294
FXUS63 KJKL 091615
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1215 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES INTO THE WEEKEND.
- HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THIS
WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WITH A THREAT OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING.
- A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR INCREASED FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL
ACROSS THE AREA FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1215 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2026
REFRESHED THE T/TD/SKY GRIDS WITH THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA
FROM AROUND THE REGION. ALSO REGENERATED SAFS TO REMOVE FOG
WORDING FROM THIS MORNING, OTHERWISE, FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 715 AM EDT THU JUL 9 2026
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH MAINLY JUST
THE INCLUSION OF THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS FOR THE T/TD/SKY GRIDS
AND A TWEAKING OF THE POPS THROUGH NOON. THESE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS ALONG WITH A FRESHENING
OF THE ZONES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM EDT THU JUL 9 2026
08Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK BOUNDARY LAID OUT JUST NORTHWEST OF
THE JKL CWA AND THIS IS PROMPTING THE CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS CONVECTIVE MINIMUM INTO DAWN. IN
FACT, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BLOSSOMING JUST NORTHWEST OF
OUR AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHTER AND SCATTERED
ACTIVITY FOUND OVER FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY. IT IS THIS ACTIVITY, AND
THE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT, THAT IS LIKELY KEEPING THE DENSE
FOG FROM BECOMING TOO WIDESPREAD OR EXTENSIVE AND GENERALLY MORE
FLEETING THAN THAT THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS. WHAT IS THE SAME,
THOUGH, IS THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH
BOTH TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS NEARLY THE SAME AT EACH
OBSERVATION POINT - IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S - AMID LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS.
THE MODELS, AND THEIR INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE SUITES, ARE ONLY IN
BROAD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AS THEY ALL HANDLE A KEY CENTRAL PLAINS SHORTWAVE
SLIGHTLY DIFFERENTLY AS IT WORKS EAST TOWARD THE BLUEGRASS STATE
THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER PATTERN STARTS WITH
ONE MID LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING
ALONG WITH SOME MINOR 5H HEIGHT FALLS. THIS FEATURE EXITS TO THE
EAST THIS EVENING WHILE FAIRLY FAST NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW
REMAINS IN PLACE INTO FRIDAY. THE NEXT SUBSTANTIVE WAVE UP IN THIS
PATTERN IS THAT ILL MODELED ONE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THAT
ECMWF BARELY INDICATES WHILE THE GFS AND NAM (SLOWEST) ARE MORE
DISTINCTIVE WITH IT. THE WEAKNESS OF THIS FEATURE IN THE ECMWF
ALLOWS MORE OF ITS ENERGY TO WORK INTO KENTUCKY EARLY ON FRIDAY
WHILE THE OTHER MODELS KEEP IT MORE CONTAINED AND ARRIVING LATER
IN THE DAY. EITHER WAY, THIS PATTERN LOCALLY WILL SUPPORT
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS PART OF THE STATE WELL INTO THE
WEEKEND. DESPITE THE QUESTIONABLE AGREEMENT AMONG THE THE FINER
FATUITY'S IN THE MODELS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY, THE NBM WAS STILL
USED AS THE STARTING POINT FOR THE GRIDS AS LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN
SENSIBLE WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THESE MODEL DISCREPANCIES.
DID MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO POPS BY ADDING IN THE CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE FOR CONVECTIVE TIMING AND COVERAGE FROM THE LATEST CAM
RUN'S CONSENSUS. THESE RESULTS WERE AGAIN SMOOTHED AND FITTED TO
A DIURNAL CURVE - THOUGH WITH MORE INFLUENCE FROM MID AND UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS - PROBABLY EXTENDING THE CONVECTION DEEPER INTO
THE NIGHT.
SENSIBLE WEATHER FEATURES TYPICAL WET SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS STUCK
ON REPEAT AS CONDITIONS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES AND HUMID WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON/
EVENING CONVECTION EXPECTED. THE INFLUENCE OF WAVES AT MID-LEVEL
WORKING INTO OR NEAR THE JKL CWA - PARTICULARLY THIS AFTERNOON
AND BEYOND - WILL ENHANCE THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT AND SMALL
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS - MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA.
SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND HIGH PWS (AT TIMES OVER 2 INCHES) IN PLACE
MEANS A HEIGHTENED CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING - ESPECIALLY FOR
PLACES THAT SEE TRAINING CELLS - CUMULATIVE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED HIGH WATER ISSUES ANTICIPATED. FOR THIS
REASON A FLOOD WATCH FOR FLASH FLOODING IS IN EFFECT FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MODERATED
BY THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT SUPPRESSING HIGHS IN THE AFTERNOON
AND MAKING FOR MILD LOWS AT NIGHT.
THE MAIN ADJUSTMENTS TO THE NBM STARTING POINT WERE TO INCLUDE
MORE HIGH RESOLUTION CAMS DETAILS (SMOOTHED) INTO THE POPS AND
THUNDER POTENTIAL GRIDS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT TO THE AIR MEANT THERE WERE LITTLE OPPORTUNITY TO IMPROVE
TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS FROM THE NBM THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EDT THU JUL 9 2026
THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE GRIDS FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST THIS MORNING WAS PRIMARILY TO ADJUST SPOT SPECIFIC MAX
AND MIN TEMPS AT SEVERAL POINTS THOUGH THE AREA. FASTER FLOW AT
MID LEVELS AND GENERAL TROUGHING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AND LIKELY SUPPORT AN ENHANCED THREAT
FOR HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING - PARTICULARLY FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY - BECOMING MORE OF A RISK WITH TIME.
THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
AT THE ONSET OF THE EXTENDED, TWO SHORTWAVES WILL BE IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY OF ONE ANOTHER, THE FIRST OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA AND
WESTERN KENTUCKY, THE OTHER BEING JUST WEST OVER THE SOUTH
DAKOTA/NEBRASKA AREA. IN ADDITION TO THESE TWO FEATURES, SPLIT FLOW
REMAINS OVER WESTERN CONUS, WITH A TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA, AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
THROUGH SATURDAY, THE TWO SHORTWAVES PHASE INTO A MORE DEFINED
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS.
FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY, WITH A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. WHILE SHOWER
AND STORMS CHANCES REMAIN MONDAY, THEY WILL BE MORE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED COMPARED TO THE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT
ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ECMWF MEAN PWATS, CONTINUE TO SHOW
MODEL OUTPUT FALLING AROUND THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMALS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE SATURDAY WITH PWATS RANGING FROM
1.90-2.10 INCHES. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. IF AN AREA SEES REPEATED ROUNDS OF THESE
STORMS, ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING COULD OCCUR EACH OF THE
DAYS LISTED ABOVE. THE WPC CONTINUES TO HAVE THE AREA IN A SLIGHT
RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, AND A MARGINAL
RISK ON SUNDAY.
BY MONDAY, A STRONG 600-DM HIGH IS MODELED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND CENTRAL PLAINS, WITH THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF IT INFRINGING ON
THE AREA. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE, WITH EXISTING
SCATTERED CHANCES LOOKING GREATEST ACROSS SOUTHERN POTIONS OF THE
CWA. A DEPARTING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG THE
KY/TN BORDER LEADING TO THESES LINGERING CHANCES. THE LONG
FORGOTTEN TROUGH OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST BACK ON FRIDAY WILL
HAVE NAVIGATED AROUND THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL FLATTEN THE
HIGH SOME, ALLOWING FOR HIGHER HEIGHTS OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY. WHILE
THIS USUALLY EQUATES TO MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES, MODEL 850-MB
TEMPERATURES REMAIN SUPPRESSED.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID
80S THROUGH MONDAY, BECOMING MID TO UPPER 80S TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. IN THE EVENINGS TEMPERATURES GENERALLY COOL INTO THE
UPPER 60S.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT THU JUL 9 2026
THE WORST OF THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE CONFINED TO JUST A COUPLE
OF TAF TERMINALS AT 12Z ISSUANCE TIME. THEN, UNCERTAINTY ABOUNDS
DURING THE DAY CONCERNING TIMING OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. IT'S
LIKELY THAT MOST PLACES WILL BE AFFECTED AT SOME POINT. HOWEVER,
THERE IS SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXACT TIMING THAT IT HAS
BEEN HANDLED WITH PROB30 GROUPS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
POOR CONDITIONS VIA LOW VIS AND CIGS. OUTSIDE OF ANY STORM, WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-
068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
UPDATE...GINNICK
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...GINNICK/GREIF
AVIATION...GREIF
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