384
FXUS63 KJKL 140630
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
230 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSETTLED WEATHER AND WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWER IS EXPECTED TODAY.
- THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN, POTENTIALLY LEADING TO ISOLATED FLOODING, ALONG
WITH STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
- EXPECT COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK AS
BROAD TROUGHING DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN ALOFT.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POISED TO RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATER
PART OF THE NEW WEEK. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1150 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2026
HIGH CLOUDS HAVE CONTINUED TO THICKEN A LITTLE FASTER THAN WAS
FORECAST, AND MORE ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE. THIS MAY KEEP VALLEYS A
BIT MILDER AS WELL OVERNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY IN THE LAST HOUR OR TWO. THIS WOULD BE THE
START OF WHAT MODELS SUGGEST WILL BE AN EXPANDING AREA MOVING INTO
OUR WESTERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH, THE SHOWERS HAVEN'T
DEVELOPED TO THE EXTENT THAT GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST AT THIS
POINT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 843 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2026
EARLY EVENING OBS HAVE BEEN BLENDED INTO THE FORECAST, RESULTING
IN A FASTER DROP IN TEMPERATURES AND FASTER INCREASE IN HIGH
CLOUDS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2026
AN ACTIVE ZONAL PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD ON
THE SOUTH SIDE OF A LARGE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CANADA. WITHIN THIS
ZONAL FLOW, A DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA THIS EVENING, CROSSING
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING, WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
MOVING INTO THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY DAWN MONDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT.
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE ARRIVES THIS EVENING, AND
WILL SERVE TO PUSH A MORE HUMID AIR MASS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY, WITH UPPER 50S TO MID-60S DEW POINTS THIS
EVENING RISING TO THE UPPER 60S TO MID-70S BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING.
THIS RISING MOISTURE AND RESULTING INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT AN MCS,
OR REMNANTS OF AN MCS, THAT IS LIKELY TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AROUND
DAYBREAK SUNDAY FROM THE WEST, BRINGING INCREASED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. THEN, AS THE INITIAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EXITS
THE AREA, THE ARRIVAL OF A SECOND SHORTWAVE BY MID- TO LATE
AFTERNOON, ALONG WITH ANY APPRECIABLE SURFACE HEATING THAT CAN OCCUR
WITHIN THE HUMID AIR MASS, SHOULD SUPPORT A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA.
A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS EXISTS FOR SUNDAY, WITH THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM PRIMARILY ACROSS
COUNTIES BORDERING VA AND TN FROM I-75 EAST, WITH PROBABILITIES
INCREASING FURTHER AS ONE MOVES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. DAMAGING
WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY STORMS THAT CAN BECOME
ORGANIZED. A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ALSO EXISTS
AREAWIDE, WITH REPEAT ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLY CAUSING SOME
ISOLATED/LOCALIZED HIGH WATER ISSUES.
A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS MOVES INTO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER, ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
STEADY WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL REMAIN AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED FINAL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE AREA TO KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
FORECAST BANKED AGAINST THE HIGH TERRAIN ALONG/NEAR THE VIRGINIA
BORDER THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG IN SHELTERED
VALLEYS WOULD BE POSSIBLE WHERE THERE IS CLEARING, DESPITE WEAK COLD
ADVECTION.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2026
BROAD UPPER-ATMOSPHERIC TROUGHING WILL DOMINATE THE SYNOPTIC WEATHER
PATTERN OVER MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA FOR THE LONG-TERM FORECAST
PERIOD. PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ARE PROGGED TO ROTATE
AROUND THIS FEATURE, AND THERE IS ABOVE-AVERAGE MODEL AGREEMENT
REGARDING THEIR POSITIONING, TIMING, AND EVOLUTION. AS A RESULT,
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD WILL BE MARKED
BY DRIER AND SEASONABLY PLEASANT CONDITIONS BEFORE A MID-WEEK
WARMING TREND EMERGES. THAT TRANSITION CULMINATES IN A RETURN TO
MORE ACTIVE WEATHER AS A SERIES OF WELL-DEFINED DISTURBANCES DIG
INTO THE MIDWEST AND THEN THE GREATER OHIO RIVER VALLEY DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. A SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE IN THE
WESTERN GULF WILL FUNNEL MODIFIED TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA IN THIS SAME TIME FRAME, AND MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS ARE
HINTING AT ROBUST LOWER AND UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK SUPPORT ACROSS
THE REGION FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THESE INGREDIENTS
COLLECTIVELY SUPPORT INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA
FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, AND THEY PAINT ENOUGH OF A
SYNOPTIC SIGNAL TO SUGGEST THAT SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD COME IN
THE FORM OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE EXACT DETAILS OF
THAT CONVECTIVE FORECAST WILL BE DETERMINED BY MESOSCALE NUANCES
THAT ARE DIFFICULT TO DISCERN AT THE CURRENT TEMPORAL RANGE.
