014
FXUS63 KJKL 070605 AAA
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
205 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK.
- THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
WEEK, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
- LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A THREAT EACH DAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2026
ASIDE FROM BEEFING UP THE FOG AND TAKING OUT MOST OF THE POPS FOR
THE REST OF THE NIGHT, NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
FORECAST WITH MAINLY JUST THE INCLUSION OF THE LATEST OBS AND
TRENDS FOR THE T/TD/SKY GRIDS. THESE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN
SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS ALONG WITH A FRESHENING OF THE
HWO, SAFS, AND ZONES. AN SPS FOR DENSE FOG WAS ALSO ISSUED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1004 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2026
GRIDS HAVE LARGELY BEEN ON TRACK; HOWEVER, RECENT RAINFALL AND
NONEXISTENT DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS HAS HELPED CREATE LOCALLY DENSE
FOG. THEREFORE, UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FOG. GRIDS
HAVE BEEN SAVED AND SENT.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 447 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2026
A WEAK AND DECAYING COLD FRONT IS NEAR THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TODAY, JUST SOUTHEAST OF A WEAK, POSITIVELY
TILTED UPPER TROUGH. VERY MOIST AIR IS IN PLACE, AND
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POPPING UP WITH THE DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT
OF INSTABILITY, AIDED BY THE WEAK SYNOPTIC FEATURES MENTIONED.
ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS AMPLE, SHEAR IS WEAK AND STORMS ARE NOT
WELL ORGANIZED. OUTFLOW COLLISIONS ARE RESULTING IN SOME BRIEF,
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS, AND SOME LIMITED TRAINING IS GIVING
ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL. WILL LOOK FOR AN OVERALL DECREASE IN
ACTIVITY TONIGHT AS INSTABILITY WANES AND THERE'S LITTLE FORCING.
THE DYING FRONT MAY BE A BIT FURTHER SOUTH AND INTO THE JKL
FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY, BUT NO APPRECIABLE CHANGE IN AIR MASS OR
SET-UP WILL OCCUR. HENCE, A REPEAT PERFORMANCE IS EXPECTED
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH ENOUGH DECREASE IN CLOUDS AT
NIGHT, FOG SHOULD DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY IN VALLEYS AND WHERE RAIN
OCCURS PRIOR.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 621 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2026
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING AN AMPLIFYING
LONG WAVE PATTERN TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. DETAIL DIFFERENCES DO GROW WITH TIME, ESPECIALLY PERTAINING
TO QUESTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE MESOSCALE. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE POSITIONED NEAR THE IL/KY/MO BORDER TO
BEGIN WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH
STRETCHED SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. FURTHER
EAST, RIDGING REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS,
WHILE ANOTHER HIGH CENTER REMAINS OVER THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN CONUS.
THE UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY DAMPEN AND SHIFT EAST THROUGH MID-
WEEK, BEFORE THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS RIDGE AMPLIFIES, WITH
DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING ALSO SHARPENING FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. BY THE END OF THE WEEK, AN ANOMALOUSLY
STRONG HIGH WILL BE SPRAWLED FROM THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES TO
THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS, WHILE A BROADER TROUGH IS
ESTABLISHED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD EAST WITH TIME INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH THE EASTERN
TROUGH ENHANCING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
ALL OF THIS RESULTS IN SUSTAINING THE TRUE SUMMER-TIME PATTERN
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY, WITH DAILY CONVECTIVE CHANCES MAINLY
PEAKING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED AWAY FROM SHOWING MUCH OF A BREAK IN THE ACTION THROUGH
MID-WEEK, GIVEN THE INFLUENCE OF THE DAMPENING UPPER LEVEL LOW IN
THE VICINITY OF THE COMMONWEALTH AND ALSO A DIFFUSE SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARBY OR JUST TO OUR SOUTH. PWATS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, WITH A PARTICULARLY BETTER SURGE OF
850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT SEEN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. GIVEN THIS
MORE UNSETTLED TREND IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE, WPC NOW HAS A
MARGINAL EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK IN PLACE ACROSS OUR AREA EACH
DAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL ENDING 12Z SATURDAY. A MORE DECISIVE COLD FRONT WILL
SETTLE SOUTH OF THE COMMONWEALTH BY LATER THIS WEEKEND OR
SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK. EVENTUALLY, THIS WILL RESULT IN
DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES AND LOWER DEW POINTS, ALTHOUGH TIMING
THIS FAR OUT REMAINS PROBLEMATIC. TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT MONDAY
WILL BE SEASONABLE, WITH DAILY HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 205 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2026
A COMBINATION OF MAINLY POOR OBSERVATIONS EXIST ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY AS AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE DEVELOPING AND MOVING OVER MANY
OF THE TERMINALS. VLIFR TO MVFR FOG IS LIKELY ACROSS THE AVIATION
FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNRISE. THEN, A BRIEF LULL WILL ALLOW FOR
TAFS TO BOUNCE BACK TO VFR BEFORE SHOWERS AND STORMS REDEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE
PERIOD BUT CONVECTION COULD BRING GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS
ALONG WITH CATEGORY REDUCTIONS.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JKL
AVIATION...VORST
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