638
FXUS63 KJKL 170325 AAA
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1125 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO
EARLY THURSDAY. GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE INCREASINGLY LIKELY
AND COULD BE STRONGER NEAR AND NORTH OF I-64.
- STORM CHANCES RETURN FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WORK WEEK
(WED NIGHT-FRI). SOME STORMS COULD APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS,
ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY.
- THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE SHOULD LOCATIONS SEE REPEATED ROUNDS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1125 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2026
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH MAINLY JUST
THE INCLUSION OF THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS FOR THE T/TD/SKY GRIDS.
THESE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS
ALONG WITH A FRESHENING OF THE SAFS AND ZONES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 720 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2026
23Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS EASTERN KENTUCKY BETWEEN SYSTEMS AT THE
MOMENT WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST AND A MORE
STATIONARY ONE TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS HAS LEFT MUCH OF THE AREA
CLOUD FREE, THOUGH THERE IS A THICKER BATCH IN THE NORTHWEST TIER
STARTING TO SETTLE INTO THE JKL CWA ALONG WITH A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS GENERALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. EXPECT DRY WEATHER
TO WIN OUT FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH THIS FIRST BATCH OF SHOWERS
PRODUCING MAINLY JUST SOME SPRINKLES. CURRENTLY, TEMPERATURES ARE
RUNNING IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. MEANWHILE, AMID SOUTHWEST WINDS
OF 5 TO 10 MPH AND A FEW HIGHER GUSTS, DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY IN
THE COMFORTABLE LOW TO MID 50S. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST MAINLY
TO ADD IN THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS FOR THE T/TD/SKY GRIDS AND
TWEAK THE MINOR POPS OVERNIGHT PER THE MOST RECENT RADAR RETURNS
AND CAMS GUIDANCE. THESE ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD
AND WEB SERVERS ALONG WITH A FRESHENING OF THE SAFS AND ZONES.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2026
AS OF 18Z, SATELLITE SHOWS A CU-FIELD MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY RANGE FROM THE MID- TO
UPPER-70S ACROSS THE AREA. 500-MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD
TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF CONUS EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
INTO NEW ENGLAND. WITHIN THIS TROUGH, THERE ARE A FEW SHORTWAVES,
THE FIRST OF WHICH IS CURRENTLY OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. A WARM
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CORRESPONDING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.
IN ADDITION TO THAT WARM FRONT, THE SYSTEM FEATURES A COLD FRONT
TRAILING TO THE WEST. THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT, LEADING TO ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-64. PATCHY VALLEY FOG MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT BEFORE MIXING
OUT EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO COOL
INTO THE UPPER 50S IN LOW 60S OVERNIGHT.
WEDNESDAY, SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OHIO
VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES, MAINLY NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS OCCURS AS A SECOND SHORTWAVE EJECTS OUT OF SOUTHERN
ALBERTA TUESDAY EVENING, ARRIVING IN THE UPPER MIDWEST WEDNESDAY
MORNING. FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER IN EASTERN KENTUCKY, CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID
80S UNDER SOUTHWEST WINDS. HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT,
