051
FXUS63 KJKL 071902
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
302 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK.
- THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
WEEK, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
- LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A THREAT THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS,
WITH A THREAT OF AT LEAST ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING
EACH DAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 238 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2026
WEAK FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS STATE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A
CLOSED MID-LEVEL AND UPPER LOW OVER THE MID-SOUTH REGION AND A WEAK
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY/FRONT LOCATED JUST SOUTH TO THE SOUTH AND
PARALLEL OF THE OHIO RIVER. HUMID AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
PERSIST TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT, AND WILL LIKELY SERVE AS THE
IMPETUS FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON, DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. THE RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW ALOFT
WILL SUPPORT SOMEWHAT SLOW STORM MOTIONS, WHICH COULD RESULT IN
LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND RESULTING HIGH WATER ISSUES.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE BOUNDARY RETREATS NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS MID-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES MODESTLY FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE WEAKENING/FILLING MID-LEVEL LOW TO
THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE
FORECAST, BUT WHERE THIS IS ANY CLEARING FOG IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP,
ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND LASTING INTO THE MID-MORNING WEDNESDAY
BEFORE LIFTING/BURNING OFF. EXPECT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RIDGE-VALLEY
SPLITS GIVEN THE HIGH HUMIDITY AND LITTLE CHANGE IN AIR MASS.
MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE A BIT STRONGER OVER SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY
WEDNESDAY, BUT IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME TO BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
ORGANIZED CONVECTION. THE BIGGEST IMPACT MAY BE TO HELP PROVIDE A
BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE STORM MOTIONS, AS HIGH HUMIDITY AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY TO THE SOUTH OF THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT/BOUNDARY, WHICH IS LIKELY TO BE LOCATED BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BETWEEN THE OHIO RIVER AND INTERSTATE 64. WOULD
THUS EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ONCE AGAIN
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING BEFORE ACTIVITY SLOWLY
DIMINISHES WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ISOLATED INSTANCES OF
FLASH FLOODING WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WHERE HEAVY RAIN MOVES
REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME AREA.
THE MID-LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN INTO AN OPEN TROUGH AND
CROSSES THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT, SUPPORTING AT LEAST SOME
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. WHERE THERE IS ANY
CLEARING, EXPECT WIDESPREAD FOG TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN WITH LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF RIDGE-VALLEY SPLITS IN TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2026
THURSDAY, A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH FEATURING AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS MODELED OVER THE IN/IL/KY AREA. A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IS ALSO MODELED OVER THE IOWA AREA. FURTHER WEST, AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST.
HEADING INTO FRIDAY THE SECONDARY LOW OVER IOWA MOVES INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY, WHILE RIDGING AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN US. LATE FRIDAY
EVENING A THIRD DISTURBANCE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL SPILL INTO THE
PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY BY SATURDAY,
AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO A 598-DM HEAT DOME OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER IN EASTERN KENTUCKY, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY, WITH CHANCES SLOWLY
DIMINISHING BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY. MODEL PWATS
GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 1.75 INCHES THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE
PERIOD BUT PEAK FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THOSE PWATS
RANGE ANYWHERE FROM 2.0-2.1 INCHES, AND ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF MEAN
PWAT, THE VALUES FALL WITHIN THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMALS. GIVEN THE ABNORMAL PWAT, RECENT RAINFALL, AND POTENTIAL TO
EXCEED FLOOD GUIDANCE WITH ANY GOOD STORM WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAIN, THE WPC HAS PLACED ALL OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY IN A MARGINAL RISK ON THURSDAY, AND A SLIGHT RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
TUESDAY, RISING HEIGHTS WILL LEAD TO WARMING TEMPERATURES AS
MULTIPLE MODELS SHOW A 600-DM HIGH OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. ONE CAN EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND DRY
CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S THROUGH SUNDAY,
WITH LOWS COOLING INTO THE UPPER 60S. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE AREA MONDAY AND BEYOND, TEMPERATURES MAY BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES COOL INTO
THE UPPER 60S.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 124 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2026
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT ALL OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF ALL TAF
SITES BEING IMPACTED AT LEAST BRIEFLY AT SOME POINT. ALSO
ANTICIPATE AT LEAST SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SETTING UP LATE
TONIGHT WITH LIKELY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS INTO DAWN WEDNESDAY.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT CONVECTION
COULD BRING GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS ALONG WITH CATEGORY
REDUCTIONS.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...CMC
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