337
FXUS63 KJKL 052047
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
447 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT ARRIVES. A FEW STORMS COULD
PRODUCE ISOLATED STRONG WINDS AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
- THE HEAT WAVE BREAKS NEXT WEEK, WITH DAILY HIGHS RETURNING TO
NEAR-NORMAL LEVELS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ALONGSIDE DAILY
CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2026
THE AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY. THE CONVECTION TODAY HAS BEEN
SLOW TO DEVELOP AND COULD BE THE RESULT OF SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
NOTED IN THE PWAT VALUES FROM THE SPC MESOANALYSIS. OVERALL WE
HAVE SEEN ONLY SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE VIRGINIA BORDER AND HAVE CONTINUED TO PUSH POP TIMING
BACK. THE CAMS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING IN THIS MORE SUMMER LIKE
PATTERN, BUT DO STILL SHOW SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING LATER THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THIS DO KEEP POPS IN THE
30-40 PERCENT RANGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SPC DOES HAVE US IN THE
MARGINAL RISK STILL AND WHILE THE CHANCES SEEM ON THE LOWER SIDE
WE ARE SEEING DCAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS IN STRONGER STORMS. WPC
HAS US IN THE MARGINAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND AGAIN THIS SEEM
LOWER END CHANCE AS WELL, AND WOULD LIKELY BE A RESULT OF THE
SLOWER MOVING NATURE OF THE STORMS.
OVERALL THE CONVECTION WILL BE MOSTLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND EXPECT
THAT WE WILL SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION MOSTLY RELENT TO ISOLATED TO
LITTLE IF ANY ACTIVITY TONIGHT. THEN WE WILL BE LEFT WITH A MIX OF
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. THIS SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR AT LEAST A
FEW DEGREE SPLITS IN RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURES, WITH VALLEYS GETTING
INTO THE UPPER 60S. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE TYPICAL RIVER VALLEY FOG
DEVELOPMENT AND THIS COULD BE MORE PRONOUNCED IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE
RAINFALL.
MONDAY, THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE AREA. IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS WE SEE A CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPING
TO THE WEST AND WE GET STUCK IN BETWEEN. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE
EVEN SUGGESTS SLIGHT HEIGHT RISES AS A RESULT. HOWEVER, THERE IS
STILL SOME WEAK VORTICITY NOTED WITHIN THESE FEATURES WHICH WILL
STILL HAVE THE COMBINED POTENTIAL FOR AIDING IN THE TYPICAL
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. THE CAMS SHOW A SIMILAR LOOK OR MAYBE
A SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE LOOK FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION THAN
TODAY. OVERALL STILL LOOKS TO FAVOR THE TYPICAL TERRAIN LOCATIONS
NEAR THE TENNESSEE AND VIRGINIA BORDERS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL TOP
OUT INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MOST CASES, BUT THIS WILL ALSO
DEPEND ON CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. MONDAY NIGHT, THE OVERALL
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL LOWER AS AGAIN WE LOOSE DAYTIME HEATING.
ONCE AGAIN EXPECT VALLEYS TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S FOR LOWS AND
SOME MAINLY RIVER VALLEY FOG TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT
SEE RAINFALL ON MONDAY.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 447 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2026
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
BECOMING LESS AMPLIFIED OVER THE CONUS THROUGH MID-WEEK, BEFORE
AMPLIFYING ONCE AGAIN INTO NEXT WEEKEND. EVEN SMALLER SCALE
FEATURES START OUT FAIRLY WELL AGREED UPON BY THE MODELS, BUT AS
IS USUALLY THE CASE, THIS BREAKS DOWN WITH TIME. FORTUNATELY, A
TYPICAL SUMMER-TIME PATTERN WILL ROLL ON ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY,
ALTHOUGH WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN PLACE, ALONG WITH
THE THREAT OF DAILY DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION.
A POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH WILL BE ALIGNED FROM NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS THE MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. A CLOSED LOW WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS TROUGH, IN THE
VICINITY OF ARKANSAS. THE ECMWF HAS HAD THIS FEATURE FOR SEVERAL
MODEL RUNS, WITH THE GFS MORE RECENTLY LATCHING ONTO IT. AT THE
SURFACE, BROAD LOW PRESSURE WILL BE POSITIONED ACROSS THE
OHIO/WEST VIRGINIA BORDER, WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED SOUTHWEST THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. POPS WILL
GENERALLY PEAK ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE AREA, GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES, WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
CONVECTION FORECAST TO DEVELOP. AS THE TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT
WEAKEN MID-WEEK, POPS WILL LESSEN ACROSS THE AREA, WITH A GENERAL
MINIMUM FORECAST BY THURSDAY.
THE NEXT SURGE OF MOISTURE AND HIGHER PWAT AIR WILL MOVE IN
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, AS TROUGHING REESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY, WITH A MORE DEFINED SURFACE FRONT PUSHING
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE COMMONWEALTH. MODELS SHOW MORE DISAGREEMENT
WITH THE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THESE FEATURES, BUT EXPECT A
GENERAL INCREASE IN POPS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
FRIDAY. SOME HIGHER EFFICIENT RAINERS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS
PERIOD. THE BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY EXIT TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH DEEPER MOISTURE DOES SEEM TO BE DIMINISHING
MORE DECISIVELY WITH TIME PER THE LREF CLIMATOLOGICAL PWATS. AS
SUCH, THE BLENDED GUIDANCE POPS MAY BE A BIT GENEROUS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AVERAGING CLOSER TO SEASONABLE NORMALS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S,
AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 155 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2026
WE ARE SEEING SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
THESE WILL REMAIN AROUND THE 3.5 KFT LEVEL IN MOST CASES. WE ARE
SEEING SOME DEEPER CONVECTION DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN,
BUT SO FAR HAS BEEN MORE LIMITED THAN EXPECTED SO FAR. GIVEN THIS
OPTED TO PUSH BACK THE START TIME OF THE PROB30 FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ANOTHER HOUR, BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF CONVECTION SO FAR THIS
AFTERNOON OPTED TO NOT GO TEMPO. OUTSIDE CONVECTION WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE GENERALLY BELOW 5 KNOTS.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...JKL
AVIATION...DJ
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