550
FXUS63 KJKL 152155
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
555 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN THE WORK
WEEK. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S TUESDAY
MORNING MAY APPROACH DAILY RECORDS, ESPECIALLY AT JACKSON.
- STORM CHANCES RETURN FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WORK WEEK
(WED NIGHT-FRI). SOME STORMS COULD APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS,
ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY.
- THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE SHOULD LOCATIONS SEE REPEATED ROUNDS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2026
A DELIGHTFULLY COOL MID-JUNE AFTERNOON IS UNDERWAY ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S OVER THE
NORTHERN HILLTOPS TO THE MID 70S IN THE WARMER SOUTHERN VALLEYS. DEW
POINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S MAKE IT FEEL VERY COMFORTABLE
WHILE FAIR-WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS DRIFT PAST ON LIGHT NORTHWEST
FLOW. THE WEATHER MAP SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING EAST FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF LAST EVENING'S COLD FRONT. MEANWHILE,
BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT WITH EMBEDDED
SUBTLE SHORTWAVES, INCLUDING ONE PASSING THROUGH THE MID AND UPPER
OHIO VALLEY AND A SECOND DROPPING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
UPPER MIDWEST FROM CENTRAL CANADA.
AS THE FIRST SHORTWAVE PROPAGATES EASTWARD THROUGH THE TROUGH THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT, FLOW WILL TURN NEARLY QUASI-ZONAL OVER THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY AS SURFACE PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD AND CRESTS OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH LIGHT WINDS, DRY AIR, AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
(ONLY SOME WISPY CIRRUS), TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY THIS
EVENING, ESPECIALLY IN VALLEYS WITH A DECENT RIDGE-VALLEY SPLIT
LIKELY BY LATE IN THE NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. COOP MOS
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S THROUGH THE COLDER
SHELTERED HOLLOWS AND VALLEYS UP TO THE MID 50S ON THE RIDGES. THE
RECORD LOW FOR JUNE 16TH AT JKL COULD BE IN JEOPARDY AS IT IS ONLY
54 DEGREES, SET IN 1995 AND TIED IN 2002. THE RECORD LOW AT LOZ SHOULD
BE SAFER (49 DEGREES IN 1974) BUT IT COULD STILL BE CLOSE. RADIATION
FOG FORMATION IS ALSO LIKELY IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEY LOCALES.
LOOKING AHEAD TO TUESDAY, SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL RETURN FLOW WILL
DEVELOP BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH, ADVECTING A MILDER AND
SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID AIR MASS BACK ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. IT
WILL STILL BE QUITE PLEASANT THOUGH WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN
THE MIDDLE 70S NORTH TO LOWER 80S SOUTH UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
MEANWHILE, THE SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIVE TOWARD THE OHIO
VALLEY, THEN PIVOT AND DAMPEN AS IT JUST SKIMS OUR AREA TO THE
NORTH. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT THAT
WILL STALL OUT NEAR THE I-64 CORRIDOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS IT IS
ABANDONED BY ITS UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT. AS THIS FRONT APPROACHES, THERE
IS REASONABLY STRONG CONSENSUS IN THE CAMS THAT A DECAYING LINE OF
SHOWERS WITH THE SHORTWAVE FORCING ALOFT COULD REACH THE I-64
CORRIDOR BEFORE COMPLETELY FIZZLING. AT ANY RATE, ANY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WOULD BE LIGHT, LIKELY UNDER 0.1 INCH. IT WILL BE VARIABLY
CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 555 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2026
AN AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE INITIALLY ACROSS THE
CONUS, AS A SEASONABLY DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW GYRES AROUND JUST
SOUTHWEST OF HUDSON BAY. THIS ALLOWS FOR FASTER CYCLONIC FLOW
FANNED SOUTH, SPREAD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS/ROCKIES TO THE OHIO
AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THIS AMPLIFIED FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO MORE
ZONAL-LIKE FLOW BY THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS
RIDGING TAKES HOLD MORE SO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS, WHILE