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND A 50-60KT 850-MB LLJ MOVES OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. LOOKING AT VARIOUS SOUNDING DATA, MODELS, AND
ENSEMBLE OUTPUT, THE PROBABILITY OF STRONG TO GUSTY WINDS ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IS INCREASING. UTILIZING THE 00Z RUN OF THE
ENSEMBLE SITUATIONAL AWARENESS TABLE, AND LOOKING AT THE ECMWF
MEAN WIND SPEED AT 06Z THURSDAY (WEDNESDAY OVERNIGHT HOURS), THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE FOR THE 850-MB WINDS OVER EASTERN
KENTUCKY ARE EXCEEDING CLIMATOLOGICAL MAXIMAS. THEY ARE NOW 5-6
STANDARD DEVIATIONS AWAY FROM NORMAL. WHEN ANALYZING MOMENTUM
TRANSFER, A FAIRLY GOOD PROXY FOR PEAK SURFACE WINDS, BOTH THE NAM
AND GFS SUGGESTED WINDS OF 35-45 KTS AT KSYM. WITH TREES
CURRENTLY LEAFED OUT, THE POTENTIAL FOR IS THERE FOR TREE DAMAGE
TO OCCUR IF THESE PEAK WINDS WERE TO BE REALIZED. TO PUT THESE
POTENTIAL WINDS IN CONTEXT TO HOW ANOMALOUS THEY ARE, IT HAS BEEN
AT LEAST 21 YEARS SINCE THE LAST TIME A WIND ADVISORY WAS ISSUED
DURING THE SUMMERTIME MONTHS FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY (READILY
ACCESSIBLE DATA ONLY GOES BACK TO 2005). ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO
THE FORECASTED WINDS BY BLENDING THE NBM WITH THE CONSSHORT. WITH
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED, IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. THE RECORD WARM LOW AT JACKSON IS
69 SET BACK IN 2020. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS 74 THERE.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2026
THE LONG-TERM PERIOD OPENS THURSDAY MORNING WITH A COMPLICATED
WEATHER PATTERN UNFOLDING ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND
ADJACENT REGIONS. THE 16/12Z MODEL SUITE ANALYSIS SHOWS, WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE, A DEEP LATE-SEASON UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CANADA WITH A POTENT SHORTWAVE PIVOTING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. MEANWHILE, A TROPICAL LOW WILL BE SLUGGISHLY DRIFTING
ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. BETWEEN THESE FEATURES, THE COLD FRONT
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE DECAYING LATE WEDNESDAY AND EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING SQUALL LINE (THE BOUNDARY ITSELF TRAILING FROM AN ~990 MB
SURFACE LOW OVER LOWER ONTARIO) WILL LIKELY EXTEND FROM NORTHEAST
TO SOUTHWEST, ROUGHLY ALONG THE MAIN STEM OF THE OHIO RIVER.
THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW WILL DRIFT OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND
EVENTUALLY START TO WEAKEN AFTER REACHING ITS MAX DEPTH. NORTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY, AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG 250 HPA JET WITH TRANSIENT JET
STREAKS WILL PROVIDE UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE WHILE THE COLD FRONT
ITSELF SLOWS TO A CRAWL, ORIENTED NEARLY PARALLEL WITH DEEP
UNIDIRECTIONAL WSW-ENE-ORIENTED FLOW. THE FINAL WILD CARD REMAINS TO
WHAT DEGREE THE TROPICAL SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED COPIOUS MOISTURE
INTERACT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE BROAD CONSENSUS AMONG THE
MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE NEARLY STATIONARY COLD FRONT FOR A TIME ON THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY EVENING, PROBABLY SOUTH OF I-64, BUT THE DURATION AND
INTENSITY REMAIN QUITE UNCERTAIN. LONGER-RANGE CAMS SUCH AS THE
EXPERIMENTAL MPAS RRFS OFFER SOLUTIONS WHERE LOCALIZED 2 TO 4 INCH
RAINFALL TOTALS OCCUR WHILE OTHER SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A MERE TENTH OR
TWO WILL OCCUR. THE BLENDED QPF GUIDANCE FOR THE ENTIRE EVENT HAS
REMAINED RELATIVELY CONSERVATIVE ON THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE, RANGING
FROM 0.6 TO 1.4 INCHES AND REPRESENTING A REASONABLE BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE MIDDLE GROUND SOLUTION.
