626
FXUS63 KJKL 171352
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
952 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- INCREASING WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE ARE EXPECTED BY LATE
THIS EVENING INTO EARLY THURSDAY. GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE
PROBABLE AND COULD BE STRONGER NEAR AND NORTH OF I-64.
- STORM CHANCES RETURN TONIGHT TO THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME STORMS
COULD APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS LATE TONIGHT NORTH OF THE MTN PKWY,
AND ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN KY ON THURSDAY.
- THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM STORMS LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE
SHOULD LOCATIONS RECEIVE REPEATED ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 950 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2026
UPDATED THE FORECAST USING THE MOST RECENT OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM
AROUND THE REGION TO RECALCULATE THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WIND GUSTS THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, BLENDING MORE TOWARDS THE HRRR AND
CONSSHORT AND AWAY FROM THE NBM. AN SPS WAS ALSO ISSUED FOR WINDY
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WHERE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 30-40 MPH, A FEW GUSTS TO 45 MPH IS
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY NEAR AND NORTH OF I-64.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 755 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2026
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND
TRENDS. LINGERING VALLEY FOG IN THE SOUTH SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER
THE NEXT HOUR. SOME PASSING CLOUDS BETWEEN 4.5 AND 6KFT AGL ARE
ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING AND FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS MAY ALSO
DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE FURTHER COMPARED TO TODAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 530 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2026
EARLY THIS MORNING, BROAD TROUGHING EXTENDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN CONUS WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM WESTERN ONTARIO INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY VICINITY AND ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS MOVING AROUND
THE UPPER LOW AND THROUGH THIS TROUGHING. AT THE SURFACE, LOW
PRESSURE WAS ORGANIZING IN PARTS OF THE PLAINS (EASTERN DAKOTAS
TO NE AREA) AHEAD OF THIS NEXT SHORTWAVE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDED
SOUTH FROM THIS LOW INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE A DOWNSTREAM
WARM FRONT EXTENDED TO THE MID MS VALLEY WITH A NEARLY STALLED
COLD FRONT NEAR THE OH RIVER THAT EXTENDS TO ANOTHER SFC LOW IN
THE LAKE HURON VICINITY. ALSO OF NOTE, TD WAS LOCATED OVER THE
GULF NEAR THE TX COAST. A COUPLE OF STRAY SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING
IN CENTRAL KY NEARER TO THE BOUNDARY IN THE OH VALLEY, WITH SOME
PASSING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME. OTHER THAN THAT
SOME VALLEY FOG WAS PRESENT SOUTH OF THE MTN PARKWAY THOUGH IT WAS
LESS EXTENSIVE THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF MORNINGS. TEMPERATURES
HAVE TRENDED WARMER IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH MID 50S IN THE DEEPER
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN VALLEYS TO MID 60S IN AREAS OF MORE OPEN
TERRAIN OR NORTHERN SECTIONS WITH MORE CLOUD COVER.
TODAY AND TONIGHT, THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE INTO
THE GREAT LAKES TO LOWER AND EVENTUALLY MIDDLE OH VALLEY THROUGH
TONIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME, THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SHOULD DEEPEN
AND TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN TO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE GREAT
LAKES TO ONTARIO. THE NEARLY STALLED SFC LOW NORTHWEST OF EASTERN
KY WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TODAY WITH THE REGION AGAIN IN
THE WARM SECTOR. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES AND SAG TOWARD THE OH RIVER/LOWER OH
VALLEY TONIGHT. THIS SFC LOW SHOULD CONTINUE NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC
THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
GRADUALLY DROPPING INTO EASTERN KY.
ANY LINGERING VALLEY FOG SHOULD LIFT AND DISSIPATE WITHIN A COUPLE
HOURS AFTER SUNSET TODAY. OTHERWISE, MOISTURE ONLY GRADUALLY
RECOVERING ACROSS EASTERN KY TODAY, WITH PW RISING FROM CURRENT
READINGS IN THE 25TH TO 35TH PERCENTILE RANGE (0.85 TO 1.05 INCH
RANGE) TO THE 30TH PERCENTILE SOUTHEAST TO 60TH PERCENTILE
NORTHWEST (0.9 TO 1.35 INCH RANGE) PER 00Z HREF MEAN. IN THE WARM
SECTOR, NOTHING MORE THAN SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS AND SOME
PASSING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR TODAY.
SOUTH OF THE LOW TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA IN SECTIONS OF
THE MIDWEST FROM MO TO IN FAIRLY EXTENSIVE STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTION SHOULD EVOLVE TODAY AS MOISTURE SURGES INTO THAT AREAS
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. INCREASING WINDS ALOFT, 850 MB WINDS
RISING TO 20 TO 30KT BY EVENING SHOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GUSTS
INTO THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE AND POSSIBLY LOCALLY STRONGER TOWARD
EVENING.