BROADER CYCLONIC FLOW STAYS MORE CONFINED ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
OF THE CONUS. UNCERTAINTY GROWS WITH TIME CONCERNING THE SMALLER
SCALE FEATURES, ESPECIALLY AFTER SATURDAY. OVERALL, THIS WILL
RESULT IN A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY
FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, AND THEN AGAIN FROM SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF TO
BELOW NORMAL READINGS, BEFORE REBOUNDING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY AND WARM, WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO
MAINLY THE MID 80S. WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 850 MB
JET FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (3-4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS AT 50-60 KTS)
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THE BEST 850 MB MOISTURE FLUX
CONVERGENCE WILL STAY NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER, WITH EASTERN
KENTUCKY REMAINING ON THE FRINGE OF THE MORE ROBUST CONVECTION. IT
WILL BE UNUSUALLY BREEZY OVERNIGHT FOR THE MIDDLE OF JUNE, WITH
MODEL GUIDANCE RANGING FROM 4-6 MB OF SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. SURFACE WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 15
MPH, WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
BLUEGRASS AND ACROSS OUR HIGHER TERRAIN IN FAR SOUTHEASTERN
KENTUCKY. BETWEEN AN INFLUX OF CLOUDS FROM THE NORTHWEST FROM
UPSTREAM CONVECTION AND THE BREEZIER SURFACE WINDS, TEMPERATURES
AT MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO
THIS WILL BE SOME OF OUR EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN MOST SHELTERED
VALLEYS, WHERE A FEW MAY TEMPORARILY DIP TO BELOW 70 DEGREES BY
MID TO LATE EVENING.
THE COLD FRONT MAKES A BETTER PUSH TOWARDS THE AREA ON THURSDAY,
WITH WIDESPREAD CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA. OVERALL,
MODEL GUIDANCE PROBABILITIES REGARDING COUPLED AMPLE INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR HAVE TRENDED LOWER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. EITHER
WAY, GIVEN THE UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW AND HIGHER FREEZING LEVELS,
STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY
STRONGER CELLS. QPF HAS ALSO TRENDED DOWN COMPARED TO EARLIER
MODEL RUNS; HOWEVER, THE FRONT WILL BE ALIGNED MORE PARALLEL WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING FOR
THE POTENTIAL OF TRAINING CELLS. PWATS, WHILE OVERALL LOWER
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, ARE STILL FORECAST TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR (75TH-95TH PERCENTILE), WITH MEAN LREF
VALUES AT 1.6-1.7 INCHES. AS SUCH, ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING IS
STILL POSSIBLE. AT THE SAME TIME, 1 HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
VALUES HAVE REBOUNDED TO 1.5-2.0 INCHES (WITH CONTINUED
IMPROVEMENT LEADING UP TO THIS) ACROSS THE AREA AND LOCAL
STREAMFLOWS REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
THE MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST INTO FRIDAY, AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS SOUTHEAST OF THE
AREA. COOLER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEKEND, BRINGING MAINLY DRY WEATHER. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, THE
BOUNDARY WILL RETURN TO THE NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT, WITH RAIN
CHANCES RETURNING ACROSS THE AREA, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
SPECIFICS AT THIS POINT. HIGHS WILL AVERAGE IN THE 80S ON
THURSDAY, BEFORE RETREATING TO THE 70S ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL THEN MODERATE BUILD BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2026
PRIOR TO TAF ISSUANCE, VFR WAS REPORTED ACROSS THE AREA UNDER A
EXTENSIVE CUMULUS FIELD. BASES WERE GENERALLY BETWEEN 3.5 TO 5KFT
AGL. THE CUMULUS FIELD SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH, EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING
THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME OF HEATING. WINDS WILL BE
NORTHWEST AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLING ACROSS THE AREA, WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THIS EVENING. A FEW VALLEY LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE
MVFR TO IFR REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY IN FOG AFTER 03Z TO 04Z,
THOUGH TAF LOCATIONS SHOULD NOT BE AFFECTED.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...JKL
AVIATION...GEERTSON/JP
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