018
FXUS63 KJKL 131846
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
246 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSETTLED WEATHER AND WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWER CHANCES RETURN
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
- STORMS ON SUNDAY COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN, POTENTIALLY
LEADING TO LOCALIZED FLOODING, ALONG WITH STRONG TO LOCALLY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
- EXPECT COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK AS
BROAD TROUGHING DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN ALOFT.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POISED TO RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATER
PART OF NEXT WEEK. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2026
AN ACTIVE ZONAL PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD ON
THE SOUTH SIDE OF A LARGE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CANADA. WITHIN THIS
ZONAL FLOW, A DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA THIS EVENING, CROSSING
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING, WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
MOVING INTO THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY DAWN MONDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT.
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE ARRIVES THIS EVENING, AND
WILL SERVE TO PUSH A MORE HUMID AIR MASS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY, WITH UPPER 50S TO MID-60S DEW POINTS THIS
EVENING RISING TO THE UPPER 60S TO MID-70S BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING.
THIS RISING MOISTURE AND RESULTING INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT AN MCS,
OR REMNANTS OF AN MCS, THAT IS LIKELY TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AROUND
DAYBREAK SUNDAY FROM THE WEST, BRINGING INCREASED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. THEN, AS THE INITIAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EXITS
THE AREA, THE ARRIVAL OF A SECOND SHORTWAVE BY MID- TO LATE
AFTERNOON, ALONG WITH ANY APPRECIABLE SURFACE HEATING THAT CAN OCCUR
WITHIN THE HUMID AIR MASS, SHOULD SUPPORT A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA.
A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS EXISTS FOR SUNDAY, WITH THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM PRIMARILY ACROSS
COUNTIES BORDERING VA AND TN FROM I-75 EAST, WITH PROBABILITIES
INCREASING FURTHER AS ONE MOVES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. DAMAGING
WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY STORMS THAT CAN BECOME
ORGANIZED. A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ALSO EXISTS
AREAWIDE, WITH REPEAT ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLY CAUSING SOME
ISOLATED/LOCALIZED HIGH WATER ISSUES.
A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS MOVES INTO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER, ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
STEADY WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL REMAIN AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED FINAL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE AREA TO KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
FORECAST BANKED AGAINST THE HIGH TERRAIN ALONG/NEAR THE VIRGINIA
BORDER THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG IN SHELTERED
VALLEYS WOULD BE POSSIBLE WHERE THERE IS CLEARING, DESPITE WEAK COLD
ADVECTION.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1244 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2026
CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH IN THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FORECAST FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. CLUSTER ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT
THE GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN ABOVE-AVERAGE AGREEMENT THROUGH MID WEEK,
WITH A DOMINANT TROUGHING FEATURE IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES
WILL PROPAGATE AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THIS MEAN TROUGHING ALOFT IN
THIS TIME FRAME. AT FIRST, THEY WILL WORK TO REINFORCE THE ADVECTION
OF A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS
FAVORS SEASONABLY PLEASANT CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK IN EASTERN KENTUCKY, BUT THE APPROACH OF A DEEPER DISTURBANCE
AROUND MIDWEEK WILL ALLOW LOW LEVEL FLOW TO SHIFT BACK TO A MORE
SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY ORIENTATION. THE RESULTANT WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND MOISTURE RETURN WILL PRIME THE ATMOSPHERE FOR MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE LATTER STAGES OF THE PERIOD. THE DETAILS OF
THAT FORECAST LIE IN THE MESOSCALE, WHICH IS DIFFICULT TO DISCERN AT
THE CURRENT EXTENDED TEMPORAL RANGE. STILL, SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST GRIDS ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN PERSIST
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AS QUASI-ZONAL WNW FLOW SETS UP ALOFT.
THE PERIOD OPENS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY EVENING.
FRONTALLY-FORCED SHOWERS/STORMS AND THEIR ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER
WILL TAPER OFF BY MIDNIGHT, GIVING WAY TO FOG DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE
RECENTLY-WET GROUNDS, THIS FOG COULD EXTEND BEYOND THE TYPICAL
VALLEY LOCALES. FOR NOW, HAVE HANDLED THIS POTENTIAL IN THE GRIDS BY
CONFINING AREAL COVERAGE TO THE RIVER VALLEYS AND PLACING PATCHY FOG
COVERAGE ELSEWHERE. FOG LOOKS TO BURN OFF UNDER MOSTLY SKIES ON
MONDAY MORNING, BUT MONDAY'S TEMPERATURES MAY UNDER-PERFORM CURRENT
EXPECTATIONS. THE NBM MAXT GUIDANCE USED TO POPULATE THE LONG TERM
GRIDS IS WARMER THAN SOME OF TONIGHT'S DETERMINISTIC MODEL OUTPUT
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF A SECOND
SHORTWAVE, WHICH WILL STRUGGLE TO SPARK ANY MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES DUE TO THE DRIER NATURE OF THE CONTINENTAL AIRMASS BEHIND
THE PREVIOUS DAY'S FRONTAL PASSAGE. INSTEAD, THIS SECONDARY FEATURE
IS POISED TO PROVIDE CEMENT THE COOLER AIR, AND AFTERNOON HIGHS
SHOULD ACCORDINGLY STAY IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE 70S (AT LEAST). IF
THE COOLER NAM GUIDANCE IS CORRECT, SOME AREAS MAY ACTUALLY STRUGGLE
TO WARM ABOVE THE UPPER 60S ON MONDAY. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE MUCH
BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES FOR MID-JUNE, AND BELOW-NORMAL
THERMOMETER READINGS WILL STICK AROUND INTO TUESDAY. EXPECT
OVERNIGHT RIDGE-VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLITS, SUBSEQUENT RIVER VALLEY
FOG FORMATION, AND THEN ANOTHER AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S (MID TO UPPER 70S THIS TIME THOUGH).
