287
FXUS63 KJKL 131720
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
120 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PASSING HIGH PRESSURE USHERS IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR TODAY,
BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER AND WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWER CHANCES RETURN
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
- STORMS ON SUNDAY COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN, POTENTIALLY
LEADING TO LOCALIZED FLOODING, ALONG WITH STRONG TO LOCALLY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
- EXPECT COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK AS
BROAD TROUGHING DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN ALOFT.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POISED TO RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATER
PART OF NEXT WEEK. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO
THURSDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 954 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2026
FOG HAS DISSIPATED, WITH CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ALREADY UNDERWAY TO
THE SOUTH OF A DISSIPATING FRONT, MAINLY SOUTH OF THE KY HIGHWAY
80 CORRIDOR. OUTSIDE OF CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT WHERE BEST LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS ALONG THE TN BORDER, PLEASANT WEATHER WITH
PASSING HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 755 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2026
HOURLY GRIDS WERE FINE-TUNED FOR TRENDS WITH VALLEY FOG THAT IS
MOST PREVALENT NEAR OR NORTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY/KY 80 AND
IS DENSE IN SOME LOCATIONS. IN ADDITION, TEMPERATURES WERE TRENDED
BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS. THE FOG SHOULD LIFT AND DISSIPATE
OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING A RAIN FREE
DAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2026
EARLY THIS MORNING, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED IN ONTARIO
WITH A BROAD TROUGH INTO SECTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ACROSS
THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. MORE LESS
ZONAL/WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT EXTENDED FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ACROSS
SECTIONS OF THE PLAINS TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS BETWEEN THIS BROAD TROUGH TO THE NORTH AND UPPER
RIDGING WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MEXICO ACROSS TX TO
THE GULF. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE WERE MOVING AROUND RIDGING EXTENDING
FROM THE PACIFIC INTO WESTERN CANADA WITH ONE NEAR THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ANOTHER FURTHER
UPSTREAM. LOCALLY, A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC INTO COMMONWEALTH TO THE MID MS VALLEY TO PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SAG ACROSS EASTERN KY
AND APPEARS TO BE LOCATED BETWEEN THE MTN PARKWAY AND THE HAL
ROGERS PARKWAY AT THIS POINT. NEAR AND IN ADVANCE OF IT, AREAS OF
LOW CLOUDS BETWEEN 3 AND 5KFT AGL LINGER. VALLEY FOG IS ALSO
EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS THE REGION, PARTICULARLY WHERE
THERE ARE NO LOW CLOUDS. THIS FOG APPEARS TO BE PRODUCING
SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AT THE KY MESONET SITES IN
JOHNSON, OWSLEY, AND POWELL COUNTIES WITH LESSER REDUCTIONS IN FOG
ON THE KYTC CAMERAS AT BEATTYVILLE AND PIKEVILLE.
TODAY AND TONIGHT, THE UPPER LOW IN CANADA SHOULD MEANDER TOWARD
THE SOUTHERN END OF JAMES BAY WHILE SOMEWHAT DIRTY UPPER RIDGING
REMAINS IN PLACE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE GULF. WEAKER
DISTURBANCES SHOULD MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS INTO THE OH VALLEY
WITH GUIDANCE VARYING WITH THE DETAILS OF A DISTURBANCE/MCS TYPE
FEATURE THAT MAY NEAR THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL NEAR THE
AREA IN ADVANCE OF AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE THAT WILL ROTATE FROM AN
EAST TO WEST ORIENTATION US/CANADIAN BORDER TO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES TO MORE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS WESTERN ONTARIO TO
WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO OZARKS VICINITY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. AT
THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE SAGGING FRONT
SHOULD BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AND INTO WV BY THIS EVENING BEFORE
WEAKENING AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE
REMNANT/WEAK BOUNDARY MAY RETURN NORTH TOWARD THE AREA THIS
EVENING TONIGHT, HOWEVER, A MORE NOTABLE BOUNDARY, A COLD FRONT
WILL ADVANCE INTO QUEBEC ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES TO MID MS VALLEY TO SOUTHERN PLAINS NEAR DAWN ON SUNDAY. THE
INITIAL SHORTWAVE/MCS OR PERHAPS A COUPLE OF THESE TYPE OF
FEATURES SHOULD PROGRESS ACROSS EASTERN KY AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO LOWER
OH VALLEY WITH THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSING ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH
AND INTO EASTERN KY THROUGH THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE AREA WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL
MIXING OUT OF FOG WITHIN 3 HOURS OR SO OF SUNRISE THIS MORNING AND
A DECREASE IN LOW CLOUDS IS PROBABLE AS WELL. HIGHS SHOULD AGAIN
BE ABOVE NORMAL BY AROUND 5 DEGREES. THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
SHORTWAVE/MCS AND PERHAPS ONE OR MORE AREAS OF ACTIVITY SHOULD
MOVE/DEVELOP ACROSS SECTIONS OF THE CENTRAL CONUS TODAY AND ENTER
THE LOWER OH VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING PER RECENT CAM
RUNS AND PERHAPS LATE TONIGHT OR SUNDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP NEAR OR ALONG THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. THE
DEGREE OF INSTABILITY ON SUNDAY WILL BE LARGELY DETERMINED BY LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER
THAT MAY MUTE INSTABILITY TO A LARGE EXTENT ON THIS SIDE OF THE
APPALACHIANS. 00Z HREF MEAN HAS SBCAPE PEAKING IN THE 500 TO 1000
J/KG RANGE WITH 20 TO 30KT OF BULK. THIS COMBINATION OF GENERALLY
MARGINAL LEVELS OF BOTH MAY SUPPORT SOME STORM ORGANIZATION. LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD PEAK IN THE 7 TO 9C/KM RANGE PER RECENT
RAP RUNS ON SUNDAY AND WITH MEAGER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FORECAST
THE MAIN CONCERNS WOULD BE ANY TRAINING OR AREAS THAT PICK UP
REPEATED ROUNDS OF CONVECTION AS WELL AS STRONG TO LOCALLY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL FROM WPC AND A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR
AREAS IN THE EAST, ESPECIALLY NEAR AND EAST OF THE US 23 CORRIDOR.
