122
FXUS63 KJKL 161918
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
318 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR HIGHS TODAY,
WHICH WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
- STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO
EARLY THURSDAY. GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE INCREASINGLY LIKELY
AND COULD BE STRONGER NEAR AND NORTH OF I-64.
- STORM CHANCES RETURN FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WORK WEEK
(WED NIGHT-FRI). SOME STORMS COULD APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS,
ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY.
- THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE SHOULD LOCATIONS SEE REPEATED ROUNDS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 217 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2026
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK, WITH THIS UPDATE UTILIZING THE
LATEST DATA FROM AROUND THE REGION TO IMPROVE ON THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH MAY LEAD TO AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA (MAINLY I-64 AND NORTH). PATCHY VALLEY FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP
TONIGHT BEFORE MIXING OUT EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1055 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2026
POPULATED THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM AROUND THE REGION
AND TWEAKING SOME TEMPERATURE CURVES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THE WIND AND WIND GUST FORECAST GRIDS WEDNESDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT WERE ADJUSTED UP USING A BLEND OF THE CONSSHORT AND THE
NBM.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 737 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2026
HOURLY GRIDS WERE FRESHENED UP BASED ON RECENT TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS.
NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO WEATHER GRIDS FOR FOG. WHERE BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS ARE PRESENT, VALLEY FOG REMAINS EVIDENT. THIS SHOULD
LIFT AND DISSIPATE THROUGH AROUND 9 AM EDT AND GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY TO SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING WARMER.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 535 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2026
EARLY THIS MORNING A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF CANADA INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL CONUS/MS VALLEY
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN CONUS. AN UPPER LOW/SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH AND ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LOW
IN CANADA CENTERED JUST WEST OF HUDSON BAY WAS TRACKING ACROSS
SECTIONS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO MID MS VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE,
DEPARTING SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS/WV WHILE A SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER MS
VALLEY SHORTWAVE WAS ALSO MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES/UPPER MS VALLEY AREA. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDED
SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE A WARM FRONT EXTENDED INTO
THE LOWER OH VALLEY NEAR THE CONFLUENCE OF THE MS AND OH RIVERS.
LOCALLY A FEW AREAS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WERE CROSSING SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF EASTERN KY WHILE THERE WERE AREAS OF LOW TO MID LEVEL
CLOUD COVER OVER OH, WV, KY, AND IN WITH THESE CURRENTLY MORE
FOCUSED OVER NORTHEASTERN KY AND NEAR AND WEST OF THE LOUISVILLE
VICINITY. PARTICULARLY WHERE THERE WERE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS,
VALLEY FOG HAD FORMED NEAR THE LARGER CREEKS, RIVERS, AND LAKES
WITH REDUCTIONS BELOW ONE MILE IN SOME CASES. TEMPERATURES RANGED
IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN VALLEYS TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S
ON THE COALFIELD RIDGES AND IN AREAS OF MORE OPEN TERRAIN.
TODAY AND TONIGHT, BROAD TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
SECTIONS OF THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN CONUS WITH THE UPPER
LOW/ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY
AND NEARING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BECOMES MORE OF AN OPEN
SHORTWAVE AS IT ROTATES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES PORTIONS OF THE OH
VALLEY TO THE ONTARIO AND THE MID ATLANTIC. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES
WILL ROTATE AROUND THE MEANDERING UPPER LOW WEST/SOUTHWEST OF
HUDSON AND JAMES BAY WITH THE FIRST OF THESE CROSSING THE
DAKOTAS/NORTHERN PLAINS AND NEARING THE UPPER MS VALLEY TOWARD
DAWN ON WEDNESDAY. AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE OR TWO WILL ALSO MOVE
TO NEAR THE US/CANADIAN BORDER IN THE ND TO MT VICINITY. AS THIS
OCCURS, THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND INTO ONTARIO WHILE
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT NEARS THE LOWER OH VALLEY. THE ASSOCIATED
WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE OH VALLEY TODAY WITH EASTERN KY IN THE
WARM SECTOR BY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
FOR WEDNESDAY, THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL NEAR THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES AND EXTEND INTO THE MID MS VALLEY AND NEAR THE LOWER OH
VALLEY WEDNESDAY EVENING. ANOTHER SFC LOW/SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FURTHER WEST ALONG THE FRONTAL/BAROCLINIC ZONE AND ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS NEXT SHORTWAVE SHOULD BECOME CENTERED FROM THE E SD/SW
MN/W IA/E NE AREA BY EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. AS THIS SFC LOW NEARS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND THE SHORTWAVE NEARS THE GREAT LAKES, THE
PORTION OF THE FRONTAL ZONE IN THE OH VALLEY SHOULD LIFT BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A BIT TODAY COMPARED TO MONDAY WITH
HIGHS EXPECTED TO FALL ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMALS FOR MID JUNE.
