123
FXUS63 KJKL 051924
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
324 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT ARRIVES. A FEW STORMS COULD
PRODUCE ISOLATED STRONG WINDS AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
- THE HEAT WAVE BREAKS NEXT WEEK, WITH DAILY HIGHS RETURNING TO
NEAR-NORMAL LEVELS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ALONGSIDE DAILY
CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2026
THE AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY. THE CONVECTION TODAY HAS BEEN
SLOW TO DEVELOP AND COULD BE THE RESULT OF SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
NOTED IN THE PWAT VALUES FROM THE SPC MESOANALYSIS. OVERALL WE
HAVE SEEN ONLY SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE VIRGINIA BORDER AND HAVE CONTINUED TO PUSH POP TIMING
BACK. THE CAMS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING IN THIS MORE SUMMER LIKE
PATTERN, BUT DO STILL SHOW SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING LATER THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THIS DO KEEP POPS IN THE
30-40 PERCENT RANGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SPC DOES HAVE US IN THE
MARGINAL RISK STILL AND WHILE THE CHANCES SEEM ON THE LOWER SIDE
WE ARE SEEING DCAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS IN STRONGER STORMS. WPC
HAS US IN THE MARGINAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND AGAIN THIS SEEM
LOWER END CHANCE AS WELL, AND WOULD LIKELY BE A RESULT OF THE
SLOWER MOVING NATURE OF THE STORMS.
OVERALL THE CONVECTION WILL BE MOSTLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND EXPECT
THAT WE WILL SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION MOSTLY RELENT TO ISOLATED TO
LITTLE IF ANY ACTIVITY TONIGHT. THEN WE WILL BE LEFT WITH A MIX OF
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. THIS SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR AT LEAST A
FEW DEGREE SPLITS IN RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURES, WITH VALLEYS GETTING
INTO THE UPPER 60S. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE TYPICAL RIVER VALLEY FOG
DEVELOPMENT AND THIS COULD BE MORE PRONOUNCED IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE
RAINFALL.
MONDAY, THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE AREA. IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS WE SEE A CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPING
TO THE WEST AND WE GET STUCK IN BETWEEN. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE
EVEN SUGGESTS SLIGHT HEIGHT RISES AS A RESULT. HOWEVER, THERE IS
STILL SOME WEAK VORTICITY NOTED WITHIN THESE FEATURES WHICH WILL
STILL HAVE THE COMBINED POTENTIAL FOR AIDING IN THE TYPICAL
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. THE CAMS SHOW A SIMILAR LOOK OR MAYBE
A SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE LOOK FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION THAN
TODAY. OVERALL STILL LOOKS TO FAVOR THE TYPICAL TERRAIN LOCATIONS
NEAR THE TENNESSEE AND VIRGINIA BORDERS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL TOP
OUT INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MOST CASES, BUT THIS WILL ALSO
DEPEND ON CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. MONDAY NIGHT, THE OVERALL
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL LOWER AS AGAIN WE LOOSE DAYTIME HEATING.
ONCE AGAIN EXPECT VALLEYS TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S FOR LOWS AND
SOME MAINLY RIVER VALLEY FOG TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT
SEE RAINFALL ON MONDAY.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2026
THE MAIN CHANGE TO GRIDS FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST THIS MORNING WAS TO ADD IN SOME SLIGHT TERRAIN DETAILS
EACH NIGHT ON ACCOUNT OF THE DIURNALLY CLEARING SKIES THAT ARE
EXPECTED EACH NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. DID ALSO INCLUDE
SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG TOWARD DAWN IN THE EARLY MORNING GRIDS.
GENERAL TROUGHING ALOFT STILL LOOKS TO KEEP THINGS UNSETTLED
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK WITH SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS STILL ON THE WET SIDE OF CLIMATOLOGY.
THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
THE LONG-TERM PERIOD OPENS MONDAY WITH THE PRIOR WEEK'S HEAT WAVE
JUST A MEMORY. THE 04/12Z MODEL SUITE ANALYSIS BEGINNING AT 12Z
MONDAY SHOWS A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH
A POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE MID
AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHILE A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS NORTHWARD
TO OVER NORTHERN GREENLAND. MEANWHILE, AN ~593 DAM HIGH WILL
RESIDE OVER THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY BENEATH A TROUGH OVER
CENTRAL CANADA. AT THE LOWER LEVELS, THE PATTERN IS SUBTLE. A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LIKELY TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHERN
INDIANA WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO THE OZARKS.
WORKING THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK, GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT
SHOWING THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PROPAGATING EASTWARD WITH ITS AXIS
CROSSING THE CWA ON TUESDAY, CAUSING THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT TO DROP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE NOTABLE EXCEPTION IS
THE ECMWF DETERMINISTIC HOLDING BACK A WEAK CLOSED LOW OVER THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHICH WOULD INHIBIT THE COLD FRONT'S
SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION. DIURNALLY MODULATED DEEP CONVECTION IS
PROBABLE ON BOTH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
NEARING AND DIPPING INTO THE AREA. GREATER UNCERTAINTY ON OVERALL
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE COMES ON WEDNESDAY AND DEPENDS ON WHETHER THE
FRONT EFFECTIVELY DIPS SOUTH OF THE COMMONWEALTH OR GETS HUNG UP.
IN EITHER CASE, THE RAIN CHANCES APPEAR TO INCREASE AGAIN HEADING
LATER IN THE WEEK AS THE TROUGH OVER CANADA BEGINS TO DIG
SOUTHEASTWARD AND THE SOUTHWEST US HIGH SHIFTS WESTWARD AND THEN
BEGINS TO AMPLIFY, PUMPING UP A ROBUST, POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE
AXIS FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHERN NUNAVUT. AT THE
SURFACE, THE FRONT OVER US OR TO OUR SOUTH TURNS FRONTOLYTIC AS A
NEW COLD FRONT SETTLES SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY.
IN TERMS OF HEAVY RAINFALL, A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 4) ERO IS IN PLACE
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT TO HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT OF ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING SHOULD STORMS BECOME PERSISTENT OVER A GIVEN LOCATION AHEAD
OF THE FIRST COLD FRONT. A RENEWED LOW-END EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THREAT
MAY RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK AS MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF THE
SECOND BOUNDARY, BUT THAT IS BEYOND THE WPC ERO WINDOW AT THIS
POINT. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL SETTLE BACK INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 80S FOR DAILY HIGHS EACH AFTERNOON WHILE NIGHTTIME
LOWS RETREAT INTO THE 65 TO 70F RANGE FOR MOST LOCALES. THE
TYPICAL VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY ON ANY NIGHT WITH SUBSTANTIAL
CLEARING.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 155 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2026
WE ARE SEEING SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
THESE WILL REMAIN AROUND THE 3.5 KFT LEVEL IN MOST CASES. WE ARE
SEEING SOME DEEPER CONVECTION DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN,
BUT SO FAR HAS BEEN MORE LIMITED THAN EXPECTED SO FAR. GIVEN THIS
OPTED TO PUSH BACK THE START TIME OF THE PROB30 FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ANOTHER HOUR, BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF CONVECTION SO FAR THIS
AFTERNOON OPTED TO NOT GO TEMPO. OUTSIDE CONVECTION WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE GENERALLY BELOW 5 KNOTS.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...GEERTSON/GREIF
AVIATION...DJ
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page