366
FXUS63 KJKL 141836
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
236 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TODAY WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED.
- THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN, POTENTIALLY LEADING TO ISOLATED FLOODING, ALONG
WITH STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
- COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN THE WORK
WEEK.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POISED TO RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATER
PART OF THE NEW WEEK. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY NIGHT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1020 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2026
MID-LATE MORNING UPDATE IS OUT WITH AN UPDATE TO T/TD/SKY GRIDS,
BUT OPTED TO LEAVE POPS AS-IS DESPITE THE LACK OF CONVECTION
PRESENTLY. UPPER-LEVEL VORT MAX IS CURRENTLY MOVING EAST THROUGH
THE LOWER TN VALLEY AND FAR SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY, AND WILL BEGIN
TO INFLUENCE AT LEAST SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY
AFTERNOON, BEFORE A COLD FRONT AND UPPER DISTURBANCE ARRIVAL AND
PASSAGE THIS EVENING FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 810 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2026
CONVECTION IS SHIFTING ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER IN THE DAY AND THERE
SHOULD BE AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION FOLLOWING SOME HEATING LATER
THIS MORNING TO MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
AS TO TO THE EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH MOST
RECENT HRRR RUNS HAVE A LINE OR BROKEN LINE WITH THE COLD FRONT
CROSSING EASTERN KY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE HIGHEST
CHANCES FOR STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS SHOULD OCCUR WITH THE
LINE/BROKEN LINE NEAR THE FRONT.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 450 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2026
EARLY THIS MORNING, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED OVER ONTARIO
TO THE SOUTHWEST OF JAMES BAY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH SOUTH ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES INTO SECTIONS OF THE MS AND OH VALLEY TO TN
VALLEY REGION. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES WERE MOVING THROUGH THIS
TROUGH ONE EXTENDING FROM SW OH TO CENTRAL KY TO WESTERN SECTIONS
OF TN. SOME CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING IN ADVANCE OF THIS FROM OH
SOUTH TO THE TN CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AS WELL AS OVER SECTIONS OF TN
INTO MS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WAS UPSTREAM OF THAT OVER THE MID MS
VALLEY TO OZARKS VICINITY WHILE THE MAIN 500 SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EXTENDED FROM THE UPPER LOW ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY TO SECTIONS OF THE PLAINS/NE AND SD BORDER VICINITY. AT THE
SURFACE, A FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDED FROM THE PARENT LOW IN QUEBEC TO
A SFC WAVE IN MI AND THEN SOUTHWEST TO THE MID MS VALLEY TO
SOUTHERN PLAINS. CURRENTLY ACROSS EASTERN KY, SFC DEWPOINTS
RANGED FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S NEAR THE VA BORDER AND NEARER
TO DEPARTING SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND
THEN RANGED THROUGH THE 6 0S ELSEWHERE. SOME LOW 70S DEWPOINTS
WERE IN PLACE ACROSS SECTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN KY. PW WAS
ANALYZED FROM 1 TO 1.1 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN KY TO 1.5 TO
1.9 INCHES FROM CENTRAL KY WEST INTO WESTERN KY. THESE VALUES WERE
BELOW THE 60TH PERCENTILE IN SE KY TO THE 80 TO 90TH PERCENTILE
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE.
TODAY AND TONIGHT, THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN CANADA SHOULD MEANDER IN
THE VICINITY OF JAMES BAY WHILE THE SHORTWAVE JUST UPSTREAM OF
EASTERN KY MOVES ACROSS EASTERN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS FOLLOWED
BY THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS EASTERN KY THIS AFTERNOON
FOLLOWED BY THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS THIS EVENING. BROAD
UPPER TROUGHING SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
SECTIONS OF THE CENTRAL CONUS/MS VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OH AND TN
VALLEYS BEHIND THAT SYSTEM. THE SFC FRONTAL ZONE MEANWHILE SHOULD
PRECEDE THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN KY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEN SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD INTO
THE OH VALLEY FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD
STALL ACROSS THE GULF STATES ON MONDAY AS THE SFC RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE OH VALLEY TO OK AREA.
