165
FXUS63 KJKL 111755
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
155 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT, MUGGY, AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER TAKES HOLD FOR TODAY. AFTERNOON
HIGHS AROUND 90 DEGREES COMBINED WITH HIGH HUMIDITY WILL PUSH PEAK
HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 95 AND 100 DEGREES.
- A PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT BRINGS SHOWERS AND NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
ON FRIDAY, WITH A THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.
- HIGH PRESSURE USHERS IN A BRIEF BREAK OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR
FOR SATURDAY, BEFORE UNSETTLED WEATHER AND RAIN CHANCES RETURN
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2026
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST ASIDE FROM ADDING IN
THE LATEST SURFACE OBS AND PREPARING GRIDS FOR THE 18Z TAFS. GRIDS
HAVE BEEN SAVED AND SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 735 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2026
A DECAYING MCS IS APPROACHING NORTHERN KENTUCKY FROM SOUTHERN
INDIANA AT UPDATE TIME. WHILE CONTINUING TO WEAKEN FOR NOW,
THE LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS IS SUGGESTING A POOL OF BETTER
INSTABILITY PASSING FROM CENTRAL KENTUCKY INTO THE MID-OHIO VALLEY
BY LATE MORNING. SHEAR AND FORCING ARE MINIMAL, BUT IT IS
CONCEIVABLE THAT SOME OF THIS INSTABILITY MAY AID IN MAINTAINING
SOME WEAK CONVECTION INTO AREA NEAR AND NORTH OF I-64 BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW, BUT SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS WERE ADDED NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY FOR A
FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF MIDDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 539 AM EDT THU JUN 10 2026
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS ARE NOTED OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING THROUGH THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
TENDRILS OF FOG ARE NOTED IN THE DEEPER SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY RIVER
VALLEYS ALONG WITH SOME PASSING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS; OTHERWISE, SKIES
ARE CLEAR. THE QUIET WEATHER IS COURTESY OF A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AND UP
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN OHIO VALLEY. THIS IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY
LINGERING 500 HPA RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHEAST NORTHWARD
INTO QUEBEC. MEANWHILE, A TROUGH IS IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. AN EMBEDDED SUBTLE SHORTWAVE IS
EJECTING EASTWARD FROM THIS TROUGH ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THIS MORNING ATTENDED BY AN MCS, WHILE A MUCH MORE SUBSTANTIAL
DIGGING SHORTWAVE IS CARVING ITS WAY THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS NOTED OVER
NORTHEAST MANITOBA WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD TO A
SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN KANSAS.
THE AFOREMENTIONED MCS IS SHOWN IN THE CAMS TO CONTINUE DECAYING
THIS MORNING AS IT RIDES THROUGH THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING. WHATEVER
PART OF THIS SYSTEM THAT SUSTAINS WILL CROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY AND
POINTS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON. QUESTIONS REMAIN AS TO
HOW MUCH REVITALIZATION MAY OCCUR WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT CROSSES THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY, AS IT SEEMS THAT EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE BLOWOFF MAY
TEND TO OUTPACE THE SYSTEM'S ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW/UPPER LEVEL FORCING
AND LIMIT OVERALL DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE DISTURBANCE. IT ALSO
APPEARS THAT LAPSE RATES REMAIN WEAK IN A LAYER OF DRY AIR BETWEEN
850 AND 600 HPA. NOT SURPRISINGLY, THE MODELED PARAMETER SPACE IS
NOT ALL THAT NOTEWORTHY EITHER -- RAP13 SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ONLY 500
TO 1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE (HIGHEST NORTH OF I-64) WITH ONLY WEAK SHEAR.