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THOUGH SOME
CONVECTION NEAR THE APPROACHING FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD NEAR AREAS
NEAR OR NORTHWEST OF I-64 TOWARD SUNSET/LATE EVENING. SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY NEARER TO THIS
BOUNDARY AND A COUPLE OF STRAY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES COULD OCCUR
SOUTH OF THE CURRENT AREA OF POPS WHICH ARE NEAR AND NORTHWEST OF
I-64 WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING EASTERN KY AS PER 06Z
HRRR. OTHERWISE, WITH WINDS REMAINING RATHER LIGHT AND MAINLY HIGH
AND AT TIMES MID LEVEL CLOUDS, VALLEY FOG SHOULD FORM OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA FURTHER AWAY FROM THE
FRONTAL ZONE THAT WILL SLOW DOWN/STALL NEAR THE OH RIVER. THE
RATHER STRONG SFC LOW APPROACHES WI/IL WITH EASTERN KY WELL INTO
THE WARM SECTOR ON WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES BACK TO A BIT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FOR HIGHS. MIXING
MAY ONLY LEAD TO A MODEST INCREASE IN SFC DEWPOINTS. PW ONLY
GRADUALLY INCREASES FROM CURRENT LEVELS NEAR THE 10TH PERCENTILE
TO ABOUT THE 50TH OR 60TH PERCENTILE, 1.1 TO 1.4 INCH RANGE, PER
THE 00Z HREF MEAN. OTHERWISE, EXTENSIVE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER SECTIONS OF THE MIDWEST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND AS THIS EVOLVES EAST AND SOUTHEAST COULD APPROACH
EASTERN KY EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WHEN MOISTURE INCREASING
SIGNIFICANTLY.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2026
THE LONG-TERM PERIOD OPENS THURSDAY MORNING WITH A COMPLICATED
WEATHER PATTERN UNFOLDING ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND
ADJACENT REGIONS. THE 16/12Z MODEL SUITE ANALYSIS SHOWS, WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE, A DEEP LATE-SEASON UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CANADA WITH A POTENT SHORTWAVE PIVOTING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. MEANWHILE, A TROPICAL LOW WILL BE SLUGGISHLY DRIFTING
ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. BETWEEN THESE FEATURES, THE COLD FRONT
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE DECAYING LATE WEDNESDAY AND EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING SQUALL LINE (THE BOUNDARY ITSELF TRAILING FROM AN ~990 MB
SURFACE LOW OVER LOWER ONTARIO) WILL LIKELY EXTEND ROUGHLY
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST, ROUGHLY ALONG THE MAIN STEM OF THE OHIO
RIVER.
THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW WILL DRIFT OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND
EVENTUALLY START TO WEAKEN AFTER REACHING ITS MAX DEPTH. NORTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY, AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG 250 HPA JET WITH TRANSIENT JET
STREAKS WILL PROVIDE UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE WHILE THE COLD FRONT
ITSELF SLOWS TO A CRAWL, ORIENTED NEARLY PARALLEL WITH DEEP
UNIDIRECTIONAL WSW-ENE-ORIENTED FLOW. THE FINAL WILD CARD REMAINS TO
WHAT DEGREE THE TROPICAL SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED COPIOUS MOISTURE
INTERACT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE BROAD CONSENSUS AMONG THE
MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE NEARLY STATIONARY COLD FRONT FOR A TIME ON THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY EVENING, PROBABLY SOUTH OF I-64, BUT THE DURATION AND
INTENSITY REMAIN QUITE UNCERTAIN. LONGER-RANGE CAMS SUCH AS THE
EXPERIMENTAL MPAS RRFS OFFER SOLUTIONS WHERE LOCALIZED 2 TO 4 INCH
RAINFALL TOTALS OCCUR WHILE OTHER SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A MERE TENTH OR
TWO WILL OCCUR. THE BLENDED QPF GUIDANCE FOR THE ENTIRE EVENT HAS
REMAINED RELATIVELY CONSERVATIVE ON THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE, RANGING
FROM 0.6 TO 1.4 INCHES AND REPRESENTING A REASONABLE BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE MIDDLE GROUND SOLUTION.
