SHOWN IN THE CAMS TO CONTINUE DECAYING
THIS MORNING AS IT RIDES THROUGH THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING. WHATEVER
PART OF THIS SYSTEM THAT SUSTAINS WILL CROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY AND
POINTS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON. QUESTIONS REMAIN AS TO
HOW MUCH REVITALIZATION MAY OCCUR WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT CROSSES THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY, AS IT SEEMS THAT EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE BLOWOFF MAY
TEND TO OUTPACE THE SYSTEM'S ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW/UPPER LEVEL FORCING
AND LIMIT OVERALL DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE DISTURBANCE. IT ALSO
APPEARS THAT LAPSE RATES REMAIN WEAK IN A LAYER OF DRY AIR BETWEEN
850 AND 600 HPA. NOT SURPRISINGLY, THE MODELED PARAMETER SPACE IS
NOT ALL THAT NOTEWORTHY EITHER -- RAP13 SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ONLY 500
TO 1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE (HIGHEST NORTH OF I-64) WITH ONLY WEAK SHEAR.
IT IS WORTH NOTING HOWEVER, THAT IF DEEP CONVECTION IS ABLE TO
SUSTAIN, DCAPE VALUES IN THE VICINITY OF 900 J/KG IN THE NORTH COULD
SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS, ESPECIALLY IF THE UPSTREAM MCS REMAINS INTACT
ENOUGH OR REDEVELOPS SUFFICIENTLY TO IMPACT THE NORTHEASTERNMOST
COUNTIES OF OUR CWA. SPC HAS MAINTAINED A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER FROM FLEMING DOWN TO PIKE COUNTIES. ASIDE FROM ANY
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL, IT WILL BE A HOT AND HUMID DAY WITH 850 HPA
TEMPERATURES IN THE 18-20C RANGE, SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S, WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH HIGH DEW POINTS WILL LEAD TO
APPARENT TEMPERATURES IN THE 95 TO 100F RANGE FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
QUIET WEATHER RETURNS AREA-WIDE FOR TONIGHT AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING
BEGINS TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE ALOFT AS THE NEXT AND MUCH MORE VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE EJECTS NORTHEAST INTO ONTARIO. AS IT DOES SO, THE
ASSOCIATED SECOND SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ALONG WITH IT AND SWEEP A
COLD FRONT TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY, LIKELY STRETCHING FROM DETROIT TO
LOUISVILLE TO THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL BY 12Z FRIDAY. WITH RESPECT TO
THE OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL ON FRIDAY, THERE HAS BEEN SOME QUESTION
IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE AS TO WHETHER THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE TOO
QUICKLY FOR SUBSTANTIAL DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION OVER WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA, THOUGH THE RECENT RUNS OF THE RAP AND HRRR SEEM
TO BE FAVORING A SLOWER ARRIVAL THAN PRIOR RUNS, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
FOR BETTER INSTABILITY DEVELOPMENT. THE 3Z RAP13 SUPPORTED 2000 TO
3000 J/KG OF MLCAPE BUILDING AHEAD OF THE FRONT, HIGHEST OVER
SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY, WHILE DCAPE EXCEEDED 1000 J/KG; BUT OVERALL
SHEAR WILL BE WEAK. THUS IF A CELL CAN BRIEFLY BECOME ORGANIZED,
LOCALIZED DOWNBURST WINDS COULD SOON FOLLOW. ACCORDINGLY, SPC HAS
MAINTAINED A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK FOR THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA, WITH THE EASTERN PORTIONS WHERE GREATER DESTABILIZATION SHOULD
OCCUR UNDER A SLIGHT RISK. PWATS WILL ALSO RISE BACK TO NEAR 2.0
INCHES AS THE FRONT NEARS, BUT THE OVERALL PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE
SYSTEM SHOULD PRECLUDE ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME ISOLATED HIGH WATER
CONCERNS.
IN SENSIBLE WEATHER TERMS, LOOK FOR A SULTRY THURSDAY WITH
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND A LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM,
WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER NORTHEAST KENTUCKY. IT WILL BE HOT WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90F WITH HEAT INDICES 5 TO 10
DEGREES WARMER FOR MOST. FOR TONIGHT, FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED BUT IT STAYS VERY WARM WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE 70S. FOR
FRIDAY, LOOK FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE
MORNING TO MIDDAY HOURS CLOSER THE CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND THEN
INCREASE IN EXTENT/COVERAGE AS THEY DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG TO DAMAGING
WINDS GUSTS AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. IT WILL STILL BE WARM AND
MUGGY AHEAD OF THE STORMS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID
80S IN THE WEST TO NEAR 90F IN THE EAST.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 539 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2026
TO BE ISSUED SHORTLY...
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 152 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WERE PRESENT TO START THE PERIOD. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE TONIGHT AND DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY IN EXTREME EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY.
HOWEVER, THEIR POTENTIAL IS TOO LIMITED TO INCLUDE EVEN AS A
PROB30 IN THE TAFS. FOG WITH IFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
IN VALLEY LOCATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY, BUT SHOULD NOT IMPACT ANY TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT TONIGHT AND AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS ON THURSDAY - AWAY FROM
ANY STRAY THUNDERSTORM.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...HAL/GREIF/GEERTSON
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