365
FXUS63 KJKL 151925
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
325 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN THE WORK
WEEK. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S TUESDAY
MORNING MAY APPROACH DAILY RECORDS, ESPECIALLY AT JACKSON.
- THERE IS AN INCREASED RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING
WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MID TO
LATE WEEK PERIOD (WED NIGHT-FRI).
- THE LOCATION, MAGNITUDE, STRENGTH, AND TIMING OF CONVECTION
FROM MID TO LATE WEEK WILL EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, SO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECASTS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2026
A DELIGHTFULLY COOL MID-JUNE AFTERNOON IS UNDERWAY ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S OVER THE
NORTHERN HILLTOPS TO THE MID 70S IN THE WARMER SOUTHERN VALLEYS. DEW
POINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S MAKE IT FEEL VERY COMFORTABLE
WHILE FAIR-WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS DRIFT PAST ON LIGHT NORTHWEST
FLOW. THE WEATHER MAP SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING EAST FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF LAST EVENING'S COLD FRONT. MEANWHILE,
BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT WITH EMBEDDED
SUBTLE SHORTWAVES, INCLUDING ONE PASSING THROUGH THE MID AND UPPER
OHIO VALLEY AND A SECOND DROPPING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
UPPER MIDWEST FROM CENTRAL CANADA.
AS THE FIRST SHORTWAVE PROPAGATES EASTWARD THROUGH THE TROUGH THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT, FLOW WILL TURN NEARLY QUASI-ZONAL OVER THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY AS SURFACE PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD AND CRESTS OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH LIGHT WINDS, DRY AIR, AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
(ONLY SOME WISPY CIRRUS), TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY THIS
EVENING, ESPECIALLY IN VALLEYS WITH A DECENT RIDGE-VALLEY SPLIT
LIKELY BY LATE IN THE NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. COOP MOS
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S THROUGH THE COLDER
SHELTERED HOLLOWS AND VALLEYS UP TO THE MID 50S ON THE RIDGES. THE
RECORD LOW FOR JUNE 16TH AT JKL COULD BE IN JEOPARDY AS IT IS ONLY
54 DEGREES, SET IN 1995 AND TIED IN 2002. THE RECORD LOW AT LOZ SHOULD
BE SAFER (49 DEGREES IN 1974) BUT IT COULD STILL BE CLOSE. RADIATION
FOG FORMATION IS ALSO LIKELY IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEY LOCALES.
LOOKING AHEAD TO TUESDAY, SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL RETURN FLOW WILL
DEVELOP BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH, ADVECTING A MILDER AND
SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID AIR MASS BACK ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. IT
WILL STILL BE QUITE PLEASANT THOUGH WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN
THE MIDDLE 70S NORTH TO LOWER 80S SOUTH UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
MEANWHILE, THE SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIVE TOWARD THE OHIO
VALLEY, THEN PIVOT AND DAMPEN AS IT JUST SKIMS OUR AREA TO THE
NORTH. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT THAT
WILL STALL OUT NEAR THE I-64 CORRIDOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS IT IS
ABANDONED BY ITS UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT. AS THIS FRONT APPROACHES, THERE
IS REASONABLY STRONG CONSENSUS IN THE CAMS THAT A DECAYING LINE OF
SHOWERS WITH THE SHORTWAVE FORCING ALOFT COULD REACH THE I-64
CORRIDOR BEFORE COMPLETELY FIZZLING. AT ANY RATE, ANY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WOULD BE LIGHT, LIKELY UNDER 0.1 INCH. IT WILL BE VARIABLY
CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 455 AM EDT MON JUN 14 2026
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE, A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH AND EAST OF EASTERN KY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY, USHERING IN A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS INTO EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE AND THE COLD FRONT NEARING THE
LOWER OH VALLEY THAT WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO STALL COULD LEAD TO
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STORM TUESDAY EVENING
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS NEAR AND NORTH OF THE
I-64 CORRIDOR . MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS GENERALLY THE CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE FOR WEDNESDAY IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH MOISTURE BEGINNING
TO INCREASE ACROSS EASTERN KY.