HOWEVER, THIS SETUP HAS CERTAINLY CAUGHT OUR ATTENTION. OUR FORECAST
AREA WILL LIKELY BE POSITIONED WITHIN A REGIME OF QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
UNDERNEATH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AXIS THROUGH FRIDAY. THUS, THE
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCES ALOFT
WILL REMAIN IN OUR VICINITY FOR MULTIPLE DAYS IN A ROW AND CREATE
THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE DAYS OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN A
ROW. AS A RESULT, WE WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS DURING THIS STRETCH OF ACTIVE
WEATHER. THANKFULLY, THE MEAN TROUGHING AXIS SHOULD DIG DEEPER INTO
THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY NEXT WEEKEND AND THE BOUNDARIES SHOULD
ACCORDINGLY SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. SUCH A SHIFT
WOULD PLACE THE COMMONWEALTH IN A REGIME OF VERTICALLY-STACKED
WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW, AND THE RESULTANT DRY AIR ADVECTION
ALLOWS THE PERIOD TO END ON A QUIETER NOTE.
WHEN THE PERIOD OPENS ON MONDAY NIGHT, THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE
FIRMLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE COOLER AND DRIER EARLY-WEEK
AIRMASS. EXPECT OVERNIGHT RIDGE-VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLITS (RIDGETOPS
IN THE 50S AND VALLEYS IN THE UPPER 40S) AND SUBSEQUENT RIVER VALLEY
FOG FORMATION. AFTER ANY FOG BURNS OFF IN THE AM, TUESDAY LOOKS TO
BE ANOTHER DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE A FEW
TICKS HIGHER ON TUESDAY THAN THEY WERE ON MONDAY THOUGH, AS WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL KICKSTART THE AFOREMENTIONED
MIDWEEK WARMING TREND. WITH THE WARMING TREND COMES INCREASED
MOISTURE AND THUS INCREASED SENSIBLE WEATHER FORECAST UNCERTAINTY.
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO COMMIT TO SIGNIFICANT RIDGE-VALLEY
TEMPERATURE SPLITS ON TUESDAY NIGHT, AS THE FIRST SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO
DIG INTO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS INTRODUCES BREEZIER
WINDS, LOW-END RAIN SHOWER CHANCES, AND RELATIVELY GREATER AMOUNTS
OF SKY COVER TO THE FORECAST GRIDS THAN ON THE PREVIOUS NIGHT. THOSE
CONDITIONS WOULD NOT FAVOR LARGE SPLITS, BUT IF THE CLOUD COVER
ARRIVES LATE ENOUGH IN THE NIGHT, THE SHELTERED AND SHADED EASTERN
VALLEYS/HOLLOWS COULD STILL DECOUPLE.
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING COULD PLAY A ROLE IN
DETERMINING THE CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT LATER THAT AFTERNOON/EVENING.
ANY RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES LEFT BEHIND (SUCH AS AN OUTFLOW OR A
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY) COULD ACT AS A FOCAL POINT FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE
80S ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS COULD GUST UP
TO 20MPH DURING PEAK DIURNAL HEATING, AND THE SHIFTING FEATURES
ALOFT WILL YIELD INCREASINGLY EFFECTIVE WAA AND MOISTURE RETURN IN
THIS TIME FRAME. INSTEAD OF DYING OFF AFTER SUNSET, THOSE
WINDS/GUSTS ARE ACTUALLY FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. SUSTAINED SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 10 AND 15MPH (WITH
GUSTS POTENTIALLY APPROACHING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA) WILL CONTINUE
TO PUMP WARM, MOIST AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
AND LOWS MAY NOT DIP MUCH BELOW THE 70 DEGREE MARK. THIS IS ATYPICAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, AND EFI/SOT DATA CONTINUES TO SIGNAL THAT
UNUSUAL WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS TIME FRAME. ALL
OF THIS BOILS DOWN TO APPROACH OF A SECOND, SHARPER SHORTWAVE,
WHICH WILL BE MET WITH PLENTY OF UPPER LEVEL KINEMATIC SUPPORT TO
SPARK STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION UPSTREAM. GIVEN THE PATTERN AND
THE SEASON, THAT CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONGEAL INTO AN MCS AS IT
MOVES TOWARDS THE BLUEGRASS, WHERE IT WILL ENCOUNTER THE NOCTURNAL
INTENSIFICATION OF AN 850MB JET STREAK TO BETWEEN 50 AND 70
KNOTS. WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE ALOFT WILL HELP PROVIDE AMPLE SHEAR
TO SUSTAIN CONVECTION, AND THE UNUSUALLY WARM/WINDY CONDITIONS
FORECAST IN OUR CWA THAT NIGHT WILL WORK TO KEEP SUFFICIENT MUCAPE
IN PLACE. THUS, THERE WAS ENOUGH OF A SIGNAL IN THE MODELED
KINEMATIC AND THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FOR THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER TO OUTLINE A SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK ALONG THE I-64 CORRIDOR
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. MEDIUM-RANGE CONVECTIVE GUIDANCE
DERIVED FROM MACHINE LEARNING, ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE, AND
ANALOGOUS EVENT ANALYSIS DATA FURTHER SUPPORT THIS NOTION, WITH
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE MOST LIKELY HAZARD TYPE.
