127
FXUS63 KJKL 121850
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
250 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT BRINGS SHOWERS AND NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA ON FRIDAY, WITH A RISK FOR STRONG WIND
GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN THE STRONGEST STORMS.
- HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY USHERS IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR ON
SATURDAY, BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER AND WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES
RETURN OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
- EXPECT COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK AS BROAD
TROUGHING DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN ALOFT.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 211 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026
A PRIMARILY ZONAL PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH
THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD. A DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING, OUTRUNNING A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
LINGER NEAR/ALONG THE BORDER WITH TN AND VA TONIGHT. THIS FRONT THEN
REMAINS STATIONARY AND SLOWLY DISSIPATES INTO SATURDAY, WHEN ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND USHERS INCREASED MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
LINGER INTO THIS EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, WITH A
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF KY HIGHWAY 80. THUS, POPS WILL
DROP TO OR NEAR ZERO FOR PRETTY MUCH ALL AREAS BY DAWN SATURDAY. DEW
POINT TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES LOWER SATURDAY THAN
TODAY; THUS, WITH THE DRIER AIR MASS IN PLACE AIR TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SIMILAR TO TODAY, OR PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER, IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S.
WEAK WARM ADVECTION WILL ADVECT HIGHER DEW POINTS INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH 60S DEW POINTS OVERSPREADING THE AREA ONCE
AGAIN, WITH PERHAPS A LOWER-70S READING IN THE LAKE CUMBERLAND AREA
BY DAWN SUNDAY MORNING. WITH AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE, MODELS
SUGGEST AN MCS MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST TOWARD DAWN
SUNDAY, WITH POPS RISING ABOVE 50 PERCENT EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FAR
EASTERN KY BY 12Z SUNDAY.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026
THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE AN UPPER LOW IN THE
VICINITY OF ONTARIO AND HUDSON BAY WITH TROUGHINESS EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. A WAVE MOVING THROUGH THIS
TROUGH WILL SUPPORT A COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE JKL
FORECAST AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH, THERE WILL
BE A BIT STRONGER FLOW ALOFT AND MORE SHEAR (ALTHOUGH NOTHING
PHENOMENAL) THAN DURING PRECEDING RECENT ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS.
SHOULD THERE BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY, SOME STRONG STORMS WON'T BE
RULED OUT ON SUNDAY, BUT THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY REMAINS
UNCERTAIN. THIS IS PARTLY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF
CONVECTION, WITH A POTENTIAL FOR EARLY DAY CONVECTION LEFT OVER
FROM AN MCS ORIGINATING TO OUR WEST.
ONCE THE FRONT AND ITS INCLEMENT WEATHER MOVE THROUGH, NOTICEABLY
LESS HUMID AIR WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT AND CARRY INTO THE EARLY
PART OF THE WORKWEEK. ADDITIONAL WAVES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH, BUT TIMING/LOCATION VARIES FROM MODEL TO
MODEL AND RUN TO RUN, LEAVING LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF
THE FORECAST. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT WAVE LOOKS TO BE LATE IN THE
WEEK, SUPPORTING ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY OR
THURSDAY NIGHT. BRISK LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WOULD BRING WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR BACK INTO OUR AREA BRIEFLY
BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES, AND PROBABLY FUEL A ROUND OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 116 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, WITH BEST CHANCES SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF KSYM AND KIOB. CHANCES MAY LINGER BEYOND 00Z FOR THE
4 MORE SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN TAF LOCATIONS BASED ON TRENDS SINCE
ISSUANCE. OTHERWISE, ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS AT OR NEAR A
TAF SITE SHOULD BRING BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO MVFR/IFR OR PERHAPS BRIEFLY
LOWER, AS WELL AS GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS. SOUTHWESTERLY
TO WEST WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO NEAR 10 KTS THROUGH 18Z. WINDS
WILL TREND NORTHWESTERLY BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z AND THEN GRADUALLY
WEAKEN TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO END THE PERIOD. AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN AND WINDS SLACKEN LATE IN THE PERIOD, FOG SHOULD AFFECT
VALLEY LOCATIONS BY 04Z AND AFTER AND SOME OR ALL OF THE TAF SITES
COULD ALSO EXPERIENCE FOG LIFTING INTO THEM MAINLY FROM 06Z
ONWARD. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER FOG LIFTS/BURNS OFF
BETWEEN 11Z AND 14Z SATURDAY.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...CMC
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