137
FXUS63 KJKL 081838
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
238 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK.
- THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE
WEEKEND.
- HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED AT TIMES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THIS WEEKEND, WITH A THREAT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED INSTANCES
OF FLASH FLOODING.
- A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL ACROSS
THE AREA, AND IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1231 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2026
A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE GROWING POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING. BEFORE THEN, FROM THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY LOCALIZED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM SLOW-
MOVING AND/OR TRAINING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HOURLY POPS WERE GENERALLY EXPANDED AND INCREASED FROM THE PRIOR
FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND TONIGHT, WITH LITTLE OTHER
NEEDED CHANGES TO THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME IN THE NEAR TERM.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 930 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2026
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE, WITH SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWING FOG AND LOW STRATUS BURNING OFF FAIRLY RAPIDLY.
PRIMARY UPDATE WAS TO TREND HIGHER WITH SKY COVER, UTILIZING MORE
OF A BLEND OF MODELS. OTHERWISE, UPDATES TO HOURLY T/TD GRIDS WERE
MADE IN THE NEAR TERM, WITH THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS USED TO
INITIALIZE THE NDFD DATABASE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 725 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2026
ALMOST A REPEAT OF YESTERDAY MORNING WITH A NEED FOR A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY, THOUGH IT SEEMS TO BE LIFTING TO A STRATUS SO MAY NOT BE
AS MUCH OF A CONCERN FOR VALLEYS NOW. OTHERWISE, NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH MAINLY JUST THE INCLUSION
OF THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS FOR THE T/TD/SKY GRIDS. THESE TWEAKS
HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS ALONG WITH A FRESHENING
OF THE ZONES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2026
08Z SFC ANALYSIS STILL SHOWS A WEAK AND ILL DEFINED PRESSURE
PATTERN OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS IS ALLOWING THE DIURNAL CYCLE
TO BE THE MAIN DRIVER OF THE WEATHER. AT NIGHT, THE CONVECTION
DIES OFF ALONG WITH MUCH OF THE CLOUDS ALLOWING VERY LIMITED
RADIATION COOLING AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG - BECOMING DENSE IN
THE VALLEYS. AGAIN DUE TO HIGH HUMIDITY THERE IS MINIMAL TERRAIN
DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP IN THE TEMPERATURES. SPECIFICALLY, READINGS
ARE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH SIMILAR
DEWPOINTS, AMID LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. AN SPS IS AGAIN IN EFFECT FOR
AREAS OF DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE ENTIRETY OF THE
JKL CWA.
THE MODELS, AND THEIR INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE SUITES, REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST
EVEN AS THEY INDICATE MORE AMPLIFICATION TO END THE WORK WEEK.
INITIALLY, THEY ALL DEPICT A POSITIVELY TILTED 5H TROUGH IN PLACE
OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH WESTERN KENTUCKY. THIS TROUGH
WILL FILL AND DAMPEN THROUGH THURSDAY AS IT SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST
WITH VERY SMALL HEIGHT FALLS FOR THE AREA. LATE IN THE PERIOD THE
WESTERLIES AT MID-LEVEL RUNNING THROUGH THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY
START TO SPEED UP AND SETTLE SOUTH TOWARD KENTUCKY. THIS
ESSENTIALLY SETS THE STAGE FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES - SOME
PROBABLY CONVECTIVELY INDUCED FROM UPSTREAM - TO IMPACT THE AREA
INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE GOOD ENOUGH AGREEMENT
AMONG THE MODELS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY, THE NBM WAS USED AS THE
STARTING POINT FOR THE GRIDS WITH SOME ADJUSTMENT APPLIED FOR VERY
MINOR TERRAIN DETAILS IN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. AS FOR POPS,
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE FOR CONVECTIVE TIMING AND COVERAGE WERE
INCLUDED FROM THE LATEST CAM RUNS. THESE WERE AGAIN SMOOTHED AND
FITTED TO A REASONABLE DIURNAL TREND - THOUGH WITH MORE INFLUENCE
FROM MID AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS POSSIBLY EXTENDING THE
CONVECTION LATER INTO THE NIGHTS THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF THEM.