IT IS WORTH NOTING HOWEVER, THAT IF DEEP CONVECTION IS ABLE TO
SUSTAIN, DCAPE VALUES IN THE VICINITY OF 900 J/KG IN THE NORTH COULD
SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS, ESPECIALLY IF THE UPSTREAM MCS REMAINS INTACT
ENOUGH OR REDEVELOPS SUFFICIENTLY TO IMPACT THE NORTHEASTERNMOST
COUNTIES OF OUR CWA. SPC HAS MAINTAINED A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER FROM FLEMING DOWN TO PIKE COUNTIES. ASIDE FROM ANY
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL, IT WILL BE A HOT AND HUMID DAY WITH 850 HPA
TEMPERATURES IN THE 18-20C RANGE, SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S, WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH HIGH DEW POINTS WILL LEAD TO
APPARENT TEMPERATURES IN THE 95 TO 100F RANGE FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
QUIET WEATHER RETURNS AREA-WIDE FOR TONIGHT AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING
BEGINS TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE ALOFT AS THE NEXT AND MUCH MORE VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE EJECTS NORTHEAST INTO ONTARIO. AS IT DOES SO, THE
ASSOCIATED SECOND SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ALONG WITH IT AND SWEEP A
COLD FRONT TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY, LIKELY STRETCHING FROM DETROIT TO
LOUISVILLE TO THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL BY 12Z FRIDAY. WITH RESPECT TO
THE OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL ON FRIDAY, THERE HAS BEEN SOME QUESTION
IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE AS TO WHETHER THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE TOO
QUICKLY FOR SUBSTANTIAL DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION OVER WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA, THOUGH THE RECENT RUNS OF THE RAP AND HRRR SEEM
TO BE FAVORING A SLOWER ARRIVAL THAN PRIOR RUNS, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
FOR BETTER INSTABILITY DEVELOPMENT. THE 3Z RAP13 SUPPORTED 2000 TO
3000 J/KG OF MLCAPE BUILDING AHEAD OF THE FRONT, HIGHEST OVER
SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY, WHILE DCAPE EXCEEDED 1000 J/KG; BUT OVERALL
SHEAR WILL BE WEAK. THUS IF A CELL CAN BRIEFLY BECOME ORGANIZED,
LOCALIZED DOWNBURST WINDS COULD SOON FOLLOW. ACCORDINGLY, SPC HAS
MAINTAINED A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK FOR THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA, WITH THE EASTERN PORTIONS WHERE GREATER DESTABILIZATION SHOULD
OCCUR UNDER A SLIGHT RISK. PWATS WILL ALSO RISE BACK TO NEAR 2.0
INCHES AS THE FRONT NEARS, BUT THE OVERALL PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE
SYSTEM SHOULD PRECLUDE ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME ISOLATED HIGH WATER
CONCERNS.
IN SENSIBLE WEATHER TERMS, LOOK FOR A SULTRY THURSDAY WITH
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND A LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM,
WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER NORTHEAST KENTUCKY. IT WILL BE HOT WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90F WITH HEAT INDICES 5 TO 10
DEGREES WARMER FOR MOST. FOR TONIGHT, FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED BUT IT STAYS VERY WARM WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE 70S. FOR
FRIDAY, LOOK FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE
MORNING TO MIDDAY HOURS CLOSER THE CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND THEN
INCREASE IN EXTENT/COVERAGE AS THEY DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG TO DAMAGING
WINDS GUSTS AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. IT WILL STILL BE WARM AND
MUGGY AHEAD OF THE STORMS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID
80S IN THE WEST TO NEAR 90F IN THE EAST.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2026
AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER ONTARIO DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL
PERSIST THERE THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND IT WILL BE THE MAIN INFLUENCE ON OUR
WEATHER. ONE OF THESE WILL BE PASSING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
SUNDAY, WORKING TO DEEPEN OVERALL TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
AND SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE JKL FORECAST
AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
DUE TO THE DEEPENING TROUGH, THERE WILL BE A BIT STRONGER FLOW ALOFT
AND MORE SHEAR (ALTHOUGH NOTHING PHENOMENAL) THAN DURING PRECEDING
RECENT ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS. SHOULD THERE BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY,
SOME STRONG STORMS WON'T BE RULED OUT ON SUNDAY, BUT THE DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY REMAINS UNCERTAIN. ONCE THE FRONT AND ITS INCLEMENT
WEATHER MOVE THROUGH, NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID AIR WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND CARRY INTO THE WORKWEEK.
MULTIPLE ADDITIONAL WAVES WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE EASTERN CONUS
TROUGH TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER, THERE IS MUCH LESS MODEL
AGREEMENT ON THEIR TIMING AND STRENGTH. THAT BEING THE CASE,
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR PRECIPITATION DROPS OFF CONSIDERABLY AFTER
MONDAY. THERE IS A GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT SOME SEMBLANCE OF AN
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL PERSIST, THOUGH, WHICH WOULD PREVENT ANY
RETURN TO OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2026
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH MUCH OF
THE TAF WINDOW. WIDESPREAD FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE
DEVELOPED AROUND THE 3,500 TO 4,500 FOOT LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON,
ALONG WITH REMNANT LOW CLOUDS FROM A DECAYING MCS BUT THESE CLOUDS
SHOULD STAY VFR BEFORE DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT. CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING AND LOWERING CLOUDS AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT THAT'S FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTHEAST AFTER 12Z/FRIDAY.
PROB30S ARE IN PLACE TO ACCOUNT FOR PULSE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF. ANY THUNDERSTORM
THAT DEVELOPS AT OR NEAR A TAF COULD BRING BRIEF REDUCTION IN
CATEGORY; AS WELL AS, GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS UPWARDS OF 15 KNOTS, THOSE WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT
BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. FRIDAY WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST SUSTAINED
AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 15 KNOTS.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...VORST
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...VORST
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