089
FXUS63 KJKL 140616
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
216 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSETTLED WEATHER AND WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWER IS EXPECTED TODAY.
- THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN, POTENTIALLY LEADING TO ISOLATED FLOODING, ALONG
WITH STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
- EXPECT COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK AS
BROAD TROUGHING DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN ALOFT.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POISED TO RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATER
PART OF THE NEW WEEK. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1150 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2026
HIGH CLOUDS HAVE CONTINUED TO THICKEN A LITTLE FASTER THAN WAS
FORECAST, AND MORE ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE. THIS MAY KEEP VALLEYS A
BIT MILDER AS WELL OVERNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY IN THE LAST HOUR OR TWO. THIS WOULD BE THE
START OF WHAT MODELS SUGGEST WILL BE AN EXPANDING AREA MOVING INTO
OUR WESTERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH, THE SHOWERS HAVEN'T
DEVELOPED TO THE EXTENT THAT GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST AT THIS
POINT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 843 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2026
EARLY EVENING OBS HAVE BEEN BLENDED INTO THE FORECAST, RESULTING
IN A FASTER DROP IN TEMPERATURES AND FASTER INCREASE IN HIGH
CLOUDS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2026
AN ACTIVE ZONAL PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD ON
THE SOUTH SIDE OF A LARGE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CANADA. WITHIN THIS
ZONAL FLOW, A DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA THIS EVENING, CROSSING
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING, WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
MOVING INTO THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY DAWN MONDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT.
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE ARRIVES THIS EVENING, AND
WILL SERVE TO PUSH A MORE HUMID AIR MASS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY, WITH UPPER 50S TO MID-60S DEW POINTS THIS
EVENING RISING TO THE UPPER 60S TO MID-70S BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING.
THIS RISING MOISTURE AND RESULTING INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT AN MCS,
OR REMNANTS OF AN MCS, THAT IS LIKELY TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AROUND
DAYBREAK SUNDAY FROM THE WEST, BRINGING INCREASED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. THEN, AS THE INITIAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EXITS
THE AREA, THE ARRIVAL OF A SECOND SHORTWAVE BY MID- TO LATE
AFTERNOON, ALONG WITH ANY APPRECIABLE SURFACE HEATING THAT CAN OCCUR
WITHIN THE HUMID AIR MASS, SHOULD SUPPORT A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA.
A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS EXISTS FOR SUNDAY, WITH THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM PRIMARILY ACROSS
COUNTIES BORDERING VA AND TN FROM I-75 EAST, WITH PROBABILITIES
INCREASING FURTHER AS ONE MOVES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. DAMAGING
WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY STORMS THAT CAN BECOME
ORGANIZED. A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ALSO EXISTS
AREAWIDE, WITH REPEAT ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLY CAUSING SOME
ISOLATED/LOCALIZED HIGH WATER ISSUES.
A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS MOVES INTO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER, ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
STEADY WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL REMAIN AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED FINAL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE AREA TO KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
FORECAST BANKED AGAINST THE HIGH TERRAIN ALONG/NEAR THE VIRGINIA
BORDER THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG IN SHELTERED
VALLEYS WOULD BE POSSIBLE WHERE THERE IS CLEARING, DESPITE WEAK COLD
ADVECTION.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2026
THERE IS REASONABLE AGREEMENT AMONG THE VARIOUS MODEL SUITES TO
BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THAT SAID, WE WILL SEE A DRIER AND
COOLER AIRMASS SETTLING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR MANY
LOCATIONS AND THIS IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR JKL. THIS
DRIER WEATHER WILL ROLL ON AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY MAKING FOR A
GOOD TIME FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.
AFTER A DRIER AND COOLER PATTERN, WE WILL SEE A WARM FRONT PROGRESS
NORTHWARD BY MIDWEEK. THIS WILL USHER IN A WARMER AND MOIST AIRMASS
ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THIS FRONT WILL THEN SAG
SOUTHWARD AS A COLD FRONT BY THURSDAY. THE PATTERN WILL LIKELY BE
MORE MESOSCALE DRIVEN AT TIMES, WITH CHARACTERISTICS OF A MCS
LIKE PATTERN. THIS MAKES PREDICTABILITY ON THE LOWER SIDE, BUT
EITHER WAY THE PATTERN WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE ACTIVE
ESPECIALLY BY THURSDAY GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES AT PLAY. SOME
OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DECENT CHANCE OF SEEING MUCAPE VALUES
CLIMB TO AROUND 2000- 3000 J/KG THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE EFFECTIVE
SHEAR WILL BE A BIT MORE LACK LUSTER AT AROUND 30-35 KNOTS, BUT
THIS COULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS. OVERALL THE MAIN THREAT AT THIS POINT WOULD BE DAMAGING
WINDS GIVEN THE HIGH FREEZING LEVELS NOTED WHILE SAMPLING AREA
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THAT SAID, THERE WOULD BE A RISK OF HEAVY
RAINFALL AS WELL, WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH FREEZING LEVELS
AND PWATS IN THE 1.5 TO 2 INCH RANGE (VALUES RUNNING AROUND 90TH
PERCENTILE OR HIGHER FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR). THERE IS ALSO A
NOTABLE STRENGTHENING 850 MB JET THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS SETUP BARES WATCHING THROUGH THE WEEK TO SEE HOW THE
GUIDANCE TRENDS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD TO END THE
WEEK AND THIS WOULD LEAD TO DRIER WEATHER BY LATE NEXT WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 215 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILED AREA WIDE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
AND SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST 12 HOURS OF
THE PERIOD. SOME VALLEY FOG IS ALSO ANTICIPATED THROUGH 13Z,
MAINLY SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES. SOME REDUCTIONS TO
MVFR OR LOWER WOULD OCCUR WITH THIS, BUT TAF SITES WILL NOT BE
AFFECT. THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVING FROM THE WEST PRIOR TO 12Z AND THEN
OCCURRING AT TIMES THROUGH AS LATE AS 00Z TO 03Z. CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING FOR ANY GIVEN LOCATION REMAINS LOW. THAT BEING THE CASE,
THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS BEING HANDLED WITH PROB30 GROUPS, WITH
PREVAILING GROUPS REMAINING VFR. MVFR AND LOCALIZED IFR CAN BE
EXPECTED WHEN/WHERE THE MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP OCCURS. THE
STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 TO 40KT.
OTHERWISE, NEAR AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, A FEW HOURS OF MVFR
REDUCTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AND ONCE THAT CLOUD COVER CLEARS, FOG
WILL BECOME A CONCERN BY 06Z AND AFTER.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...HAL/JP
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