THE THREAT FOR FLOODING AS WELL AS SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS QUITE
CONDITIONAL UPON THE ABILITY OF THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE TO EXTEND
SUFFICIENTLY NORTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE ALSO COINCIDING
WITH BETTER DESTABILIZATION -- ALL DEPENDENT UPON AN OVERALL MORE
NORTHWARD PROPAGATION OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM/ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
AND SLOWER PROGRESS OF THE INCOMING COLD FRONT. THOUGH THERE ARE
MANY MOVING PARTS, THIS CONCERNING POTENTIAL COMBINATION OF A
STALLING FRONT WITH ADJACENT UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT IN TANDEM WITH A
SURGE OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WARRANTS KEEPING ALL EYES FOCUSED
ON THIS SYSTEM. HOPEFULLY, CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL IMPACTS WILL
INCREASE IN THE COMING 12 TO 24 HOURS AS WE MOVE INTO THE RANGE OF
THE FULL OPERATIONAL HREF CAM SUITE AND RECEIVE BETTER OVERALL
SAMPLING OF BOTH SYSTEMS. ON A POSITIVE NOTE, THE DRY D1 TO D3
DROUGHT CONDITIONS FOR NEARLY ALL LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-64, PLUS
MOST RIVERS AND STREAMS FLOWING AT THE 5TH TO 25TH PERCENTILE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR, AND HIGH FFGS (2.0 TO 3.0 INCHES IN 1 HOUR AND
2.5 TO 3.5 INCHES IN 3 HOURS) ALL SUGGEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WOULD
NEED TO BE TOWARD OR IN EXCESS OF THE HIGHER END OF MODELED QPF
GUIDANCE FOR ANY WIDESPREAD FLOODING IMPACTS TO OCCUR OUTSIDE OF
URBAN AREAS. URBAN FLOODING IS OF GREATER CONCERN IF SUBSTANTIAL
TRAINING OCCURS OVER LARGER COMMUNITIES WHERE SURFACES TEND TO BE
LARGELY IMPERVIOUS REGARDLESS OF DROUGHT OR STREAMFLOW STATUS.
AS THE TROPICAL REMNANTS PRESS EAST TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC
SEABOARD THURSDAY NIGHT, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
BROADER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND
PROVIDE A DECISIVE SOUTHEASTWARD SHOVE TO THE STALLED COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED RAINFALL. IN ITS WAKE, LREF MEAN 850 HPA TEMPERATURES DIP
INTO THE 12 TO 14C RANGE FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH DEW POINTS
SLIPPING BACK INTO THE 50S. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A PLEASANT
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE THEN DIVERGES HEADING INTO THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES
OUR REGION WITH A WARM FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT COLD FRONT. IN GENERAL,
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A RETURN OF MORE WARM, HUMID CONDITIONS
(AT LEAST BRIEFLY) AND ALSO FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAINFALL.
IN SENSIBLE TERMS, EXPECT STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS TO SUBSIDE ON
THURSDAY MORNING THOUGH REMAINING BREEZY THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH
GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH COMMONPLACE. IT WILL ALSO BE QUITE MUGGY WITH A
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY, THOUGH LIKELY
BECOMING MORE FOCUSED ON SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY WITH TIME. LOOK FOR
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR
AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS AND FLASH FLOODING THOUGH THE EXTENT
IS UNCERTAIN. COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOLLOW BY FRIDAY WITH MUCH
LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80F.
SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE PICK OF THE WEEKEND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN
RETURNS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH BRIEFLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID
WEATHER, POTENTIALLY FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO DRIER AND COOLER
CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 148 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2026
A FIELD OF CUMULUS CLOUDS CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF
LOCATIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE OHIO VALLEY NEAR 00Z.
THIS APPROACHING FRONT COULD LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS OR A STRAY STORM
BETWEEN 04Z AND 10Z OVERNIGHT, WHICH COULD AFFECT KIOB OR KSYM. BRIEF
REDUCTIONS TO MVFR WOULD BE POSSIBLE IF A LOCATION WERE TO BE
AFFECTED, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE A PROB30 AT THIS
POINT. ADDITIONALLY, PATCHY VALLEY FOG COULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
LEADING TO A REDUCTION INTO MVFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER THE FOG IS
NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE TAF SITES.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...GINNICK
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...GEERTSON
AVIATION...JP/GINNICK
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