392
FXUS63 KJKL 090625 AAA
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
225 AM EDT THU JUL 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES INTO THE WEEKEND.
- HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THIS
WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WITH A THREAT OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING.
- A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR INCREASED FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL
ACROSS THE AREA FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 210 AM EDT THU JUL 9 2026
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH MAINLY JUST
THE INCLUSION OF THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS FOR THE T/TD/SKY GRIDS
ALONG WITH THE LATEST CAMS GUIDANCE FOR POPS AND THUNDER CHANCES
THROUGH DAWN. THESE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD
AND WEB SERVERS ALONG WITH A FRESHENING OF THE SAFS AND ZONES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 703 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2026
HAVE INCORPORATED LATEST RADAR AND MESOSCALE MODEL TRENDS INTO
THE FORECAST, GIVING A MORE NOTABLE DROP OFF IN CONVECTION MIDWAY
THROUGH THE NIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 241 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2026
A MID-LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER THE LOWER OH/TN VALLEY WILL SLOWLY FILL
AND BECOME AN OPEN WAVE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS IT MOVES
UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. WESTERLY FLOW THEN BUILDS IN ITS WAKE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH ANOTHER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AN OVERALL
INCREASING TREND IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS LIKELY AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGH PWS AND
LOWER TO MID 70S DEWPOINTS. A BIT STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW THAN
YESTERDAY MEANS STORM MOTIONS ARE A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN
YESTERDAY, BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING OF HEAVY RAIN STILL
EXISTS, PARTICULARLY IN AREAS WHERE SOILS ARE ALREADY SATURATED FROM
RECENT PREVIOUS HEAVY RAINFALL. THUS, AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD
POTENTIAL REMAINS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL INCREASES THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT, AS ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED ON TOP OF INCREASINGLY WET SOILS. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN AT THE VERY END OF THE
PERIOD TOWARDS DAWN FRIDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF ONE OR MORE MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS. THUS, A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
STARTING AT 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON, CONTINUING INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEKEND.
WITH AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN AND HIGH HUMIDITY THROUGH THE PERIOD,
EXPECT CONTINUED MILD/WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER
70S, WITH LITTLE IF ANY RIDGE-VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLITS. HIGHS
THURSDAY WILL BE TEMPERED SOMEWHAT BY CLOUD COVER AND REDEVELOPING
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, WITH LOWER TO MID 80S EXPECTED.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2026
AT THE ONSET OF THE EXTENDED, TWO SHORTWAVES WILL BE IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY OF ONE ANOTHER, THE FIRST OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA AND
WESTERN KENTUCKY, THE OTHER BEING JUST WEST OVER THE SOUTH
DAKOTA/NEBRASKA AREA. IN ADDITION TO THESE TWO FEATURES, SPLIT FLOW
REMAINS OVER WESTERN CONUS, WITH A TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA, AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
THROUGH SATURDAY, THE TWO SHORTWAVES PHASE INTO A MORE DEFINED
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS.
FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY, WITH A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. WHILE SHOWER
AND STORMS CHANCES REMAIN MONDAY, THEY WILL BE MORE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED COMPARED TO THE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT
ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ECMWF MEAN PWATS, CONTINUE TO SHOW
MODEL OUTPUT FALLING AROUND THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMALS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE SATURDAY WITH PWATS RANGING FROM
1.90-2.10 INCHES. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. IF AN AREA SEES REPEATED ROUNDS OF THESE
STORMS, ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING COULD OCCUR EACH OF THE
DAYS LISTED ABOVE. THE WPC CONTINUES TO HAVE THE AREA IN A SLIGHT
RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, AND A MARGINAL
RISK ON SUNDAY.
BY MONDAY, A STRONG 600-DM HIGH IS MODELED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND CENTRAL PLAINS, WITH THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF IT INFRINGING ON
THE AREA. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE, WITH EXISTING
SCATTERED CHANCES LOOKING GREATEST ACROSS SOUTHERN POTIONS OF THE
CWA. A DEPARTING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG THE
KY/TN BORDER LEADING TO THESES LINGERING CHANCES. THE LONG
FORGOTTEN TROUGH OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST BACK ON FRIDAY WILL
HAVE NAVIGATED AROUND THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL FLATTEN THE
HIGH SOME, ALLOWING FOR HIGHER HEIGHTS OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY. WHILE
THIS USUALLY EQUATES TO MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES, MODEL 850-MB
TEMPERATURES REMAIN SUPPRESSED.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID
80S THROUGH MONDAY, BECOMING MID TO UPPER 80S TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. IN THE EVENINGS TEMPERATURES GENERALLY COOL INTO THE
UPPER 60S.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 AM EDT THU JUL 9 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOTED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD, BUT THE BULK OF EASTERN KENTUCKY
WAS CLEAR OF PCPN AND WERE REPORTING A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS (DUE TO FOG AND LOW CLOUDS). AN OVERALL MINIMUM IN
PRECIP IS EXPECTED AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT, WITH
LARGELY VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL FOG POTENTIALLY SETTLES IN MORE
COMPLETELY. MEANWHILE, THE EXTENT OF THE LINGERING CLOUD COVER IS
A BIT UNCERTAIN. CURRENTLY, GENERALIZED MID-UPPER LEVEL CEILINGS
ARE FORECAST DURING THE NIGHT, WHICH WOULD LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT
COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. HOWEVER, WITH ENOUGH OF A LASTING DECREASE
IN THEM, FOG COULD BECOME A CONCERN AND BRING DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS. SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALSO
DEVELOP THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND BRING REDUCTIONS IN
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY. UNCERTAINTY ALSO ABOUNDS DURING THE DAY
CONCERNING TIMING OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. IT'S LIKELY THAT MOST
PLACES WILL BE AFFECTED AT SOME POINT. HOWEVER, THERE IS SO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXACT TIMING THAT IT HAS BEEN HANDLED WITH
PROB30 GROUPS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OUTSIDE OF ANY STORM,
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...HAL/GREIF
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