AS HINTED AT EARLIER, A SHIFT IN SENSIBLE WEATHER CONDITIONS BEGINS
ON WEDNESDAY. SURFACE WINDS TURN SOUTHWESTERLY AND STRENGTHEN IN
THIS TIME FRAME, AND RECENT FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT GUSTS
COULD REACH SPEEDS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 MPH ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS YIELDS INCREASINGLY EFFECTIVE WAA AND MOISTURE RETURN, WHICH
THEN COMBINES WITH THE DYNAMIC SUPPORT FROM YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE ALOFT TO REINTRODUCE RAIN CHANCES TO THE FORECAST GRIDS.
THE SPECIFIC DETAILS REGARDING THE MODE AND INTENSITY OF THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY DEPEND ON THE EVOLUTION OF UPSTREAM
ACTIVITY. SEVERE WEATHER IS PLAUSIBLE IN THE MIDWEST/THE WABASH
RIVER VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY, AND THAT ACTIVITY COULD MOVE THROUGH THE
MEAN WNW FLOW ALOFT TO APPROACH THE COMMONWEALTH. SUMMER IS MCS
SEASON IN KENTUCKY, SO THIS TYPE OF SETUP MAKES CLIMATOLOGICAL
SENSE. HOWEVER, IT ALSO INTRODUCES COMPOUNDING UNCERTAINTY TO THE
FORECAST. THAT UPSTREAM ACTIVITY WILL PLAY A ROLE IN DETERMINING THE
AMOUNT OF FORECAST SKY COVER AND THUS THE AMOUNT OF DIURNAL
WARMING/INSTABILITY THAT GETS REALIZED IN OUR CWA. FURTHERMORE,
THESE FEATURES CAN LEAVE RESIDUAL/EFFECTIVE BOUNDARIES IN PLACE
THAT, IN TURN, LOCALLY BOLSTER CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. THUS, IT IS
CURRENTLY DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE THE MAGNITUDE OF EASTERN KENTUCKY'S
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AT THE CURRENT TEMPORAL RANGE, IT IS CRUCIAL TO LOOK TOWARDS
OVERARCHING MODEL TRENDS AND THE AVAILABLE MEDIUM-RANGE CONVECTIVE
GUIDANCE (BE IT ANALOG-, AI-, OR MACHINE LEARNING-BASED). IN RECENT
MODEL RUNS AND IN THE BLENDED BASELINE GUIDANCE, THERE HAS BEEN A
NOTICEABLE TREND TOWARDS THE GREATEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
COVERAGE COMING ON THURSDAY. SOME OF THE AFOREMENTIONED AI/ML
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE ON THE TABLE IN
THIS TIME FRAME, BUT THE MESOSCALE NATURE OF THE SETUP PRECLUDES THE
DRAWING OF A SPECIFIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK THIS FAR OUT. HOWEVER,
MULTIPLE RUNS OF THE EFI SOT GUIDANCE (WHICH CAN BE A USEFUL TOOL
FOR IDENTIFYING UNUSUAL EVENTS) RESOLVE A SIGNAL FOR STONGER-THAN-
NORMAL WIND GUSTS AT THE SAME TIME AS THESE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
THE NEW DAY 5 SWODY HAS A SLIGHT RISK FROM THE MID ATLANTIC INTO
SECTIONS OF THE OH VALLEY INCLUDING AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF THE
MTN PARKWAY. THE AREA FOOTPRINT OF THIS THREAT WILL BE FINE TUNED
AS DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR. THIS POTENTIAL HAS BEEN HIGHLIGHTED
IN THE HWO AND KEY MESSAGES. THEREFORE, WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR
THE LATE WEEK CONVECTIVE FORECAST CLOSELY. INTERESTS WITH LATE-
PERIOD OUTDOOR PLANS ARE ENCOURAGED TO STAY TUNED TO FUTURE
FORECAST UPDATES CLOSELY. IN THE MEANTIME THOUGH, THEY ARE
ENCOURAGED TO GET OUTSIDE AND ENJOY THE COOLER- THAN- NORMAL EARLY
WEEK TEMPERATURES AND SUNSHINE.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 120 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE INTO TONIGHT UNDER PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS. SOME VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY, BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO
IMPACT TAF SITES. OTHERWISE, CONVECTION LIKELY MOVES INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z SUNDAY, AND PREVAILING AND
PROB30 GROUPS HAVE BEEN ISSUED TO COVER THE ONSET OF THIS ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO MVFR
OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES ACROSS TAF
SITES.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH ~06Z, THEN WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD, BUT GENERALLY REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10 KTS SUSTAINED.
ISOLATED STRONGER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR AND WITHIN ANY SHOWERS
AND STORMS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...MARCUS
AVIATION...CMC
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