692
FXUS63 KJKL 130230 AAA
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1030 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND COULD BECOME
LOCALLY DENSE IN THE VALLEYS AND THROUGH THE NORTHEAST PORTION
OF THE AREA.
- PASSING HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY USHERS IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR ON
SATURDAY, BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER AND WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES
RETURN LATER THAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
- EXPECT COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK AS BROAD
TROUGHING DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN ALOFT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1030 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH MAINLY JUST
THE INCLUSION OF THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS FOR THE T/TD/SKY
GRIDS AS WELL AS TAKING OUT THE THUNDER CHANCES. THESE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS ALONG WITH
A FRESHENING OF THE HWO, SAFS, AND ZONES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 735 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026
23Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT SETTLING INTO EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THIS IS MOSTLY DRY WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONGER
CONVECTION OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE STATE. STILL A STRAY SHOWER
OR STORM IS POSSIBLE AS THIS BOUNDARY SINKS DEEPER INTO THE AREA
ALONG WITH SOME SPRINKLES. CURRENTLY, AMID NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5
TO 10 MPH ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT AND LIGHT WINDS TO THE
SOUTH, TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO THE MID
80S IN THE SOUTH. MEANWHILE, DEWPOINTS VARY FROM THE LOWER 60S
WELL BEHIND THE BOUNDARY TO THE LOWER 70S ALONG IT AND JUST TO THE
SOUTH. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST MAINLY TO ADD IN THE LATEST OBS
AND TRENDS FOR THE T/TD/SKY GRIDS AS WELL AS TO TAMP DOWN THE POPS
AND THUNDER CHANCES THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING. LATER THIS
NIGHT DO EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP AND BECOME LOCALLY DENSE
IN THE VALLEYS AND PERHAPS FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST. THESE
ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS ALONG WITH
A FRESHENING OF THE HWO, SAFS, AND ZONES.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 211 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026
A PRIMARILY ZONAL PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH
THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD. A DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING, OUTRUNNING A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
LINGER NEAR/ALONG THE BORDER WITH TN AND VA TONIGHT. THIS FRONT THEN
REMAINS STATIONARY AND SLOWLY DISSIPATES INTO SATURDAY, WHEN ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND USHERS INCREASED MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
LINGER INTO THIS EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, WITH A
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF KY HIGHWAY 80. THUS, POPS WILL
DROP TO OR NEAR ZERO FOR PRETTY MUCH ALL AREAS BY DAWN SATURDAY. DEW
POINT TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES LOWER SATURDAY THAN
TODAY; THUS, WITH THE DRIER AIR MASS IN PLACE AIR TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SIMILAR TO TODAY, OR PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER, IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S.
WEAK WARM ADVECTION WILL ADVECT HIGHER DEW POINTS INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH 60S DEW POINTS OVERSPREADING THE AREA ONCE
AGAIN, WITH PERHAPS A LOWER-70S READING IN THE LAKE CUMBERLAND AREA
BY DAWN SUNDAY MORNING. WITH AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE, MODELS
SUGGEST AN MCS MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST TOWARD DAWN
SUNDAY, WITH POPS RISING ABOVE 50 PERCENT EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FAR
EASTERN KY BY 12Z SUNDAY.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026
THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE AN UPPER LOW IN THE
VICINITY OF ONTARIO AND HUDSON BAY WITH TROUGHINESS EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. A WAVE MOVING THROUGH THIS
TROUGH WILL SUPPORT A COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE JKL
FORECAST AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH, THERE WILL
BE A BIT STRONGER FLOW ALOFT AND MORE SHEAR (ALTHOUGH NOTHING
PHENOMENAL) THAN DURING PRECEDING RECENT ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS.
SHOULD THERE BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY, SOME STRONG STORMS WON'T BE
RULED OUT ON SUNDAY, BUT THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY REMAINS
UNCERTAIN. THIS IS PARTLY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF
CONVECTION, WITH A POTENTIAL FOR EARLY DAY CONVECTION LEFT OVER
FROM AN MCS ORIGINATING TO OUR WEST.
ONCE THE FRONT AND ITS INCLEMENT WEATHER MOVE THROUGH, NOTICEABLY
LESS HUMID AIR WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT AND CARRY INTO THE EARLY
PART OF THE WORKWEEK. ADDITIONAL WAVES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH, BUT TIMING/LOCATION VARIES FROM MODEL TO
MODEL AND RUN TO RUN, LEAVING LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF
THE FORECAST. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT WAVE LOOKS TO BE LATE IN THE
WEEK, SUPPORTING ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY OR
THURSDAY NIGHT. BRISK LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WOULD BRING WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR BACK INTO OUR AREA BRIEFLY
BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES, AND PROBABLY FUEL A ROUND OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 720 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026
AS A DRYING COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA CHANCES FOR A STRAY
SHOWER AND MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER THROUGH 02Z. WINDS OF LESS THAN 10
KTS WILL TREND FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST THROUGH 04Z AND THEN
GRADUALLY WEAKEN TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE INTO THE DEEP NIGHT. AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATER TONIGHT, FOG IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT
VALLEY LOCATIONS BY 04Z AND MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. AS A RESULT, SOME, OR ALL, OF THE TAF SITES COULD ALSO
EXPERIENCE FOG LIFTING INTO THEM THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
VFR CONDITIONS THEN RETURN AREA-WIDE BY 14Z SATURDAY.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...CMC/GREIF
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