SENSIBLE WEATHER FEATURES TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS STUCK ON
REPEAT AS CONDITIONS WILL BE WARM AND HUMID WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING CONVECTION. OVERLAID ON THIS FAIRLY PREDICTABLE
PATTERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR OUTSIDE INFLUENCE IN THE FORM
OF WAVES AT MID LEVEL WORKING INTO OR NEAR THE JKL CWA -
PARTICULARLY ON THURSDAY AND BEYOND. SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND HIGH
PWS (AT TIMES OVER 2 INCHES) IN PLACE MEANS A HEIGHTENED CONCERN
FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING - ESPECIALLY FOR PLACES THAT SEE TRAINING
CELLS - BECOMING CUMULATIVE BY WEEK'S END WITH ISOLATED FLOOD
CONCERNS PEAKING. IN ADDITION TO THE EXCESSIVE RAIN, WE WILL ALSO
NEED TO BE ON THE LOOK OUT FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION FROM THOSE
STRENGTHENING AND NEARING WESTERLIES BRINGING PERTURBANCES CLOSER
TO THE AREA SUCH THAT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS COULD BE POSSIBLE FROM
ANY MORE ORGANIZED STORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING -
ESPECIALLY OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES.
THE MAIN ADJUSTMENTS TO THE NBM STARTING POINT WERE TO INCLUDE
MORE HIGH RESOLUTION CAMS DETAILS (SMOOTHED) INTO THE POPS AND
THUNDER POTENTIAL GRIDS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2026
AT THE ONSET OF THE EXTENDED, TWO SHORTWAVES WILL BE IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY OF ONE ANOTHER, THE FIRST OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA AND
WESTERN KENTUCKY, THE OTHER BEING JUST WEST OVER THE SOUTH
DAKOTA/NEBRASKA AREA. IN ADDITION TO THESE TWO FEATURES, SPLIT FLOW
REMAINS OVER WESTERN CONUS, WITH A TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA, AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
THROUGH SATURDAY, THE TWO SHORTWAVES PHASE INTO A MORE DEFINED
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS.
FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY, WITH A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. WHILE SHOWER
AND STORMS CHANCES REMAIN MONDAY, THEY WILL BE MORE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED COMPARED TO THE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT
ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ECMWF MEAN PWATS, CONTINUE TO SHOW
MODEL OUTPUT FALLING AROUND THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMALS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE SATURDAY WITH PWATS RANGING FROM
1.90-2.10 INCHES. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. IF AN AREA SEES REPEATED ROUNDS OF THESE
STORMS, ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING COULD OCCUR EACH OF THE
DAYS LISTED ABOVE. THE WPC CONTINUES TO HAVE THE AREA IN A SLIGHT
RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, AND A MARGINAL
RISK ON SUNDAY.
BY MONDAY, A STRONG 600-DM HIGH IS MODELED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND CENTRAL PLAINS, WITH THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF IT INFRINGING ON
THE AREA. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE, WITH EXISTING
SCATTERED CHANCES LOOKING GREATEST ACROSS SOUTHERN POTIONS OF THE
CWA. A DEPARTING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG THE
KY/TN BORDER LEADING TO THESES LINGERING CHANCES. THE LONG
FORGOTTEN TROUGH OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST BACK ON FRIDAY WILL
HAVE NAVIGATED AROUND THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL FLATTEN THE
HIGH SOME, ALLOWING FOR HIGHER HEIGHTS OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY. WHILE
THIS USUALLY EQUATES TO MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES, MODEL 850-MB
TEMPERATURES REMAIN SUPPRESSED.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID
80S THROUGH MONDAY, BECOMING MID TO UPPER 80S TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. IN THE EVENINGS TEMPERATURES GENERALLY COOL INTO THE
UPPER 60S.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 128 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2026
A MIX OF CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. THIS ONCE AGAIN RESULTS IN LOCALIZED IFR OR WORSE
CONDITIONS LIKELY LINGERING LATER INTO THE EVENING THAN THE PAST
COUPLE OF NIGHTS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AWAY FROM ANY
STORM.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
UPDATE...CMC
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...CMC
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page