PER THE 00Z HREF MEAN PW SHOULD RISE INTO THE 1.6 TO 1.9 INCH
RANGE BY LATE THIS MORNING AND REMAIN NEAR THOSE LEVELS UNTIL THE
FRONT PASSES ON WARM AND MOISTURE ADVECTION. THESE VALUES
GENERALLY PEAK IN THE 90TH TO 97TH PERCENTILE RANGE. UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS IN CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON, THOUGH UPSTREAM TRENDS AND SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE GRADIENT PRIOR TO DAWN AND FOR A COUPLE OF
HOURS AFTER DAWN. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE SUB SEVERE, BUT BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR. ANY LOCATIONS THAT PICK UP MULTIPLE STORMS
EARLY THIS MORNING COULD BE PRIMED FOR LATER ACTIVITY. SOME
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR BY MIDDAY THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON AS THE SECOND SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA. GUIDANCE
GENERALLY HAS A LINE OR BROKEN LINE/LINE SEGMENTS NEAR THE FRONT
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. MLCAPE DURING THAT TIMEFRAME
SHOULD BE QUITE MODEST 500 TO 1250 J/KG WITH LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
PEAKING AROUND 7 TO 8C/KM WITH RATHER MEAGER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. MUCAPE SHOULD GENERALLY PEAK AT 1000 TO 1500 J/KG WITH
BULK SHEAR OF AROUND 20 TO 35 KT WITH THE HIGHER SHEAR VALUES
ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST. THIS FORECAST COMBINATION
OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE LINE
SEGMENTS/BROKEN LINE MENTIONED ABOVE WITH STRONG TO LOCALLY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE. AS NOTED IF SOME LOCATIONS PICK UP
MULTIPLE STORMS DURING THE EARLY MORNING OR THE POSSIBLE MIDDAY TO
EARLY AFTERNOON ROUND OF CONVECTION AND THEN AGAIN WITH
CONVECTION NEAR THE LINE, LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED
INSTANCES OF HIGH WATER OR FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE. ALL OF THESE
THREATS ARE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO AND WILL ALSO BE COVERED ON
SOCIAL MEDIA AND THE WEB.
ONCE THE FRONT SAGS SOUTHEAST OF EASTERN KY PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT, A
SOME THINNING AND CLEARING OF CLOUD COVER SHOULD OCCUR AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN. FOLLOWING THE ANTICIPATED RAINFALL
TO DAY AND WINDS SLACKENING, FOG AT LEAST IN VALLEYS AND PERHAPS
MORE GENERALIZED/AREAWIDE IS POSSIBLE. FOR NOW WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE DEGREE OF CLEARING, DENSE FOG WAS LEFT OUT
OF THE FORECAST GRIDS, THOUGH IT CERTAINLY CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN
AREAS THAT PICK UP THE HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY. FOG SHOULD
LIFT AND DISSIPATE WITHIN ABOUT 3 HOURS OF SUNRISE ON MONDAY AND
WITH THE HIGH CONTINUING TO BUILD IN A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS
WILL BE OVER EASTERN KY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MAINLY RANGE THROUGH
THE 70S FOR HIGHS OR ROUGHLY END UP 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR MID JUNE.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2026
THERE REMAINS REASONABLE AGREEMENT AMONG THE VARIOUS MODEL SUITES TO
BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WE WILL SEE ONE MORE DAY OF DRIER
WEATHER ON TUESDAY BEFORE IT BECOMES MORE ACTIVE. AFTERNOON HIGHS
ARE STILL SLATED FOR THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80, AS HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHED EAST AHEAD OF NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE. A WARM FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PROGRESS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ON
WEDNESDAY USHERING IN A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS INTO EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THIS COULD LEAD TO A SMALLER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT AROUND THE 15-25
PERCENT RANGE.
