542
FXUS63 KJKL 062048
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
448 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.
- THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 447 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2026
A WEAK AND DECAYING COLD FRONT IS NEAR THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TODAY, JUST SOUTHEAST OF A WEAK, POSITIVELY
TILTED UPPER TROUGH. VERY MOIST AIR IS IN PLACE, AND
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POPPING UP WITH THE DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT
OF INSTABILITY, AIDED BY THE WEAK SYNOPTIC FEATURES MENTIONED.
ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS AMPLE, SHEAR IS WEAK AND STORMS ARE NOT
WELL ORGANIZED. OUTFLOW COLLISIONS ARE RESULTING IN SOME BRIEF,
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS, AND SOME LIMITED TRAINING IS GIVING
ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL. WILL LOOK FOR AN OVERALL DECREASE IN
ACTIVITY TONIGHT AS INSTABILITY WANES AND THERE'S LITTLE FORCING.
THE DYING FRONT MAY BE A BIT FURTHER SOUTH AND INTO THE JKL
FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY, BUT NO APPRECIABLE CHANGE IN AIR MASS OR
SET-UP WILL OCCUR. HENCE, A REPEAT PERFORMANCE IS EXPECTED
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH ENOUGH DECREASE IN CLOUDS AT
NIGHT, FOG SHOULD DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY IN VALLEYS AND WHERE RAIN
OCCURS PRIOR.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 447 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2026
AN UPDATED LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 237 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE ON THE INCREASE AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE TN BORDER AND NEAR/NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 64. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
EVENTUALLY DEVELOP OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE HEAVIER
PRECIP, WHILE MAINLY VFR OCCURS OUTSIDE OF PRECIP. A GENERAL
DECLINE IN ACTIVITY IS FORECAST DURING THE NIGHT. HOWEVER,
ASSUMING CLOUDS BREAK UP ENOUGH, FOG IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP. ALL
TAF SITES ARE EXPECTING IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. THE FOG DISSIPATES ON TUESDAY MORNING, LEAVING VFR AREA
WIDE LATE IN THE MORNING.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JKL
AVIATION...HAL
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