617
FXUS63 KJKL 120538
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
138 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT BRINGS SHOWERS AND NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA ON FRIDAY, WITH A RISK FOR GUSTY
WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN THE STRONGEST STORMS.
- HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY USHERS IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR ON
SATURDAY, BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER AND WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES
RETURN OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
- EXPECT COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK AS BROAD
TROUGHING DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN ALOFT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1145 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2026
LATEST CAMS GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THE CWA STAYS QUIET THROUGH DAWN
AS THE CONVECTION WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT BASICALLY FADES OUT
TO OUR WEST TOWARDS 12Z. ACCORDINGLY, NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE
MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH MAINLY JUST THE INCLUSION OF THE LATEST
OBS AND TRENDS FOR THE T/TD/SKY GRIDS. THESE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS ALONG WITH A FRESHENING
OF THE ZONES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 730 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2026
23Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST EFFECTIVELY
IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY. TO THE NORTHWEST,
A APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS PUSHING A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS
STEADILY TOWARD THE AREA BUT THESE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT
ANYTHING HERE UNTIL CLOSER TOWARD DAWN - IF AT ALL. THE NEARBY
HIGH IS HELPING TO CLEAR THE SKY AND SETTLING THE WINDS.
CURRENTLY, TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING IN THE VERY WARM MID TO
UPPER 80S. MEANWHILE, AMID SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH WITH
SOME GUSTS UP TO 15 MPH, DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE QUITE
HUMID UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THIS LEVEL OF MOISTURE IN THE AIR
RESULTED IN HEAT INDICES APPROACHING 100 DEGREES IN A FEW SPOTS
THIS AFTERNOON. NOW, THOUGH, CONDITIONS ARE IMPROVING WITH THE
APPROACHING SUNSET. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST MAINLY TO ADD IN THE
LATEST OBS AND TRENDS FOR THE T/TD/SKY GRIDS. DID ALSO TWEAK THE
POPS AND THUNDER CHANCES THROUGH DAWN PER THE LATEST CAMS
GUIDANCE. THESE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND
WEB SERVERS ALONG WITH A FRESHENING OF THE SAFS AND ZONES.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2026
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS IS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE BERMUDA HIGH. HOWEVER, TO THE WEST, A POTENT
SURFACE LOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE PRIMARY LOW IS LOCATED IN SOUTH-CENTRAL
CANADA WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES,
WHILE ANOTHER SURFACE WAVE RIDES ALONG THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT IN
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE SYNOPTIC FORCING
IS LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA, REMNANT OUTFLOW FROM
AN MCS THAT MOVED TOWARD THE REGION THIS MORNING IS PROVIDING A
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE DEVELOPING
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT MAINLY IN THE UPPER OHIO
RIVER VALLEY OF EASTERN OHIO, WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA, AND WEST
VIRGINIA. LOCALLY, THE FORECAST AREA IS STAYING DRY WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. ALONG WITH
THESE HOT TEMPERATURES, HEAT INDICES ARE REACHING INTO THE LOW TO
MID-90S.
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT, IT WILL CONTINUE TO
FEEL HOT AND HUMID ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
80S AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. AS MENTIONED
ABOVE, A DECAYING MCS MOVED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
THIS MORNING AND IS THE FOCAL POINT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THE BEST CHANCES REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA, THOUGH THERE IS A STRAY CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STORM DEVELOPING
THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY TO THE FAR
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ONCE DAYTIME HEATING WANES AND
SUNSET ARRIVES, ANY SHOWER OR STORM THAT DEVELOPS, ALONG WITH THE
WIDESPREAD CUMULUS DECK, WILL DISSIPATE, AND CLEARING SKIES ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT IN
THE DEEPEST RIVER VALLEYS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. TOWARD MORNING,
INCREASING CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AS A COLD FRONT DIVES SOUTHEAST OUT
OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. LIKE TODAY, THE REMNANTS OF THE
MORNING MCS ARE FORECAST TO DISSIPATE, WITH REDEVELOPMENT OCCURRING
ON THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY BRINGS THE COLD FRONT AND REMNANT MCS TO THE DOORSTEP OF THE
CWA, PROVIDING INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CAMS
ARE CONSISTENT IN KEEPING MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA DRY, AS THE DECAYING MORNING MCS IS FORECAST TO STABILIZE THAT
AIRMASS. HOWEVER, WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND SUBSEQUENT
DESTABILIZATION, SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST TO REDEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON, MAINLY ALONG AND EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE KY-40/KY-30/I-75
CORRIDOR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AHEAD OF FRIDAYS FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOW
THAT A POTENT THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION. STOUT MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE UNDERWAY AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY, BUT A DISCONNECT REMAINS BETWEEN THE THERMODYNAMIC
AND KINEMATIC PROFILES. FORECAST WIND SHEAR VALUES REMAIN MEAGER,
WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES STAYING LESS THAN 20 KNOTS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CWA THROUGH FROPA. EVEN WITH WEAK KINEMATICS, STEEP LAPSE RATES
COMBINED WITH BOTH MUCAPE AND MLCAPE RANGING FROM 2,000 TO 3,000
J/KG WILL PROVIDE AMPLE INSTABILITY. ADDITIONALLY, DCAPE VALUES
RANGING FROM 1,200 TO 1,400 J/KG POINT TOWARD A WET MICROBURST
ENVIRONMENT WHERE DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS, SOME OF WHICH COULD REACH
SEVERE LIMITS, WILL BE POSSIBLE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE
STARTED TO TREND DOWNWARD BUT STILL RANGE FROM 1.50 TO 1.70 INCHES,
LENDING CREDIT TO A HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL. FORTUNATELY, THE FRONT
IS FORECAST TO BE PROGRESSIVE, LIMITING THE OVERALL FLASH FLOODING
THREAT. NONETHELESS, THIS COMBINATION OF CONVECTIVE INGREDIENTS HAS
PROMPTED A DAY 2 SPC SLIGHT RISK FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA, AND A DAY 2 MARGINAL RISK FOR A TIER OF COUNTIES TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE SLIGHT RISK CONTOUR. A DAY 2 WPC MARGINAL RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE HEAVY RAINFALL
POTENTIAL TIED TO THE FRONT. ONCE FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS, SKIES WILL
CLEAR AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. PRE-FRONTAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S, BUT WEAK CAA
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP INTO THE LOW TO
MID-60S FRIDAY NIGHT.
IN SHORT, THE FORECAST TRANSITIONS FROM A HOT, MOSTLY DRY REGIME
DOMINATED BY THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INTO A MORE ACTIVE,
CONVECTIVE PERIOD ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT/DECAYING MCS MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH MOISTURE AND HIGH ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY
WILL OVERCOME WEAK WIND SHEAR ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BRINGING A RISK
OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE WET MICROBURSTS, PARTICULARLY TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS THREAT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED,
HOWEVER, AS THE PROGRESSIVE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA BY LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT, GIVING WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE AND A NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID
AIRMASS FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE GOVERNED BY BROAD TROUGHING
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES. AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINS OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK, AND A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL EJECT AROUND ITS
BACKSIDE AND INTO THE GREATER OHIO RIVER VALLEY IN THIS TIME FRAME.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE FIRST DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE
FORECAST AREA FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, GIVING CREDENCE TO
THE NOTION THAT WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST
AREA IN THIS TIME FRAME. WHILE MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD
AGREEMENT REGARDING THIS FIRST DISTURBANCE'S TIMING, THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING ITS AMPLITUDE. THAT LIMITS FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IN ANY POTENTIAL SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS AT THE CURRENT
MOMENT. SIMILAR THEMES LINGER THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD. INCREASING MODEL SPREAD MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT THE SPECIFIC PRECIPITATION FORECAST DETAILS DURING THE
SUBSEQUENT SHORTWAVE PASSAGES, BUT EACH DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO
REINFORCE THE OVERARCHING TROUGHING PATTERN ALOFT. SUCH A PATTERN
FAVORS COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES, AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK.
WHEN THE PERIOD OPENS ON SATURDAY EVENING, ALL EYES WILL BE ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR UPSTREAM CONVECTION. IF THE MORE AMPLIFIED MODEL
SOLUTIONS COME TO FRUITION, A SHARPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR STRONGER STORMS ON SATURDAY NIGHT IN
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE COMMONWEALTH. SOME OF THE AVAILABLE MACHINE
LEARNING, ANALOG, AND AI-ENHANCED FORECAST GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS
IDEA, BUT BY THE TIME ANY ACTIVITY REACHES OUR FORECAST AREA, IT
WILL BE WORKING AGAINST THE DIURNAL INSTABILITY CYCLE. RAIN CHANCES
DO NOT REACH OUR LAKE CUMBERLAND COUNTIES UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT ON
SUNDAY MORNING, AND THE STORMS COULD BE MOVING INTO A STABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER BY THEN. GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE,
IT IS PLAUSIBLE FOR VALLEY LOCALES TO THERMALLY DECOUPLE AFTER
SUNSET. THIS WOULD ALLOW EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING TO TAKE ROOT,
AND IN ACCORDANCE WITH LOCAL CLIMATOLOGICAL KNOWLEDGE, MODEST RIDGE
VALLEY SPLITS AND PATCHY VALLEY FOG WERE ADDED TO THE FORECAST GRIDS
FOR THIS TIME FRAME. ASSUMING CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS DOESN'T
INTERRUPT THESE CLASSIC DIURNAL PROCESSES, EASTERN VALLEYS SHOULD
DIP DOWN INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S BY MIDNIGHT. WEST OF I-75,
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY IN THE MID/UPPER 60S, AS THIS IS WHERE THE
GREATEST SKY COVER AND THE GREATEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE
FORECAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS RESOLVE ONLY MEAGER AMOUNTS OF MOSTLY-
ELEVATED CAPE BY THEN THOUGH, SO STORMS WOULD LIKELY SUCCUMB TO A
WEAKENING TREND AS THEY APPROACH I-75. FURTHERMORE, THEY WILL LIKELY
BE OUTRUNNING THE BETTER DYNAMIC SUPPORT ALOFT.