BOTH OF THESE HAVE BEEN HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO AND KEY MESSAGES.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1244 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2026
CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH IN THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FORECAST FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. CLUSTER ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT
THE GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN ABOVE-AVERAGE AGREEMENT THROUGH MID WEEK,
WITH A DOMINANT TROUGHING FEATURE IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES
WILL PROPAGATE AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THIS MEAN TROUGHING ALOFT IN
THIS TIME FRAME. AT FIRST, THEY WILL WORK TO REINFORCE THE ADVECTION
OF A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS
FAVORS SEASONABLY PLEASANT CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK IN EASTERN KENTUCKY, BUT THE APPROACH OF A DEEPER DISTURBANCE
AROUND MIDWEEK WILL ALLOW LOW LEVEL FLOW TO SHIFT BACK TO A MORE
SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY ORIENTATION. THE RESULTANT WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND MOISTURE RETURN WILL PRIME THE ATMOSPHERE FOR MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE LATTER STAGES OF THE PERIOD. THE DETAILS OF
THAT FORECAST LIE IN THE MESOSCALE, WHICH IS DIFFICULT TO DISCERN AT
THE CURRENT EXTENDED TEMPORAL RANGE. STILL, SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST GRIDS ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN PERSIST
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AS QUASI-ZONAL WNW FLOW SETS UP ALOFT.
THE PERIOD OPENS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY EVENING.
FRONTALLY-FORCED SHOWERS/STORMS AND THEIR ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER
WILL TAPER OFF BY MIDNIGHT, GIVING WAY TO FOG DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE
RECENTLY-WET GROUNDS, THIS FOG COULD EXTEND BEYOND THE TYPICAL
VALLEY LOCALES. FOR NOW, HAVE HANDLED THIS POTENTIAL IN THE GRIDS BY
CONFINING AREAL COVERAGE TO THE RIVER VALLEYS AND PLACING PATCHY FOG
COVERAGE ELSEWHERE. FOG LOOKS TO BURN OFF UNDER MOSTLY SKIES ON
MONDAY MORNING, BUT MONDAY'S TEMPERATURES MAY UNDER-PERFORM CURRENT
EXPECTATIONS. THE NBM MAXT GUIDANCE USED TO POPULATE THE LONG TERM
GRIDS IS WARMER THAN SOME OF TONIGHT'S DETERMINISTIC MODEL OUTPUT
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF A SECOND
SHORTWAVE, WHICH WILL STRUGGLE TO SPARK ANY MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES DUE TO THE DRIER NATURE OF THE CONTINENTAL AIRMASS BEHIND
THE PREVIOUS DAY'S FRONTAL PASSAGE. INSTEAD, THIS SECONDARY FEATURE
IS POISED TO PROVIDE CEMENT THE COOLER AIR, AND AFTERNOON HIGHS
SHOULD ACCORDINGLY STAY IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE 70S (AT LEAST). IF
THE COOLER NAM GUIDANCE IS CORRECT, SOME AREAS MAY ACTUALLY STRUGGLE
TO WARM ABOVE THE UPPER 60S ON MONDAY. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE MUCH
BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES FOR MID-JUNE, AND BELOW-NORMAL
THERMOMETER READINGS WILL STICK AROUND INTO TUESDAY. EXPECT
OVERNIGHT RIDGE-VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLITS, SUBSEQUENT RIVER VALLEY
FOG FORMATION, AND THEN ANOTHER AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S (MID TO UPPER 70S THIS TIME THOUGH).