A MORE ROBUST EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL AID IN
QUICKLY DEEPENING A SURFACE LOW TO FUTHER ACTIVATE THE NEARBY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ACTIVITY COULD REACH MAINLY SECTIONS OF EASTERN
KY, PARTICULARLY THE NORTH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SPC SEVERE
OUTLOOK PROBABILTIES HAVE SHIFT A BIT NORTHWEST WITH POTENTIALLY
THE BOUNDARY A BIT FURTHER NORTH OR NORTHWEST. THE PATTERN WILL
LIKELY BECOME MORE MESOSCALE DRIVEN AT TIMES, WITH CHARACTERISTICS
OF A MCS LIKE PATTERN POTENTIALLY SETTING UP ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS MAKES PREDICTABILITY ON THE LOWER SIDE, BUT EITHER
WAY THE PATTERN WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE ACTIVE ESPECIALLY BY
THURSDAY GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES AT PLAY. MOISTURE WILL BE
ABUNDANT WITH MODEL SUITES SHOWING AROUND A 60 TO 80 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SEEING GREATER THAN 1.75 PWAT VALUES BY THURSDAY.
ANOTHER INTERESTING FEATURE SHOWING UP IN THE DETERMINISTIC DATA
HAS BEEN A SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE ALONG AND NEAR THE GULF
COAST AND HOW THAT WILL PLAY INTO THE MOISTURE POTENTIAL. THE
GUIDANCE, INCLUDING LREF MEANS, CONTINUES TO SUGGEST DECENT
CHANCE OF SEEING MUCAPE VALUES CLIMB TO 1250-2500 J/KG THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT THERE HAS BEEN A BIT OF A DOWNWARD TREND IN
INSTABILITY OVER THE PAST 12 TO 24 HOURS IN THE LREF. THE
EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS GENERALLY A BIT MORE LACK LUSTER AT AROUND
25-35 KNOTS, BUT THIS COULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME ORGANIZATION
OF CONVECTION. OVERALL THE MAIN THREAT AT THIS POINT WOULD BE
DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN THE HIGH FREEZING LEVELS NOTED WHILE SAMPLING
AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THAT SAID, THERE WOULD BE A RISK OF
HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL, WITH AMPLE SOUTHWEST FLOW AND GOOD ACCESS
TO DEEP GULF MOISTURE. ALSO NOTED, THE HIGH FREEZING LEVELS AND
AFOREMENTIONED PWATS IN THE 1.5 TO 2 INCH RANGE (VALUES RUNNING
AROUND 90TH PERCENTILE OR HIGHER FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR). THE ECMWF
EFI ALSO NOTED A DECENT SIGNAL IN THE SOT SUGGESTING SOME HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL. THE NBM QPF DETERMINISTIC VALUES HAVE TRENDED DOWN
SOMEWHAT TO THE 1.5-2.5 INCHES OF RAIN FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO FRIDAY. SOMETHING ELSE TO NOTE THURSDAY IS THERE WILL BE A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND DECENT MIXING IS NOTED IN THE
FORECAST SOUNDING DATA. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO POINT TOWARD THE
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS EVEN OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
25-35 MPH RANGE, WITH ECMWF EFI EVEN MORE NOTABLE FOR STRONG WIND
POTENTIAL COMPARED TO CLIMATOLOGY AND GEFS SHOWING SIMILAR SIGNALS
IN THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLE PERTURBATIONS. THIS SETUP BARES WATCHING
THROUGH THE WEEK TO SEE HOW THE GUIDANCE TRENDS.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD TO END THE WEEK AND THIS WOULD AID
IN BRINGING IN DRIER WEATHER BY LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER, THIS COULD BE SHORT LIVED, AS SOME GUIDANCE IS SHOWING
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM DROPPING IN BY SUNDAY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT THE GUIDANCE REALLY DIVERGES AT THIS LATER TIMESCALE.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2026
PRIOR TO TAF ISSUANCE, VFR WAS REPORTED ACROSS THE AREA UNDER A
EXTENSIVE CUMULUS FIELD. BASES WERE GENERALLY BETWEEN 3.5 TO 5KFT
AGL. THE CUMULUS FIELD SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH, EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING
THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME OF HEATING. WINDS WILL BE
NORTHWEST AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLING ACROSS THE AREA, WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THIS EVENING. A FEW VALLEY LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE
MVFR TO IFR REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY IN FOG AFTER 03Z TO 04Z,
THOUGH TAF LOCATIONS SHOULD NOT BE AFFECTED.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...DJ/JP
AVIATION...GEERTSON/JP
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