THE THREAT FOR FLOODING AS WELL AS SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS QUITE
CONDITIONAL UPON THE ABILITY OF THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE TO EXTEND
SUFFICIENTLY NORTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE ALSO COINCIDING
WITH BETTER DESTABILIZATION -- ALL DEPENDENT UPON AN OVERALL MORE
NORTHWARD PROPAGATION OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM/ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
AND SLOWER PROGRESS OF THE INCOMING COLD FRONT. THOUGH THERE ARE
MANY MOVING PARTS, THIS CONCERNING POTENTIAL COMBINATION OF A
STALLING FRONT WITH ADJACENT UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT IN TANDEM WITH A
SURGE OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WARRANTS KEEPING ALL EYES FOCUSED
ON THIS SYSTEM. HOPEFULLY, CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL IMPACTS WILL
INCREASE IN THE COMING 12 TO 24 HOURS AS WE MOVE INTO THE RANGE OF
THE FULL OPERATIONAL HREF CAM SUITE AND RECEIVE BETTER OVERALL
SAMPLING OF BOTH SYSTEMS. ON A POSITIVE NOTE, THE DRY D1 TO D3
DROUGHT CONDITIONS FOR NEARLY ALL LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-64, PLUS
MOST RIVERS AND STREAMS FLOWING AT THE 5TH TO 25TH PERCENTILE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR, AND HIGH FFGS (2.0 TO 3.0 INCHES IN 1 HOUR AND
2.5 TO 3.5 INCHES IN 3 HOURS) ALL SUGGEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WOULD
NEED TO BE TOWARD OR IN EXCESS OF THE HIGHER END OF MODELED QPF
GUIDANCE FOR ANY WIDESPREAD FLOODING IMPACTS TO OCCUR OUTSIDE OF
URBAN AREAS. URBAN FLOODING IS OF GREATER CONCERN IF SUBSTANTIAL
TRAINING OCCURS OVER LARGER COMMUNITIES WHERE SURFACES TEND TO BE
LARGELY IMPERVIOUS REGARDLESS OF DROUGHT OR STREAMFLOW STATUS.
AS THE TROPICAL REMNANTS PRESS EAST TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC
SEABOARD THURSDAY NIGHT, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
BROADER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND
PROVIDE A DECISIVE SOUTHEASTWARD SHOVE TO THE STALLED COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED RAINFALL. IN ITS WAKE, LREF MEAN 850 HPA TEMPERATURES DIP
INTO THE 12 TO 14C RANGE FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH DEW POINTS
SLIPPING BACK INTO THE 50S. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A PLEASANT
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE THEN DIVERGES HEADING INTO THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES
OUR REGION WITH A WARM FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT COLD FRONT. IN GENERAL,
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A RETURN OF MORE WARM, HUMID CONDITIONS
(AT LEAST BRIEFLY) AND ALSO FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAINFALL.
IN SENSIBLE TERMS, EXPECT STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS TO SUBSIDE ON
THURSDAY MORNING THOUGH REMAINING BREEZY THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH
GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH COMMONPLACE. IT WILL ALSO BE QUITE MUGGY WITH A
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY, THOUGH LIKELY
BECOMING MORE FOCUSED ON SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY WITH TIME. LOOK FOR
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR
AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS AND FLASH FLOODING THOUGH THE EXTENT
IS UNCERTAIN. COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOLLOW BY FRIDAY WITH MUCH
LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80F.
SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE PICK OF THE WEEKEND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN
RETURNS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH BRIEFLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID
WEATHER, POTENTIALLY FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO DRIER AND COOLER
CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS KICK OFF THE 00Z TAF PERIOD THOUGH THERE ARE A FEW
WEAK SHOWERS THAT COULD THREATEN THE NORTHERN SITES FOR A TIME
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. LITTLE TO NO IMPACT TO ANY
TERMINALS IS EXPECTED FROM THE LIGHT PCPN. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT LEADING TO LOCAL VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS TO
MVFR, MAINLY JUST IN THE VALLEY, THOUGH, AND NOT EXPECTED TO
AFFECT ANY TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE
NIGHT BEFORE PICKING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 10 KTS WITH
OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS DURING THE DAY, WEDNESDAY.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GINNICK
LONG TERM...GEERTSON
AVIATION...GINNICK/GREIF
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