700
FXUS63 KJKL 071838
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
238 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK.
- THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
WEEK, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
- LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A THREAT THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS,
WITH A THREAT OF AT LEAST ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING
EACH DAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 238 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2026
WEAK FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS STATE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A
CLOSED MID-LEVEL AND UPPER LOW OVER THE MID-SOUTH REGION AND A WEAK
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY/FRONT LOCATED JUST SOUTH TO THE SOUTH AND
PARALLEL OF THE OHIO RIVER. HUMID AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
PERSIST TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT, AND WILL LIKELY SERVE AS THE
IMPETUS FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON, DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. THE RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW ALOFT
WILL SUPPORT SOMEWHAT SLOW STORM MOTIONS, WHICH COULD RESULT IN
LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND RESULTING HIGH WATER ISSUES.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE BOUNDARY RETREATS NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS MID-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES MODESTLY FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE WEAKENING/FILLING MID-LEVEL LOW TO
THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE
FORECAST, BUT WHERE THIS IS ANY CLEARING FOG IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP,
ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND LASTING INTO THE MID-MORNING WEDNESDAY
BEFORE LIFTING/BURNING OFF. EXPECT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RIDGE-VALLEY
SPLITS GIVEN THE HIGH HUMIDITY AND LITTLE CHANGE IN AIR MASS.
MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE A BIT STRONGER OVER SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY
WEDNESDAY, BUT IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME TO BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
ORGANIZED CONVECTION. THE BIGGEST IMPACT MAY BE TO HELP PROVIDE A
BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE STORM MOTIONS, AS HIGH HUMIDITY AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY TO THE SOUTH OF THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT/BOUNDARY, WHICH IS LIKELY TO BE LOCATED BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BETWEEN THE OHIO RIVER AND INTERSTATE 64. WOULD
THUS EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ONCE AGAIN
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING BEFORE ACTIVITY SLOWLY
DIMINISHES WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ISOLATED INSTANCES OF
FLASH FLOODING WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WHERE HEAVY RAIN MOVES
REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME AREA.
THE MID-LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN INTO AN OPEN TROUGH AND
CROSSES THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT, SUPPORTING AT LEAST SOME
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. WHERE THERE IS ANY
CLEARING, EXPECT WIDESPREAD FOG TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN WITH LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF RIDGE-VALLEY SPLITS IN TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2026
THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE GRIDS FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST THIS MORNING WAS TO ADD IN JUST A TOUCH OF TERRAIN
DETAILS EACH NIGHT ALONG WITH SOME VALLEY FOG. NEARBY TROUGHING
ALOFT STILL LOOKS TO KEEP THINGS UNSETTLED THROUGH THE PERIOD -
WITH HIGHEST POPS AND POTENTIAL QPF NOTED FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THIS IS WHEN THE CORE OF ANY MID-LEVEL ENERGY PASSES
THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY ALONG WITH A SOUTHWARD DROPPING SFC
BOUNDARY HEADING INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND - SYNOPTICALLY
ENHANCING THE PCPN.
THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING AN AMPLIFYING
LONG WAVE PATTERN TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. DETAIL DIFFERENCES DO GROW WITH TIME, ESPECIALLY PERTAINING
TO QUESTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE MESOSCALE. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE POSITIONED NEAR THE IL/KY/MO BORDER TO
BEGIN WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH
STRETCHED SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. FURTHER
EAST, RIDGING REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS,
WHILE ANOTHER HIGH CENTER REMAINS OVER THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN CONUS.
THE UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY DAMPEN AND SHIFT EAST THROUGH MID-
WEEK, BEFORE THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS RIDGE AMPLIFIES, WITH
DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING ALSO SHARPENING FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. BY THE END OF THE WEEK, AN ANOMALOUSLY
STRONG HIGH WILL BE SPRAWLED FROM THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES TO
THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS, WHILE A BROADER TROUGH IS
ESTABLISHED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD EAST WITH TIME INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH THE EASTERN
TROUGH ENHANCING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
ALL OF THIS RESULTS IN SUSTAINING THE TRUE SUMMER-TIME PATTERN
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY, WITH DAILY CONVECTIVE CHANCES MAINLY
PEAKING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED AWAY FROM SHOWING MUCH OF A BREAK IN THE ACTION THROUGH
MID-WEEK, GIVEN THE INFLUENCE OF THE DAMPENING UPPER LEVEL LOW IN
THE VICINITY OF THE COMMONWEALTH AND ALSO A DIFFUSE SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARBY OR JUST TO OUR SOUTH. PWATS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, WITH A PARTICULARLY BETTER SURGE OF
850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT SEEN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. GIVEN THIS
MORE UNSETTLED TREND IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE, WPC NOW HAS A
MARGINAL EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK IN PLACE ACROSS OUR AREA EACH
DAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL ENDING 12Z SATURDAY. A MORE DECISIVE COLD FRONT WILL
SETTLE SOUTH OF THE COMMONWEALTH BY LATER THIS WEEKEND OR
SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK. EVENTUALLY, THIS WILL RESULT IN
DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES AND LOWER DEW POINTS, ALTHOUGH TIMING
THIS FAR OUT REMAINS PROBLEMATIC. TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT MONDAY
WILL BE SEASONABLE, WITH DAILY HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 124 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2026
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT ALL OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF ALL TAF
SITES BEING IMPACTED AT LEAST BRIEFLY AT SOME POINT. ALSO
ANTICIPATE AT LEAST SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SETTING UP LATE
TONIGHT WITH LIKELY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS INTO DAWN WEDNESDAY.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT CONVECTION
COULD BRING GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS ALONG WITH CATEGORY
REDUCTIONS.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...JKL/GREIF
AVIATION...CMC
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