187
FXUS63 KJKL 130445
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1245 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND COULD BECOME
LOCALLY DENSE IN THE VALLEYS AND THROUGH THE NORTHEAST PORTION
OF THE AREA.
- PASSING HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY USHERS IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR ON
SATURDAY, BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER AND WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES
RETURN LATER THAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
- EXPECT COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK AS BROAD
TROUGHING DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN ALOFT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1030 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH MAINLY JUST
THE INCLUSION OF THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS FOR THE T/TD/SKY
GRIDS AS WELL AS TAKING OUT THE THUNDER CHANCES. THESE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS ALONG WITH
A FRESHENING OF THE HWO, SAFS, AND ZONES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 735 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026
23Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT SETTLING INTO EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THIS IS MOSTLY DRY WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONGER
CONVECTION OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE STATE. STILL A STRAY SHOWER
OR STORM IS POSSIBLE AS THIS BOUNDARY SINKS DEEPER INTO THE AREA
ALONG WITH SOME SPRINKLES. CURRENTLY, AMID NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5
TO 10 MPH ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT AND LIGHT WINDS TO THE
SOUTH, TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO THE MID
80S IN THE SOUTH. MEANWHILE, DEWPOINTS VARY FROM THE LOWER 60S
WELL BEHIND THE BOUNDARY TO THE LOWER 70S ALONG IT AND JUST TO THE
SOUTH. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST MAINLY TO ADD IN THE LATEST OBS
AND TRENDS FOR THE T/TD/SKY GRIDS AS WELL AS TO TAMP DOWN THE POPS
AND THUNDER CHANCES THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING. LATER THIS
NIGHT DO EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP AND BECOME LOCALLY DENSE
IN THE VALLEYS AND PERHAPS FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST. THESE
ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS ALONG WITH
A FRESHENING OF THE HWO, SAFS, AND ZONES.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 211 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026
A PRIMARILY ZONAL PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH
THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD. A DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING, OUTRUNNING A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
LINGER NEAR/ALONG THE BORDER WITH TN AND VA TONIGHT. THIS FRONT THEN
REMAINS STATIONARY AND SLOWLY DISSIPATES INTO SATURDAY, WHEN ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND USHERS INCREASED MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
LINGER INTO THIS EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, WITH A
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF KY HIGHWAY 80. THUS, POPS WILL
DROP TO OR NEAR ZERO FOR PRETTY MUCH ALL AREAS BY DAWN SATURDAY. DEW
POINT TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES LOWER SATURDAY THAN
TODAY; THUS, WITH THE DRIER AIR MASS IN PLACE AIR TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SIMILAR TO TODAY, OR PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER, IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S.
WEAK WARM ADVECTION WILL ADVECT HIGHER DEW POINTS INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH 60S DEW POINTS OVERSPREADING THE AREA ONCE
AGAIN, WITH PERHAPS A LOWER-70S READING IN THE LAKE CUMBERLAND AREA
BY DAWN SUNDAY MORNING. WITH AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE, MODELS
SUGGEST AN MCS MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST TOWARD DAWN
SUNDAY, WITH POPS RISING ABOVE 50 PERCENT EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FAR
EASTERN KY BY 12Z SUNDAY.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1244 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2026
CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH IN THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FORECAST FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. CLUSTER ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT
THE GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN ABOVE-AVERAGE AGREEMENT THROUGH MID WEEK,
WITH A DOMINANT TROUGHING FEATURE IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES
WILL PROPAGATE AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THIS MEAN TROUGHING ALOFT IN
THIS TIME FRAME. AT FIRST, THEY WILL WORK TO REINFORCE THE ADVECTION
OF A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS
FAVORS SEASONABLY PLEASANT CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK IN EASTERN KENTUCKY, BUT THE APPROACH OF A DEEPER DISTURBANCE
AROUND MIDWEEK WILL ALLOW LOW LEVEL FLOW TO SHIFT BACK TO A MORE
SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY ORIENTATION. THE RESULTANT WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND MOISTURE RETURN WILL PRIME THE ATMOSPHERE FOR MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE LATTER STAGES OF THE PERIOD. THE DETAILS OF
THAT FORECAST LIE IN THE MESOSCALE, WHICH IS DIFFICULT TO DISCERN AT
THE CURRENT EXTENDED TEMPORAL RANGE. STILL, SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST GRIDS ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN PERSIST
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AS QUASI-ZONAL WNW FLOW SETS UP ALOFT.
THE PERIOD OPENS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY EVENING.