THE MESOSCALE EVOLUTION OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT'S ACTIVITY WILL PLAY A
CRUCIAL ROLE IN DETERMINING THE PARAMETER SPACING FOR ANY ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION IN OUR FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE SURFACE FRONT RESPONSIBLE FOR THAT ACTIVITY WILL
NOT HAVE MADE ITS WAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA BY THEN. THEY ALSO KEEP
30-40 KNOTS OF SOUTHWESTERLY 850MB FLOW OVER THE CWA THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF DIURNAL WARMING AND
DESTABILIZATION REALIZED TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY, ANOTHER ROUND
OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WITH HIGH FREEZING
LEVELS AND DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE, DAMAGING WINDS WOULD ONCE
AGAIN BE THE FAVORED HAZARD TYPE. REGARDLESS OF SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE RAINFALL
BEARS WATCHING. LOCALIZED HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES MAY EMERGE WHEREVER
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF ACTIVITY TRACK, AND THIS POTENTIAL CASCADES
INTO FRIDAY AS THE PREVIOUSLY-DISCUSSED QUASI-ZONAL FLOW REGIME
PERSISTS ALOFT. THE COMPOUNDING FORECAST UNCERTAINTY PRESENTED BY
THE MESOSCALE UNKNOWNS IN THIS SETUP PRECLUDES THE MENTION OF
SPECIFIC RAINFALL TOTALS, BUT THERE IS A 70-80% CHANCE FOR AT
LEAST 1 INCHES OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING IN THE LREF DATA. WHEN THIS THRESHOLD IS INCREASED TO 2
INCHES, THOSE PROBABILITIES HOVER AROUND THE 40-50% THRESHOLD. IT
IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THE LREF DOES NOT HAVE ANY EXPLICITLY
CONVECTION-ALLOWING MEMBERS IN ITS ENSEMBLE. THUS, IT WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE HOW HIGHER-RESOLUTION, CAM-INCLUSIVE ENSEMBLES RESOLVE
THESE PROBABILITIES AS THE EVENT APPROACHES. AT THE VERY LEAST,
THIS RAINFALL SHOULD PROVE BENEFICIAL TO THE AREA'S ONGOING
DROUGHT CONCERNS. WE RECOGNIZE THAT SOME OF RECENT RAIN CHANCES
HAVE NOT COME TO FRUITION AREA-WIDE, BUT THE PARENT FEATURES
RESPONSIBLE FOR THOSE CHANCES HAVE BEEN FAR MORE SUBTLE THAN WHAT
IS EMERGING IN THE WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY WINDOW. THE MAGNITUDE OF
THOSE FEATURES AND THE CUMULATIVE NATURE OF THIS ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
DEMAND ATTENTION, SO INTERESTS ARE ACCORDINGLY ENCOURAGED TO STAY
TUNED TO FUTURE FORECAST UPDATES.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 215 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILED AREA WIDE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
AND SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST 12 HOURS OF
THE PERIOD. SOME VALLEY FOG IS ALSO ANTICIPATED THROUGH 13Z,
MAINLY SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES. SOME REDUCTIONS TO
MVFR OR LOWER WOULD OCCUR WITH THIS, BUT TAF SITES WILL NOT BE
AFFECT. THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVING FROM THE WEST PRIOR TO 12Z AND THEN
OCCURRING AT TIMES THROUGH AS LATE AS 00Z TO 03Z. CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING FOR ANY GIVEN LOCATION REMAINS LOW. THAT BEING THE CASE,
THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS BEING HANDLED WITH PROB30 GROUPS, WITH
PREVAILING GROUPS REMAINING VFR. MVFR AND LOCALIZED IFR CAN BE
EXPECTED WHEN/WHERE THE MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP OCCURS. THE
STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 TO 40KT.
OTHERWISE, NEAR AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, A FEW HOURS OF MVFR
REDUCTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AND ONCE THAT CLOUD COVER CLEARS, FOG
WILL BECOME A CONCERN BY 06Z AND AFTER.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...MARCUS
AVIATION...HAL/JP
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