801
FXUS63 KJKL 161949
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
349 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO
EARLY THURSDAY. GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE INCREASINGLY LIKELY
AND COULD BE STRONGER NEAR AND NORTH OF I-64.
- STORM CHANCES RETURN FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WORK WEEK
(WED NIGHT-FRI). SOME STORMS COULD APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS,
ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY.
- THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE SHOULD LOCATIONS SEE REPEATED ROUNDS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2026
AS OF 18Z SATELLITE SHOWS A CU-FEILD MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER
70S ACROSS THE AREA. 500-MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD TROUGH
ACROSS MUCH OF CONUS EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO NEW
ENGLAND. WITHIN THIS TROUGH ARE A FEW SHORTWAVES THE FIRST OF WHICH
IS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FEATURES A
SURFACE WARM FRONT THATS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO THE WARM FRONT, THE SYSTEMS
COLD FRONT WILL TRAIL TO THE WEST, MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT LEADING TO ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG
AND NORTH I-64. PATCHY VALLEY FOG MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT BEFORE
MIXING OUT EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TO
COOL INTO THE UPPER 50S IN LOW 60S.
WEDNESDAY, SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OHIO
VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES, NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
OCCURS AS A SECOND SHORTWAVE EJECTS OUT OF SOUTHERN ALBERTA TUESDAY
EVENING, ARRIVING IN THE UPPER MIDWEST WEDNESDAY MORNING. FOR
SENSIBLE WEATHER IN EASTERN KENTUCKY, CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S UNDER
SOUTHWEST WINDS. HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT, THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS THE AREA, AS A 850-MB 50-60KT LLJ
MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEMS COLD FRONT.
LOOKING AT VARIOUS SOUNDING DATA, MODELS, AND ENSEMBLE OUTPUT, THE
PROBABILITY OF STRONG TO GUSTY WINDS OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY ARE
INCREASING. UTILIZING THE 00Z RUN OF THE ENSEMBLE SITUATIONAL
AWARENESS TABLE, AND LOOKING AT THE ECMWF MEAN WIND SPEED AT 06Z
THURSDAY (WEDNESDAY OVERNIGHT HOURS), THE CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE
FOR THE 850-MB WINDS OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY ARE EXCEEDING
CLIMATOLOGICAL MAXIMAS AND ARE NOW 5-6 STANDARD DEVIATIONS AWAY FROM
NORMAL. WHEN ANALYZING MOMENTUM TRANSFER, A FAIRLY GOOD PROXY FOR
PEAK SURFACE WINDS, BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGESTED WINDS OF 35-45
KTS AT KSYM. WITH TREES CURRENTLY LEAFED OUT, THE POTENTIAL FOR IS
THERE FOR TREE DAMAGE TO OCCUR IF THESE PEAK WINDS WERE TO BE
REALIZED. TO PUT THESE POTENTIAL WINDS IN CONTEXT TO HOW ANOMALOUS
THEY ARE, IT HAS BEEN AT LEAST 21 YEARS SINCE THE LAST TIME A WIND
ADVISORY WAS ISSUED DURING THE SUMMERTIME MONTHS FOR EASTERN
KENTUCKY (READILY ACCESSIBLE DATA ONLY GOES BACK TO 2005).
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE FORECASTED WINDS BY BLENDING THE NBM
WITH THE CONSSHORT. WITH STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT,
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED, IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. THE RECORD
WARM LOW AT JACKSON IS 69 SET BACK IN 2020. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS
74 IN THAT AREA.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2026
THE LONG-TERM PERIOD OPENS THURSDAY MORNING WITH A COMPLICATED
WEATHER PATTERN UNFOLDING ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND
ADJACENT REGIONS. THE 16/12Z MODEL SUITE ANALYSIS SHOWS, WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE, A DEEP LATE-SEASON UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CANADA WITH A POTENT SHORTWAVE PIVOTING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. MEANWHILE, A TROPICAL LOW WILL BE SLUGGISHLY DRIFTING
ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. BETWEEN THESE FEATURES, THE COLD FRONT
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE DECAYING LATE WEDNESDAY AND EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING SQUALL LINE (THE BOUNDARY ITSELF TRAILING FROM AN ~990 MB
SURFACE LOW OVER LOWER ONTARIO) WILL LIKELY EXTEND ROUGHLY
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST, ROUGHLY ALONG THE MAIN STEM OF THE OHIO
RIVER.
THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW WILL DRIFT OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND
EVENTUALLY START TO WEAKEN AFTER REACHING ITS MAX DEPTH. NORTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY, AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG 250 HPA JET WITH TRANSIENT JET
STREAKS WILL PROVIDE UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE WHILE THE COLD FRONT
ITSELF SLOWS TO A CRAWL, ORIENTED NEARLY PARALLEL WITH DEEP
UNIDIRECTIONAL WSW-ENE-ORIENTED FLOW. THE FINAL WILD CARD REMAINS TO
WHAT DEGREE THE TROPICAL SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED COPIOUS MOISTURE
INTERACT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE BROAD CONSENSUS AMONG THE
MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE NEARLY STATIONARY COLD FRONT FOR A TIME ON THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY EVENING, PROBABLY SOUTH OF I-64, BUT THE DURATION AND
INTENSITY REMAIN QUITE UNCERTAIN. LONGER-RANGE CAMS SUCH AS THE
EXPERIMENTAL MPAS RRFS OFFER SOLUTIONS WHERE LOCALIZED 2 TO 4 INCH
RAINFALL TOTALS OCCUR WHILE OTHER SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A MERE TENTH OR
TWO WILL OCCUR. THE BLENDED QPF GUIDANCE FOR THE ENTIRE EVENT HAS
REMAINED RELATIVELY CONSERVATIVE ON THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE, RANGING
FROM 0.6 TO 1.4 INCHES AND REPRESENTING A REASONABLE BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE MIDDLE GROUND SOLUTION.
THE THREAT FOR FLOODING AS WELL AS SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS QUITE
CONDITIONAL UPON THE ABILITY OF THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE TO EXTEND
SUFFICIENTLY NORTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE ALSO COINCIDING
WITH BETTER DESTABILIZATION -- ALL DEPENDENT UPON AN OVERALL MORE
NORTHWARD PROPAGATION OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM/ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
AND SLOWER PROGRESS OF THE INCOMING COLD FRONT. THOUGH THERE ARE
MANY MOVING PARTS, THIS CONCERNING POTENTIAL COMBINATION OF A
STALLING FRONT WITH ADJACENT UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT IN TANDEM WITH A
SURGE OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WARRANTS KEEPING ALL EYES FOCUSED
ON THIS SYSTEM. HOPEFULLY, CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL IMPACTS WILL
INCREASE IN THE COMING 12 TO 24 HOURS AS WE MOVE INTO THE RANGE OF
THE FULL OPERATIONAL HREF CAM SUITE AND RECEIVE BETTER OVERALL
SAMPLING OF BOTH SYSTEMS. ON A POSITIVE NOTE, THE DRY D1 TO D3
DROUGHT CONDITIONS FOR NEARLY ALL LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-64, PLUS
MOST RIVERS AND STREAMS FLOWING AT THE 5TH TO 25TH PERCENTILE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR, AND HIGH FFGS (2.0 TO 3.0 INCHES IN 1 HOUR AND
2.5 TO 3.5 INCHES IN 3 HOURS) ALL SUGGEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WOULD
NEED TO BE TOWARD OR IN EXCESS OF THE HIGHER END OF MODELED QPF
GUIDANCE FOR ANY WIDESPREAD FLOODING IMPACTS TO OCCUR OUTSIDE OF
URBAN AREAS. URBAN FLOODING IS OF GREATER CONCERN IF SUBSTANTIAL
TRAINING OCCURS OVER LARGER COMMUNITIES WHERE SURFACES TEND TO BE
LARGELY IMPERVIOUS REGARDLESS OF DROUGHT OR STREAMFLOW STATUS.
AS THE TROPICAL REMNANTS PRESS EAST TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC
SEABOARD THURSDAY NIGHT, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
BROADER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND
PROVIDE A DECISIVE SOUTHEASTWARD SHOVE TO THE STALLED COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED RAINFALL. IN ITS WAKE, LREF MEAN 850 HPA TEMPERATURES DIP
INTO THE 12 TO 14C RANGE FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH DEW POINTS
SLIPPING BACK INTO THE 50S. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A PLEASANT
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE THEN DIVERGES HEADING INTO THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES
OUR REGION WITH A WARM FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT COLD FRONT. IN GENERAL,
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A RETURN OF MORE WARM, HUMID CONDITIONS
(AT LEAST BRIEFLY) AND ALSO FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAINFALL.
IN SENSIBLE TERMS, EXPECT STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS TO SUBSIDE ON
THURSDAY MORNING THOUGH REMAINING BREEZY THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH
GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH COMMONPLACE. IT WILL ALSO BE QUITE MUGGY WITH A
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY, THOUGH LIKELY
BECOMING MORE FOCUSED ON SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY WITH TIME. LOOK FOR
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR
AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS AND FLASH FLOODING THOUGH THE EXTENT
IS UNCERTAIN. COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOLLOW BY FRIDAY WITH MUCH
LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80F.
SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE PICK OF THE WEEKEND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN
RETURNS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH BRIEFLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID
WEATHER, POTENTIALLY FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO DRIER AND COOLER
CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 148 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2026
A FIELD OF CUMULUS CLOUDS CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF
LOCATIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE OHIO VALLEY NEAR 00Z.
THIS APPROACHING FRONT COULD LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS OR A STRAY STORM
BETWEEN 04Z AND 10Z OVERNIGHT, WHICH COULD AFFECT KIOB OR KSYM. BRIEF
REDUCTIONS TO MVFR WOULD BE POSSIBLE IF A LOCATION WERE TO BE
AFFECTED, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE A PROB30 AT THIS
POINT. ADDITIONALLY, PATCHY VALLEY FOG COULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
LEADING TO A REDUCTION INTO MVFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER THE FOG IS
NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE TAF SITES.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...GINNICK
LONG TERM...GEERTSON
AVIATION...JP/GINNICK
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