FRONTALLY-FORCED SHOWERS/STORMS AND THEIR ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER
WILL TAPER OFF BY MIDNIGHT, GIVING WAY TO FOG DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE
RECENTLY-WET GROUNDS, THIS FOG COULD EXTEND BEYOND THE TYPICAL
VALLEY LOCALES. FOR NOW, HAVE HANDLED THIS POTENTIAL IN THE GRIDS BY
CONFINING AREAL COVERAGE TO THE RIVER VALLEYS AND PLACING PATCHY FOG
COVERAGE ELSEWHERE. FOG LOOKS TO BURN OFF UNDER MOSTLY SKIES ON
MONDAY MORNING, BUT MONDAY'S TEMPERATURES MAY UNDER-PERFORM CURRENT
EXPECTATIONS. THE NBM MAXT GUIDANCE USED TO POPULATE THE LONG TERM
GRIDS IS WARMER THAN SOME OF TONIGHT'S DETERMINISTIC MODEL OUTPUT
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF A SECOND
SHORTWAVE, WHICH WILL STRUGGLE TO SPARK ANY MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES DUE TO THE DRIER NATURE OF THE CONTINENTAL AIRMASS BEHIND
THE PREVIOUS DAY'S FRONTAL PASSAGE. INSTEAD, THIS SECONDARY FEATURE
IS POISED TO PROVIDE CEMENT THE COOLER AIR, AND AFTERNOON HIGHS
SHOULD ACCORDINGLY STAY IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE 70S (AT LEAST). IF
THE COOLER NAM GUIDANCE IS CORRECT, SOME AREAS MAY ACTUALLY STRUGGLE
TO WARM ABOVE THE UPPER 60S ON MONDAY. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE MUCH
BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES FOR MID-JUNE, AND BELOW-NORMAL
THERMOMETER READINGS WILL STICK AROUND INTO TUESDAY. EXPECT
OVERNIGHT RIDGE-VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLITS, SUBSEQUENT RIVER VALLEY
FOG FORMATION, AND THEN ANOTHER AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S (MID TO UPPER 70S THIS TIME THOUGH).
AS HINTED AT EARLIER, A SHIFT IN SENSIBLE WEATHER CONDITIONS BEGINS
ON WEDNESDAY. SURFACE WINDS TURN SOUTHWESTERLY AND STRENGTHEN IN
THIS TIME FRAME, AND RECENT FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT GUSTS
COULD REACH SPEEDS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 MPH ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS YIELDS INCREASINGLY EFFECTIVE WAA AND MOISTURE RETURN, WHICH
THEN COMBINES WITH THE DYNAMIC SUPPORT FROM YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE ALOFT TO REINTRODUCE RAIN CHANCES TO THE FORECAST GRIDS.
THE SPECIFIC DETAILS REGARDING THE MODE AND INTENSITY OF THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY DEPEND ON THE EVOLUTION OF UPSTREAM
ACTIVITY. SEVERE WEATHER IS PLAUSIBLE IN THE MIDWEST/THE WABASH
RIVER VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY, AND THAT ACTIVITY COULD MOVE THROUGH THE
MEAN WNW FLOW ALOFT TO APPROACH THE COMMONWEALTH. SUMMER IS MCS
SEASON IN KENTUCKY, SO THIS TYPE OF SETUP MAKES CLIMATOLOGICAL
SENSE. HOWEVER, IT ALSO INTRODUCES COMPOUNDING UNCERTAINTY TO THE
FORECAST. THAT UPSTREAM ACTIVITY WILL PLAY A ROLE IN DETERMINING THE
AMOUNT OF FORECAST SKY COVER AND THUS THE AMOUNT OF DIURNAL
WARMING/INSTABILITY THAT GETS REALIZED IN OUR CWA. FURTHERMORE,
THESE FEATURES CAN LEAVE RESIDUAL/EFFECTIVE BOUNDARIES IN PLACE
THAT, IN TURN, LOCALLY BOLSTER CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. THUS, IT IS
CURRENTLY DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE THE MAGNITUDE OF EASTERN KENTUCKY'S
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AT THE CURRENT TEMPORAL RANGE, IT IS CRUCIAL TO LOOK TOWARDS
OVERARCHING MODEL TRENDS AND THE AVAILABLE MEDIUM-RANGE CONVECTIVE
GUIDANCE (BE IT ANALOG-, AI-, OR MACHINE LEARNING-BASED). IN RECENT
MODEL RUNS AND IN THE BLENDED BASELINE GUIDANCE, THERE HAS BEEN A
NOTICEABLE TREND TOWARDS THE GREATEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
COVERAGE COMING ON THURSDAY. SOME OF THE AFOREMENTIONED AI/ML
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE ON THE TABLE IN
THIS TIME FRAME, BUT THE MESOSCALE NATURE OF THE SETUP PRECLUDES THE
DRAWING OF A SPECIFIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK THIS FAR OUT. HOWEVER,
MULTIPLE RUNS OF THE EFI SOT GUIDANCE (WHICH CAN BE A USEFUL TOOL
FOR IDENTIFYING UNUSUAL EVENTS) RESOLVE A SIGNAL FOR STONGER-THAN-
NORMAL WIND GUSTS AT THE SAME TIME AS THESE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
THEREFORE, WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE LATE WEEK CONVECTIVE FORECAST
CLOSELY. INTERESTS WITH LATE-PERIOD OUTDOOR PLANS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
STAY TUNED TO FUTURE FORECAST UPDATES CLOSELY. IN THE MEANTIME
THOUGH, THEY ARE ENCOURAGED TO GET OUTSIDE AND ENJOY THE COOLER-THAN-
NORMAL EARLY WEEK TEMPERATURES AND SUNSHINE.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 720 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026
AS A DRYING COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA CHANCES FOR A STRAY
SHOWER AND MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER THROUGH 02Z. WINDS OF LESS THAN 10
KTS WILL TREND FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST THROUGH 04Z AND THEN
GRADUALLY WEAKEN TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE INTO THE DEEP NIGHT. AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATER TONIGHT, FOG IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT
VALLEY LOCATIONS BY 04Z AND MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. AS A RESULT, SOME, OR ALL, OF THE TAF SITES COULD ALSO
EXPERIENCE FOG LIFTING INTO THEM THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
VFR CONDITIONS THEN RETURN AREA-WIDE BY 14Z SATURDAY.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...MARCUS
AVIATION...CMC/GREIF
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