AS HINTED AT EARLIER, A SHIFT IN SENSIBLE WEATHER CONDITIONS BEGINS
ON WEDNESDAY. SURFACE WINDS TURN SOUTHWESTERLY AND STRENGTHEN IN
THIS TIME FRAME, AND RECENT FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT GUSTS
COULD REACH SPEEDS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 MPH ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS YIELDS INCREASINGLY EFFECTIVE WAA AND MOISTURE RETURN, WHICH
THEN COMBINES WITH THE DYNAMIC SUPPORT FROM YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE ALOFT TO REINTRODUCE RAIN CHANCES TO THE FORECAST GRIDS.
THE SPECIFIC DETAILS REGARDING THE MODE AND INTENSITY OF THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY DEPEND ON THE EVOLUTION OF UPSTREAM
ACTIVITY. SEVERE WEATHER IS PLAUSIBLE IN THE MIDWEST/THE WABASH
RIVER VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY, AND THAT ACTIVITY COULD MOVE THROUGH THE
MEAN WNW FLOW ALOFT TO APPROACH THE COMMONWEALTH. SUMMER IS MCS
SEASON IN KENTUCKY, SO THIS TYPE OF SETUP MAKES CLIMATOLOGICAL
SENSE. HOWEVER, IT ALSO INTRODUCES COMPOUNDING UNCERTAINTY TO THE
FORECAST. THAT UPSTREAM ACTIVITY WILL PLAY A ROLE IN DETERMINING THE
AMOUNT OF FORECAST SKY COVER AND THUS THE AMOUNT OF DIURNAL
WARMING/INSTABILITY THAT GETS REALIZED IN OUR CWA. FURTHERMORE,
THESE FEATURES CAN LEAVE RESIDUAL/EFFECTIVE BOUNDARIES IN PLACE
THAT, IN TURN, LOCALLY BOLSTER CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. THUS, IT IS
CURRENTLY DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE THE MAGNITUDE OF EASTERN KENTUCKY'S
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AT THE CURRENT TEMPORAL RANGE, IT IS CRUCIAL TO LOOK TOWARDS
OVERARCHING MODEL TRENDS AND THE AVAILABLE MEDIUM-RANGE CONVECTIVE
GUIDANCE (BE IT ANALOG-, AI-, OR MACHINE LEARNING-BASED). IN RECENT
MODEL RUNS AND IN THE BLENDED BASELINE GUIDANCE, THERE HAS BEEN A
NOTICEABLE TREND TOWARDS THE GREATEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
COVERAGE COMING ON THURSDAY. SOME OF THE AFOREMENTIONED AI/ML
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE ON THE TABLE IN
THIS TIME FRAME, BUT THE MESOSCALE NATURE OF THE SETUP PRECLUDES THE
DRAWING OF A SPECIFIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK THIS FAR OUT. HOWEVER,
MULTIPLE RUNS OF THE EFI SOT GUIDANCE (WHICH CAN BE A USEFUL TOOL
FOR IDENTIFYING UNUSUAL EVENTS) RESOLVE A SIGNAL FOR STONGER-THAN-
NORMAL WIND GUSTS AT THE SAME TIME AS THESE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
THE NEW DAY 5 SWODY HAS A SLIGHT RISK FROM THE MID ATLANTIC INTO
SECTIONS OF THE OH VALLEY INCLUDING AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF THE
MTN PARKWAY. THE AREA FOOTPRINT OF THIS THREAT WILL BE FINE TUNED
AS DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR. THIS POTENTIAL HAS BEEN HIGHLIGHTED
IN THE HWO AND KEY MESSAGES. THEREFORE, WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR
THE LATE WEEK CONVECTIVE FORECAST CLOSELY. INTERESTS WITH LATE-
PERIOD OUTDOOR PLANS ARE ENCOURAGED TO STAY TUNED TO FUTURE
FORECAST UPDATES CLOSELY. IN THE MEANTIME THOUGH, THEY ARE
ENCOURAGED TO GET OUTSIDE AND ENJOY THE COOLER- THAN- NORMAL EARLY
WEEK TEMPERATURES AND SUNSHINE.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 120 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE INTO TONIGHT UNDER PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS. SOME VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY, BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO
IMPACT TAF SITES. OTHERWISE, CONVECTION LIKELY MOVES INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z SUNDAY, AND PREVAILING AND
PROB30 GROUPS HAVE BEEN ISSUED TO COVER THE ONSET OF THIS ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO MVFR
OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES ACROSS TAF
SITES.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH ~06Z, THEN WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD, BUT GENERALLY REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10 KTS SUSTAINED.
ISOLATED STRONGER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR AND WITHIN ANY SHOWERS
AND STORMS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...CMC
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...MARCUS
AVIATION...CMC
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