242
FXUS63 KJKL 080126
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
926 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK.
- THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
WEEK, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
- LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A POSSIBILITY THROUGH THE NEXT 7
DAYS, WITH A THREAT OF AT LEAST ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING EACH
DAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 926 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2026
AFTER AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON OF CONVECTION DRIVEN LARGELY BY VARYING
OUTFLOWS BENEATH WEAK STEERING CURRENTS ALOFT, THE PRECIPITATION
IS WANING QUICKLY. EVEN SO, A FEW ROGUE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO POP UP AT TIMES. WILL LOOK FOR THE QUIETER REGIME TO
CONTINUE TONIGHT, WITH AN OVERALL DECREASE IN CLOUDS AS CONVECTION
LESSENS WITH LOSS OF INSTABILITY. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN
OVERNIGHT SKY CONDITION IS MEAGER. WITH ENOUGH CLEARING, FOG COULD
BECOME WIDESPREAD, ESPECIALLY WHERE PRECIP OCCURRED.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 238 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2026
WEAK FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS STATE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A
CLOSED MID-LEVEL AND UPPER LOW OVER THE MID-SOUTH REGION AND A WEAK
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY/FRONT LOCATED JUST SOUTH TO THE SOUTH AND
PARALLEL OF THE OHIO RIVER. HUMID AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
PERSIST TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT, AND WILL LIKELY SERVE AS THE
IMPETUS FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON, DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. THE RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW ALOFT
WILL SUPPORT SOMEWHAT SLOW STORM MOTIONS, WHICH COULD RESULT IN
LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND RESULTING HIGH WATER ISSUES.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE BOUNDARY RETREATS NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS MID-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES MODESTLY FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE WEAKENING/FILLING MID-LEVEL LOW TO
THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE
FORECAST, BUT WHERE THIS IS ANY CLEARING FOG IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP,
ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND LASTING INTO THE MID-MORNING WEDNESDAY
BEFORE LIFTING/BURNING OFF. EXPECT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RIDGE-VALLEY
SPLITS GIVEN THE HIGH HUMIDITY AND LITTLE CHANGE IN AIR MASS.
MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE A BIT STRONGER OVER SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY
WEDNESDAY, BUT IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME TO BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
ORGANIZED CONVECTION. THE BIGGEST IMPACT MAY BE TO HELP PROVIDE A
BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE STORM MOTIONS, AS HIGH HUMIDITY AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY TO THE SOUTH OF THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT/BOUNDARY, WHICH IS LIKELY TO BE LOCATED BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BETWEEN THE OHIO RIVER AND INTERSTATE 64. WOULD
THUS EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ONCE AGAIN
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING BEFORE ACTIVITY SLOWLY
DIMINISHES WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ISOLATED INSTANCES OF
FLASH FLOODING WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WHERE HEAVY RAIN MOVES
REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME AREA.
THE MID-LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN INTO AN OPEN TROUGH AND
CROSSES THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT, SUPPORTING AT LEAST SOME
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. WHERE THERE IS ANY
CLEARING, EXPECT WIDESPREAD FOG TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN WITH LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF RIDGE-VALLEY SPLITS IN TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2026
THURSDAY, A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH FEATURING AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS MODELED OVER THE IN/IL/KY AREA. A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IS ALSO MODELED OVER THE IOWA AREA. FURTHER WEST, AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST.
HEADING INTO FRIDAY THE SECONDARY LOW OVER IOWA MOVES INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY, WHILE RIDGING AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN US. LATE FRIDAY
EVENING A THIRD DISTURBANCE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL SPILL INTO THE
PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY BY SATURDAY,
AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO A 598-DM HEAT DOME OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER IN EASTERN KENTUCKY, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY, WITH CHANCES SLOWLY
DIMINISHING BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY. MODEL PWATS
GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 1.75 INCHES THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE
PERIOD BUT PEAK FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THOSE PWATS
RANGE ANYWHERE FROM 2.0-2.1 INCHES, AND ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF MEAN
PWAT, THE VALUES FALL WITHIN THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMALS. GIVEN THE ABNORMAL PWAT, RECENT RAINFALL, AND POTENTIAL TO
EXCEED FLOOD GUIDANCE WITH ANY GOOD STORM WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAIN, THE WPC HAS PLACED ALL OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY IN A MARGINAL RISK ON THURSDAY, AND A SLIGHT RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
TUESDAY, RISING HEIGHTS WILL LEAD TO WARMING TEMPERATURES AS
MULTIPLE MODELS SHOW A 600-DM HIGH OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. ONE CAN EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND DRY
CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S THROUGH SUNDAY,
WITH LOWS COOLING INTO THE UPPER 60S. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE AREA MONDAY AND BEYOND, TEMPERATURES MAY BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES COOL INTO
THE UPPER 60S.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 926 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2026
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WERE ONGOING AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD. THEY WERE BRINGING LOCALIZED SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS, BUT OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS WERE VFR. THE PRECIPITATION
WILL DECLINE FURTHER THIS EVENING AND MY BE LARGELY GONE
OVERNIGHT. EVEN SO, IT CAN'T BE GUARANTEED THAT THERE WON'T BE
SOMETHING POP UP. AT THIS POINT, THE PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE MENTIONS AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES. HOWEVER, AS CLOUDS
DECREASE, FOG IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND LAST INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS IS FORECAST TO BRING GENERALIZED IFR OR
WORSE CONDITIONS, WITH THE WORST EXPECTED TO BE IN VALLEYS AND
WHERE SIGNIFICANT RAIN OCCURRED. THE EXTENT OF CLEARING WILL BE A
FACTOR IN THE EXTENT OF FOG, WITH CLEARING FAVORING MORE FOG.
WHATEVER FOG THERE IS WILL DISSIPATE ON WEDNESDAY MORNING,
POSSIBLY CONVERTING TO A LOW CLOUD DECK BEFORE LEAVING. VFR
CONDITIONS THEN RETURN UNTIL MORE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
AFTER DAYTIME HEATING OCCURS. THIS ONCE AGAIN RESULTS IN LOCALIZED
IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...HAL
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