082
FXUS63 KJKL 090118
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
918 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES INTO THE WEEKEND.
- HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THIS
WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WITH A THREAT OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING.
- A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR INCREASED FLASH FLOOD
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE AREA FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 703 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2026
HAVE INCORPORATED LATEST RADAR AND MESOSCALE MODEL TRENDS INTO
THE FORECAST, GIVING A MORE NOTABLE DROP OFF IN CONVECTION MIDWAY
THROUGH THE NIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 241 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2026
A MID-LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER THE LOWER OH/TN VALLEY WILL SLOWLY FILL
AND BECOME AN OPEN WAVE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS IT MOVES
UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. WESTERLY FLOW THEN BUILDS IN ITS WAKE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH ANOTHER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AN OVERALL
INCREASING TREND IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS LIKELY AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGH PWS AND
LOWER TO MID 70S DEWPOINTS. A BIT STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW THAN
YESTERDAY MEANS STORM MOTIONS ARE A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN
YESTERDAY, BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING OF HEAVY RAIN STILL
EXISTS, PARTICULARLY IN AREAS WHERE SOILS ARE ALREADY SATURATED FROM
RECENT PREVIOUS HEAVY RAINFALL. THUS, AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD
POTENTIAL REMAINS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL INCREASES THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT, AS ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED ON TOP OF INCREASINGLY WET SOILS. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN AT THE VERY END OF THE
PERIOD TOWARDS DAWN FRIDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF ONE OR MORE MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS. THUS, A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
STARTING AT 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON, CONTINUING INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEKEND.
WITH AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN AND HIGH HUMIDITY THROUGH THE PERIOD,
EXPECT CONTINUED MILD/WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER
70S, WITH LITTLE IF ANY RIDGE-VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLITS. HIGHS
THURSDAY WILL BE TEMPERED SOMEWHAT BY CLOUD COVER AND REDEVELOPING
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, WITH LOWER TO MID 80S EXPECTED.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2026
AT THE ONSET OF THE EXTENDED, TWO SHORTWAVES WILL BE IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY OF ONE ANOTHER, THE FIRST OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA AND
WESTERN KENTUCKY, THE OTHER BEING JUST WEST OVER THE SOUTH
DAKOTA/NEBRASKA AREA. IN ADDITION TO THESE TWO FEATURES, SPLIT FLOW
REMAINS OVER WESTERN CONUS, WITH A TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA, AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
THROUGH SATURDAY, THE TWO SHORTWAVES PHASE INTO A MORE DEFINED
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS.
FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY, WITH A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. WHILE SHOWER
AND STORMS CHANCES REMAIN MONDAY, THEY WILL BE MORE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED COMPARED TO THE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT
ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ECMWF MEAN PWATS, CONTINUE TO SHOW
MODEL OUTPUT FALLING AROUND THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMALS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE SATURDAY WITH PWATS RANGING FROM
1.90-2.10 INCHES. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. IF AN AREA SEES REPEATED ROUNDS OF THESE
STORMS, ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING COULD OCCUR EACH OF THE
DAYS LISTED ABOVE. THE WPC CONTINUES TO HAVE THE AREA IN A SLIGHT
RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, AND A MARGINAL
RISK ON SUNDAY.
BY MONDAY, A STRONG 600-DM HIGH IS MODELED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND CENTRAL PLAINS, WITH THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF IT INFRINGING ON
THE AREA. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE, WITH EXISTING
SCATTERED CHANCES LOOKING GREATEST ACROSS SOUTHERN POTIONS OF THE
CWA. A DEPARTING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG THE
KY/TN BORDER LEADING TO THESES LINGERING CHANCES. THE LONG
FORGOTTEN TROUGH OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST BACK ON FRIDAY WILL
HAVE NAVIGATED AROUND THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL FLATTEN THE
HIGH SOME, ALLOWING FOR HIGHER HEIGHTS OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY. WHILE
THIS USUALLY EQUATES TO MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES, MODEL 850-MB
TEMPERATURES REMAIN SUPPRESSED.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID
80S THROUGH MONDAY, BECOMING MID TO UPPER 80S TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. IN THE EVENINGS TEMPERATURES GENERALLY COOL INTO THE
UPPER 60S.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 918 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WERE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD, GIVING LOCALIZED IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS. AREAS NOT
RECENTLY AFFECTED BY THE PRECIP WERE MAINLY VFR. AN OVERALL
DECREASE IN PRECIP IS FORECAST AS WE MOVE INTO THE NIGHT, WITH
LARGELY VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING. THE EXTENT OF LINGERING CLOUD
COVER IS A BIT UNCERTAIN. CURRENTLY, GENERALIZED MID-UPPER LEVEL
CEILINGS ARE FORECAST DURING THE NIGHT, WHICH WOULD LIMIT FOG
DEVELOPMENT COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. HOWEVER, WITH ENOUGH OF A
LASTING DECREASE IN CLOUDS, FOG COULD BECOME A CONCERN AND BRING
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS. SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
COULD ALSO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND BRING REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY. THIS IS BEING HANDLED BY A PROB30 GROUP, WHICH IS ALSO
COVERING AS A BIT OF A SAFEGUARD FOR CONDITIONS SHOULD FOG
DEVELOP. UNCERTAINTY ALSO ABOUNDS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY
CONCERNING TIMING OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. IT'S LIKELY THAT MOST
PLACES WILL BE AFFECTED AT SOME TIME. HOWEVER, THERE IS SO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXACT TIMING THAT IT HAS BEEN HANDLED WITH
ANOTHER PROB30 GROUP IN THE AFTERNOON.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...HAL
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