323
FXUS63 KJKL 120005 AAA
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
805 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT BRINGS SHOWERS AND NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA ON FRIDAY, WITH A THREAT FOR STRONG
STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
- HIGH PRESSURE USHERS IN A BRIEF BREAK OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR
FOR SATURDAY, BEFORE UNSETTLED WEATHER AND RAIN CHANCES RETURN
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 730 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2026
23Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST EFFECTIVELY
IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY. TO THE NORTHWEST,
A APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS PUSHING A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS
STEADILY TOWARD THE AREA BUT THESE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT
ANYTHING HERE UNTIL CLOSER TOWARD DAWN - IF AT ALL. THE NEARBY
HIGH IS HELPING TO CLEAR THE SKY AND SETTLING THE WINDS.
CURRENTLY, TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING IN THE VERY WARM MID TO
UPPER 80S. MEANWHILE, AMID SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH WITH
SOME GUSTS UP TO 15 MPH, DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE QUITE
HUMID UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THIS LEVEL OF MOISTURE IN THE AIR
RESULTED IN HEAT INDICES APPROACHING 100 DEGREES IN A FEW SPOTS
THIS AFTERNOON. NOW, THOUGH, CONDITIONS ARE IMPROVING WITH THE
APPROACHING SUNSET. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST MAINLY TO ADD IN THE
LATEST OBS AND TRENDS FOR THE T/TD/SKY GRIDS. DID ALSO TWEAK THE
POPS AND THUNDER CHANCES THROUGH DAWN PER THE LATEST CAMS
GUIDANCE. THESE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND
WEB SERVERS ALONG WITH A FRESHENING OF THE SAFS AND ZONES.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2026
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS IS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE BERMUDA HIGH. HOWEVER, TO THE WEST, A POTENT
SURFACE LOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE PRIMARY LOW IS LOCATED IN SOUTH-CENTRAL
CANADA WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES,
WHILE ANOTHER SURFACE WAVE RIDES ALONG THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT IN
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE SYNOPTIC FORCING
IS LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA, REMNANT OUTFLOW FROM
AN MCS THAT MOVED TOWARD THE REGION THIS MORNING IS PROVIDING A
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE DEVELOPING
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT MAINLY IN THE UPPER OHIO
RIVER VALLEY OF EASTERN OHIO, WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA, AND WEST
VIRGINIA. LOCALLY, THE FORECAST AREA IS STAYING DRY WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. ALONG WITH
THESE HOT TEMPERATURES, HEAT INDICES ARE REACHING INTO THE LOW TO
MID-90S.
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT, IT WILL CONTINUE TO
FEEL HOT AND HUMID ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
80S AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. AS MENTIONED
ABOVE, A DECAYING MCS MOVED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
THIS MORNING AND IS THE FOCAL POINT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THE BEST CHANCES REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA, THOUGH THERE IS A STRAY CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STORM DEVELOPING
THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY TO THE FAR
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ONCE DAYTIME HEATING WANES AND
SUNSET ARRIVES, ANY SHOWER OR STORM THAT DEVELOPS, ALONG WITH THE
WIDESPREAD CUMULUS DECK, WILL DISSIPATE, AND CLEARING SKIES ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT IN
THE DEEPEST RIVER VALLEYS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. TOWARD MORNING,
INCREASING CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AS A COLD FRONT DIVES SOUTHEAST OUT
OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. LIKE TODAY, THE REMNANTS OF THE
MORNING MCS ARE FORECAST TO DISSIPATE, WITH REDEVELOPMENT OCCURRING
ON THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY BRINGS THE COLD FRONT AND REMNANT MCS TO THE DOORSTEP OF THE
CWA, PROVIDING INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CAMS
ARE CONSISTENT IN KEEPING MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA DRY, AS THE DECAYING MORNING MCS IS FORECAST TO STABILIZE THAT
AIRMASS. HOWEVER, WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND SUBSEQUENT
DESTABILIZATION, SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST TO REDEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON, MAINLY ALONG AND EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE KY-40/KY-30/I-75
CORRIDOR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AHEAD OF FRIDAYS FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOW
THAT A POTENT THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION. STOUT MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE UNDERWAY AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY, BUT A DISCONNECT REMAINS BETWEEN THE THERMODYNAMIC
AND KINEMATIC PROFILES. FORECAST WIND SHEAR VALUES REMAIN MEAGER,
WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES STAYING LESS THAN 20 KNOTS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CWA THROUGH FROPA. EVEN WITH WEAK KINEMATICS, STEEP LAPSE RATES
COMBINED WITH BOTH MUCAPE AND MLCAPE RANGING FROM 2,000 TO 3,000
J/KG WILL PROVIDE AMPLE INSTABILITY. ADDITIONALLY, DCAPE VALUES
RANGING FROM 1,200 TO 1,400 J/KG POINT TOWARD A WET MICROBURST
ENVIRONMENT WHERE DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS, SOME OF WHICH COULD REACH
SEVERE LIMITS, WILL BE POSSIBLE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE
STARTED TO TREND DOWNWARD BUT STILL RANGE FROM 1.50 TO 1.70 INCHES,
LENDING CREDIT TO A HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL. FORTUNATELY, THE FRONT
IS FORECAST TO BE PROGRESSIVE, LIMITING THE OVERALL FLASH FLOODING
THREAT. NONETHELESS, THIS COMBINATION OF CONVECTIVE INGREDIENTS HAS
PROMPTED A DAY 2 SPC SLIGHT RISK FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA, AND A DAY 2 MARGINAL RISK FOR A TIER OF COUNTIES TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE SLIGHT RISK CONTOUR. A DAY 2 WPC MARGINAL RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE HEAVY RAINFALL
POTENTIAL TIED TO THE FRONT. ONCE FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS, SKIES WILL
CLEAR AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. PRE-FRONTAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S, BUT WEAK CAA
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP INTO THE LOW TO
MID-60S FRIDAY NIGHT.
IN SHORT, THE FORECAST TRANSITIONS FROM A HOT, MOSTLY DRY REGIME
DOMINATED BY THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INTO A MORE ACTIVE,
CONVECTIVE PERIOD ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT/DECAYING MCS MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH MOISTURE AND HIGH ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY
WILL OVERCOME WEAK WIND SHEAR ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BRINGING A RISK
OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE WET MICROBURSTS, PARTICULARLY TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS THREAT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED,
HOWEVER, AS THE PROGRESSIVE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA BY LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT, GIVING WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE AND A NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID
AIRMASS FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2026
AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER ONTARIO DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL
PERSIST THERE THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND IT WILL BE THE MAIN INFLUENCE ON OUR
WEATHER. ONE OF THESE WILL BE PASSING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
SUNDAY, WORKING TO DEEPEN OVERALL TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
AND SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE JKL FORECAST
AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
DUE TO THE DEEPENING TROUGH, THERE WILL BE A BIT STRONGER FLOW ALOFT
AND MORE SHEAR (ALTHOUGH NOTHING PHENOMENAL) THAN DURING PRECEDING
RECENT ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS. SHOULD THERE BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY,
SOME STRONG STORMS WON'T BE RULED OUT ON SUNDAY, BUT THE DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY REMAINS UNCERTAIN. ONCE THE FRONT AND ITS INCLEMENT
WEATHER MOVE THROUGH, NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID AIR WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND CARRY INTO THE WORKWEEK.
MULTIPLE ADDITIONAL WAVES WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE EASTERN CONUS
TROUGH TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER, THERE IS MUCH LESS MODEL
AGREEMENT ON THEIR TIMING AND STRENGTH. THAT BEING THE CASE,
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR PRECIPITATION DROPS OFF CONSIDERABLY AFTER
MONDAY. THERE IS A GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT SOME SEMBLANCE OF AN
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL PERSIST, THOUGH, WHICH WOULD PREVENT ANY
RETURN TO OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 805 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2026
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE
NIGHT. CLEARING SKIES THIS EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT WILL GIVE
WAY TO INCREASING AND LOWERING CLOUDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
TOWARDS DAWN AS IT DIVES SOUTHEAST INTO THIS PART OF THE STATE
JUST AFTER 12Z/FRIDAY. PROB30S ARE IN PLACE TO ACCOUNT FOR PULSE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH AT LEAST THE
START OF THE AFTERNOON FOR ALL TERMINALS ON FRIDAY. ANY
THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS AT OR NEAR A TAF SITE COULD BRING BRIEF
REDUCTION IN CATEGORY; AS WELL AS, GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW
WINDS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT, BUT
MAINLY BELOW 10 KTS BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. FOR FRIDAY WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST SUSTAINED AT AROUND 10 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 15 KTS.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...VORST/GREIF
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page