A MORE ROBUST EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL AID IN
QUICKLY DEEPENING A SURFACE LOW TO FUTHER ACTIVATE THE NEARBY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE PATTERN WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE MESOSCALE
DRIVEN AT TIMES, WITH CHARACTERISTICS OF A MCS LIKE PATTERN
POTENTIALLY SETTING UP ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS MAKES
PREDICTABILITY ON THE LOWER SIDE, BUT EITHER WAY THE PATTERN WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE ACTIVE ESPECIALLY BY THURSDAY GIVEN THE
SYNOPTIC FEATURES AT PLAY. MOISTURE WILL BE ABUNDANT WITH MODEL
SUITES SHOWING AROUND A 60 TO 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF SEEING GREATER
THAN 1.75 PWAT VALUES BY THURSDAY. ANOTHER INTERESTING FEATURE
SHOWING UP IN THE DETERMINISTIC DATA HAS BEEN A SOUTHERN STREAM
DISTURBANCE ALONG AND NEAR THE GULF COAST AND HOW THAT WILL PLAY
INTO THE MOISTURE POTENTIAL. THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
DECENT CHANCE OF SEEING MUCAPE VALUES CLIMB TO AROUND 2000-3000
J/KG THURSDAY AFTERNOON, BUT HAVE SEEN THIS POOL OF INSTABILITY
BOUNCE AROUND THE CWA. THE EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE A BIT MORE LACK
LUSTER AT AROUND 25-35 KNOTS, BUT THIS COULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST
SOME ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION. OVERALL THE MAIN THREAT AT THIS
POINT WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN THE HIGH FREEZING LEVELS NOTED
WHILE SAMPLING AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THAT SAID, THERE WOULD BE
A RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL, WITH AMPLE SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
GOOD ACCESS TO DEEP GULF MOISTURE. ALSO NOTED, THE HIGH FREEZING
LEVELS AND AFOREMENTIONED PWATS IN THE 1.5 TO 2 INCH RANGE
(VALUES RUNNING AROUND 90TH PERCENTILE OR HIGHER FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR). THE ECMWF EFI ALSO NOTED A DECENT SIGNAL IN THE SOT
SUGGESTING SOME HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. THE NBM DETERMINISTIC DATA
WOULD SUGGEST WE SEE ON AVERAGE AROUND 2-2.5 INCHES OF RAIN FROM
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY. SOMETHING ELSE TO NOTE THURSDAY
IS THERE WILL BE A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND DECENT MIXING
IS NOTED IN THE FORECAST SOUNDING DATA. THIS COULD AID IN SOME
GUSTY WINDS EVEN OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE 25-35 MPH RANGE,
WITH ECMWF EFI EVEN MORE NOTABLE FOR STRONG WIND POTENTIAL AND
GEFS SHOWING SIMILAR SIGNALS IN THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLE PERTURBATIONS.
THIS SETUP BARES WATCHING THROUGH THE WEEK TO SEE HOW THE
GUIDANCE TRENDS.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD TO END THE WEEK AND THIS WOULD AID
IN BRINGING IN DRIER WEATHER BY LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER, THIS COULD BE SHORT LIVED, AS SOME GUIDANCE IS SHOWING
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM DROPPING IN BY SUNDAY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT THE GUIDANCE REALLY DIVERGES AT THIS LATER TIMESCALE.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON, LIKELY ENDING WITH A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS EVENING MOVING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE COLD
FRONT PASSAGE, WITH AN ABRUPT TRANSITION FROM WEST AND SOUTHWEST
WINDS TO NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS. THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD
PRODUCE BRIEF GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 TO 40 KTS. OTHERWISE, NEAR AND
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BETWEEN ~00Z AND 06Z, UP TO A FEW HOURS OF
MVFR REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE, WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING THEREAFTER. WITH WEAK COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE NIGHT,
ANY FOG AFTER 06Z SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE DEEPER SHELTERED
VALLEYS, AND ARE THUS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME TO IMPACT THE
TERMINALS.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...CMC
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...CMC
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