032
FXUS63 KJKL 062221
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
621 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.
- THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
- LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A THREAT EACH DAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 447 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2026
A WEAK AND DECAYING COLD FRONT IS NEAR THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TODAY, JUST SOUTHEAST OF A WEAK, POSITIVELY
TILTED UPPER TROUGH. VERY MOIST AIR IS IN PLACE, AND
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POPPING UP WITH THE DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT
OF INSTABILITY, AIDED BY THE WEAK SYNOPTIC FEATURES MENTIONED.
ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS AMPLE, SHEAR IS WEAK AND STORMS ARE NOT
WELL ORGANIZED. OUTFLOW COLLISIONS ARE RESULTING IN SOME BRIEF,
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS, AND SOME LIMITED TRAINING IS GIVING
ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL. WILL LOOK FOR AN OVERALL DECREASE IN
ACTIVITY TONIGHT AS INSTABILITY WANES AND THERE'S LITTLE FORCING.
THE DYING FRONT MAY BE A BIT FURTHER SOUTH AND INTO THE JKL
FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY, BUT NO APPRECIABLE CHANGE IN AIR MASS OR
SET-UP WILL OCCUR. HENCE, A REPEAT PERFORMANCE IS EXPECTED
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH ENOUGH DECREASE IN CLOUDS AT
NIGHT, FOG SHOULD DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY IN VALLEYS AND WHERE RAIN
OCCURS PRIOR.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 621 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2026
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING AN AMPLIFYING
LONG WAVE PATTERN TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. DETAIL DIFFERENCES DO GROW WITH TIME, ESPECIALLY PERTAINING
TO QUESTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE MESOSCALE. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE POSITIONED NEAR THE IL/KY/MO BORDER TO
BEGIN WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH
STRETCHED SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. FURTHER
EAST, RIDGING REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS,
WHILE ANOTHER HIGH CENTER REMAINS OVER THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN CONUS.
THE UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY DAMPEN AND SHIFT EAST THROUGH MID-
WEEK, BEFORE THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS RIDGE AMPLIFIES, WITH
DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING ALSO SHARPENING FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. BY THE END OF THE WEEK, AN ANOMALOUSLY
STRONG HIGH WILL BE SPRAWLED FROM THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES TO
THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS, WHILE A BROADER TROUGH IS
ESTABLISHED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD EAST WITH TIME INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH THE EASTERN
TROUGH ENHANCING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
ALL OF THIS RESULTS IN SUSTAINING THE TRUE SUMMER-TIME PATTERN
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY, WITH DAILY CONVECTIVE CHANCES MAINLY
PEAKING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED AWAY FROM SHOWING MUCH OF A BREAK IN THE ACTION THROUGH
MID-WEEK, GIVEN THE INFLUENCE OF THE DAMPENING UPPER LEVEL LOW IN
THE VICINITY OF THE COMMONWEALTH AND ALSO A DIFFUSE SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARBY OR JUST TO OUR SOUTH. PWATS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, WITH A PARTICULARLY BETTER SURGE OF
850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT SEEN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. GIVEN THIS
MORE UNSETTLED TREND IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE, WPC NOW HAS A
MARGINAL EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK IN PLACE ACROSS OUR AREA EACH
DAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL ENDING 12Z SATURDAY. A MORE DECISIVE COLD FRONT WILL
SETTLE SOUTH OF THE COMMONWEALTH BY LATER THIS WEEKEND OR
SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK. EVENTUALLY, THIS WILL RESULT IN
DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES AND LOWER DEW POINTS, ALTHOUGH TIMING
THIS FAR OUT REMAINS PROBLEMATIC. TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT MONDAY
WILL BE SEASONABLE, WITH DAILY HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 237 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE ON THE INCREASE AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE TN BORDER AND NEAR/NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 64. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
EVENTUALLY DEVELOP OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE HEAVIER
PRECIP, WHILE MAINLY VFR OCCURS OUTSIDE OF PRECIP. A GENERAL
DECLINE IN ACTIVITY IS FORECAST DURING THE NIGHT. HOWEVER,
ASSUMING CLOUDS BREAK UP ENOUGH, FOG IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP. ALL
TAF SITES ARE EXPECTING IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. THE FOG DISSIPATES ON TUESDAY MORNING, LEAVING VFR AREA
WIDE LATE IN THE MORNING.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JKL
AVIATION...HAL
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