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING REACHING THE
50TH TO 60TH PERCENTILE SOUTHEAST TO 85 TO 93RD PERCENTILE (1.6
TO 1.8 INCH RANGE) PER 00Z HREF SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
THIS MOISTURE WILL BE TRANSPORTED ON A LLJ WITH 850 MB WINDS
INCREASING TO 45 TO 65KT THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. AT THE SAME TIME DEWPOINTS SHOULD REACH THE LOW
60S SOUTHEAST TO MID AND UPPER 60S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. THE
HIGHER MOMENTUM ALOFT WILL BE TRANSPORTED TO THE SURFACE TO SOME
DEGREE AND WIND GUSTS INTO THE 30 TO 45 MPH RANGE OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTION APPEAR PROBABLE. SOME MORE SHELTERED VALLEY LOCATIONS
MAY HAVE LESSER GUSTS BY LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT WHILE A
FEW STRONGER GUSTS IN MORE OPEN TERRAIN IN THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
CWA CANNOT BE RULED OUT. CONVECTIVE ALLOWING GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE
06Z HRRR BRINGS THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPSTREAM CONVECTION IN THE
FORM OF A GUSTY LINE OF STORMS INTO AREAS NORTH OF THE I-64
CORRIDOR DURING THE 06Z TO 10Z TIMEFRAME OR 2 TO 6 AM EDT
TIMEFRAME. THIS RUN HAS THE 2-5KM UH SWATHS ACROSS NORTHER
SECTIONS OF THE AREA WITH SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND SEVERE LIMITS OR
ABOVE THE ENVIRONMENTAL GUSTS. IF PORTIONS OF THIS LINE COULD
BECOME ALIGNED NEARLY NORMAL/ PERPENDICULAR (N TO S OR MORE
IDEALLY NW TO SE) WITH THE 0-3KM SHEAR FROM A WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY
SOME QLCS POTENTIAL WOULD EXIST. MLCAPE AND MUCAPE OF 1000 TO 1500
J/KG MAY BE PRESENT BEFORE THE CONVECTION ARRIVES WITH EFFECTIVE
SHEAR IN THE 40 TO 45KT RANGE PER 03Z RAP. SRH IN THE EFFECTIVE
LAYER, 0-1KM, AND 0-3KM LAYERS IS ALL ROUGHLY AT LEAST IN THE 250
TO 350 M2/S2 RANGE JUST PRIOR TO ARRIVAL OF CONVECTION NEAR AND
NORTH OF I-64. THIS IF ALIGNMENT COULD BECOME FAVORABLE A QLCS
TORNADO CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT ALTHOUGH CURRENT SPC DAY 1
OUTLOOK HAS THIS PROBABILITY AT LESS THAN 2 PERCENT. SFC TO 6KM
MEAN WINDS OF 45KT PLUS WOULD BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR A SEVERE
WIND GUST THREAT.
TOWARD DAWN AS THE LINE OR BROKEN LINE SLIDES FURTHER SOUTH AND
WILL BECOMING FURTHER SOUTH OF THE BEST FORCING AND AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT INTENSITY MAY WANE AS IT MOVES SOUTH OF THE I-64
CORRIDOR AND NEAR THE MTN PARKWAY CORRIDOR. THE BOUNDARY WILL
SLOWLY SAG TOWARD AND INTO EASTERN KY ON THURSDAY WITH THE BEST
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND HIGHEST PW GENERALLY FOCUSING SOUTH OF THE
I-64 CORRIDOR IF NOT SOUTH OF THE MTN PARKWAY. THE EXTENT OF
DEBRIS CLOUD COVER LEADS TO SOME UNCERTAINTY ON CLOUD COVER AND
THE DEGREE OF HEATING AND RESULTANT DESTABILIZATION/INSTABILITY.
NEVERTHELESS, MUCAPE MAY REACH THE 1250 TO AS HIGH AS 2500 J/KG
RANGE NEAR AND IN ADVANCE OF THE BOUNDARY WITH MLCAPE MORE IN THE
1000 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SOMEWHAT
MEAGER IN THE 5.5 TO 6.5 C/KM RANGE WITH LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ROUGHLY 7 TO 8C/KM. EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAY REACH 30KT SO SOME STORM
ORGANIZATION IS POSSIBLE THOUGH CONVECTION MAY STRUGGLE TO BECOME
BEST ALIGNED WITH THE SHEAR SOME CLUSTERS OR LINE SEGMENTS WITH
STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH RECENT
CAMS HAVING THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS SOUTH OF THE MTN PARKWAY.
AN EQUAL OR HIGHER THREAT MAY BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE FROM WEST/SOUTHWEST TO EAST/NORTHEAST WITH THE
FRONTAL BECOMING PARALLEL WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. PW WILL BE A
BIT ELEVATED AND SHOULD RISE TO THE 1.6 TO 1.9 INCH RANGE PER THE
00Z HREF OR INTO THE 90TH TO 97TH PERCENTILE. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE GULF STATES NEAR THE TRACK OF THE
REMNANTS OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM AND CONVECTION IN THIS AREA COULD
AFFECT THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO SOUTHEASTERN KY.