THE PARENT SHORTWAVE AXIS REACHES OUR PORTION OF THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE EUROPEAN FAMILY OF
FORECAST GUIDANCE MODELS CONTINUES TO RESOLVE A SHARPER ITERATION OF
THIS DISTURBANCE THAN ITS AMERICAN COUNTERPARTS, BUT BOTH AGREE IN
AN ARRIVAL TIME THAT OVERLAPS WITH PEAK DIURNAL HEATING. THE
MAGNITUDE OF SAID HEATING WILL LIKELY DEPEND ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE
OVERNIGHT/AM ACTIVITY AND HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER IT LEAVES BEHIND,
WHICH WILL THEN DETERMINE THE INSTABILITY PARAMETER SPACING FOR ANY
FRONTALLY FORCED PM CONVECTION. MESOSCALE DETAILS LIKE THIS ARE HARD
TO DETERMINE AT THE CURRENT TEMPORAL RANGE, BUT BASED ON THE MEDIUM-
RANGE CONVECTIVE GUIDANCE, THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR STRONGER STORMS
ON SUNDAY MAY BE IN SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
COMMONWEALTH. THANKFULLY, THIS SYSTEM LOOKS PROGRESSIVE, AND
RELATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER AIR WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE FORECAST AREA
AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL HELP TO REDUCE THE
RISK FOR HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS, BUT WE WILL NEED TO WATCH THE EFFECTS
OF TODAY'S CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ON SOILS IN THE CUMBERLAND BASIN
BEFORE WE COMPLETELY WRITE THIS SYSTEM OFF.
THE AFOREMENTIONED POST-FRONTAL CAA WILL YIELD PLEASANT CONDITIONS
IN EASTERN KENTUCKY TO START THE NEXT WORK WEEK. WE WILL BE WAKING
UP TO AM LOWS IN THE 50S ON MONDAY, TUESDAY, AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS
NEXT WEEK, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S. MEAN
PWATS IN THE LREF DATA GENERALLY DIP TO BELOW 1 INCH IN THIS TIME
FRAME, SO APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO THESE FORECAST
THERMOMETER READINGS. IN OTHER WORDS, IT WILL FEEL FANTASTIC OUTSIDE
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. A SECOND SHORTWAVE COULD SPARK
A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO IN SE KY ON MONDAY, BUT IT WILL BE WORKING
WITH LESS MOISTURE AND LOWER TEMPERATURES THAN ITS PREDECESSOR. MOST
OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY STRAY DRY AND ENJOY MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH THE NEXT SHOT AT AREA-WIDE RAIN CHANCES
HOLDING OFF UNTIL A THIRD, BETTER-DEFINED SHORTWAVE APPROACHES ON
EITHER WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. AS DISCUSSED IN THE INTRODUCTORY
PARAGRAPH, THERE IS TOO MUCH COMPOUNDING FORECAST UNCERTAINTY TO
HIGHLIGHT SENSIBLE WEATHER SPECIFICS THAT FAR OUT. IN THE MEANTIME
THOUGH, READERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO GET OUTSIDE AND ENJOY THIS
PLEASANT SUMMERTIME WEATHER FORECAST!
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 805 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2026
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE
NIGHT. CLEARING SKIES THIS EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT WILL GIVE
WAY TO INCREASING AND LOWERING CLOUDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
TOWARDS DAWN AS IT DIVES SOUTHEAST INTO THIS PART OF THE STATE
JUST AFTER 12Z/FRIDAY. PROB30S ARE IN PLACE TO ACCOUNT FOR PULSE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH AT LEAST THE
START OF THE AFTERNOON FOR ALL TERMINALS ON FRIDAY. ANY
THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS AT OR NEAR A TAF SITE COULD BRING BRIEF
REDUCTION IN CATEGORY; AS WELL AS, GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW
WINDS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT, BUT
MAINLY BELOW 10 KTS BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. FOR FRIDAY WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST SUSTAINED AT AROUND 10 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 15 KTS.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...MARCUS
AVIATION...VORST/GREIF
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page