DESPITE THIS, SOME RECENT CAMS BUT NOT ALL HAVE SOME TRAINING IN
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA CUMBERLAND BASIN THU AFTERNOON
TO EVENING.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2026
THE THREAT FOR A STRONG STORM OF TWO WILL LINGER THROUGH AROUND
SUNSET IN THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA WITH TRAINING OF CONVECTION
AND LOCALLY HEAVY TOTALS PERHAPS MORE OF A CONCERN AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT GRADUALLY DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN KY. THIS
BOUNDARY SHOULD DROP SOUTH OF EASTERN KY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE
THREAT OF CONVECTION WANING TOWARD DAWN IF NOT BEFORE AS THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVE FROM THE LOWER TO MID OH VALLEY AND INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
BROAD TROUGHING LINGERS SOUTH FORM CANADA INTO PARTS OF THE GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEAST TO END THE WEEK WITH NOT MUCH CHANGE IN 500
MB HEIGHTS ACROSS EASTERN KY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD INTO
THE LOWER OH VALLEY FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS FRI INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
BEFORE THE HIGH SHIFTS ACROSS AND EVENTUALLY EAST OF EASTERN KY BY
LATE SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY, IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING FROM THE WESTERN CONUS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD BEGIN TO ORGANIZE
OVER PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS/CENTRAL PLAINS AND WITH THE SFC HIGH
DEPARTING THE FRONT THAT WILL HAVE STALLED SOUTH OF THE AREA
SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTH TOWARD THE OH VALLEY AS A WARM
FRONT TO END THE WEEKEND. AT THE SAME TIME, THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IS PROGGED TO TREK TOWARD OR INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND THE OH
VALLEY.
MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND DETAILS AND THE POTENTIAL INTENSITY
OF CONVECTION EXIST BY SUNDAY, BUT THE OVERALL THEME IS A RETURN
TO UNSETTLED WEATHER IS PROBABLE TO END THE WEEKEND. EITHER WAY,
THE THREAT FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER WOULD CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE SFC LOW MOVES FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS/PLAINS AND NEAR
OR SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
AND THEN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY. A
TRAILING COLD FRONT WOULD EVENTUALLY CROSS EASTERN KY REDUCING
CHANCES, BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING. NEAR AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT, CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WOULD PEAK. THE GFS
OPERATIONAL RUN IS GENERALLY FURTHER SOUTH AND FASTER WITH THIS
LOW TRACK TO END THE WEEKEND WITH A QUICKER ARRIVING COLD FRONT
WHILE THE ECMWF OPERATIONAL RUNS ARE SLOWER WITH THE TRACK OVER OR
NEARER TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH THE COLD FRONT CROSSING
THE AREA UP TO 18 TO 24 HOURS LATER. GUIDANCE GENERALLY IS IN
AGREEMENT FOR A MIN IN SHOWER CHANCES THAT ARE GENERALLY BELOW
CLIMATOLOGY TO END THE PERIOD. ALSO OF NOTE, MACHINE LEARNING/AI
CONVECTIVE GUIDANCE TO END THE WEEKEND EARLY NEXT WEEK VARIES WITH
THE EC BASED GUIDANCE HAVING SOME LOWER END PROBABILITIES FOR
SEVERE STORMS AND GEFS BASED GUIDANCE MORE SUPPRESSED TO THE
SOUTHEAST WITH PROBS.
AT THIS POINT, BLENDED MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TO NORMAL BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WHEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
TO BEGIN THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WOULD THEN TREND MILDER BEHIND
THE WARM FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP BACK SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE FRONT
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 758 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WERE REPORTED TO THE TAF SITES AT ISSUANCE TIME
PERIOD WITH A CLOUDS IN THE 4.5 TO 6KFT AGL RANGE MAINLY IN THE
NORTH. VALLEY FOG IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY IN SOME OF THE
SOUTH, BUT THE TAF SITES ARE NOT AFFECTED. THIS FOG SHOULD LIFT
AND DISSIPATE THROUGH AROUND 13Z. MEANWHILE, A COLD FRONT HAS
PRETTY MUCH STALLED OUT NEAR THE OH RIVER EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND
WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM
THE PLAINS TRACKS ACROSS SECTIONS OF THE MIDWEST AND ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES DURING THE TAF PERIOD
WITH STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN THE MIDWEST
THIS CONVECTION MAY EVOLVE INTO A LINE THAT MAY REACH AREAS NORTH
OF THE MTN PKWY INCLUDING KIOB AND KSYM BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. A
PROB30 GROUP WAS INCLUDED FOR THAT POTENTIAL AT BOTH LOCATIONS AT
THIS POINT. WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE, BEFORE
PICKING UP INTO THE 7 TO 14KT RANGE AFTER ABOUT 15Z WITH SOME
GUSTS INTO THE 20 TO 25KT RANGE. WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE
STRONGER AND GUSTIER THAN TYPICAL AT NIGHT LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH
WINDS AND GUSTS LIKELY INCREASING DURING THE LAST 12 HOURS OF THE
PERIOD AS WINDS ALOFT AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALSO
INCREASE. GUSTS DURING THAT TIME COULD REACH THE 20 TO 30KT RANGE
AT TIMES. THE INCREASING WINDS ALOFT COULD ALSO RESULT IN A LLWS
THREAT FOR SOME AREAS LATE.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...GINNICK
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JP
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