680
FXUS63 KJKL 100605 AAA
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
205 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE AT TIMES INTO THE WEEKEND.
- HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THIS
WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY TODAY AND SATURDAY, WITH A THREAT OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING.
- A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR INCREASED FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2026
ASIDE FROM A TOUCH UP TO THE NEAR TERM POPS AND TIMING THE FOG, NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH MAINLY JUST THE
INCLUSION OF THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS FOR THE T/TD/SKY GRIDS.
THESE ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS
ALONG WITH A FRESHENING OF THE HWO, SAFS, AND ZONES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 911 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2026
PRECIP HAS DIED OUT FOR THE TIME BEING. HOWEVER,
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN OVER CENTRAL AND
WESTERN KY AND SHOULD MAKE THEIR MOVE IN OUR DIRECTION DURING THE
NIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED THE POP FOR THE CURRENT LULL, BUT ALLOWED FOR
AN INCREASE FROM THE WEST WITH TIME.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2026
AT 19Z, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
WORK ACROSS THE AREA, WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN OCCURRING WITHIN
THEM. THESE POP-UP SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS, DISIPATING WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING NEAR OR
AROUND SUNSET. TEMPERATURES AROUND THE AREA ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID
80S WHERE CONVECTION HASN'T TAMPERED WITH THE AIR, OTHERWISE AREAS
THAT HAVE SEEN RAIN/STORMS SIT IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. PATCHY
VALLEY FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING BEFORE MIXING OUT FRIDAY
MORNING.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS JUST EAST OF THE STATE, WITH A
SHORTWAVE OVER THE OZARKS EMBEDDED WITHIN A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH.
A SURFACE COLD FRONT ALSO EXTENDS ACROSS WESTERN POTIONS OF THE OHIO
VALLEY, EXTENDING BACK TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THE EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO APPROACH KENTUCKY THROUGH THIS EVENING, 500-
MB HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL IN ADVANCE OF IT. AFTER A LULL IN
SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY THIS EVENING, CHANCES INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY.
AS HIGH PRESSURE SINKS SOUTH OF THE AREA, BROAD FLOW AROUND IT WILL
CONTINUE TRANSPORTING MOISTURE RICH AIR FROM SOUTHWEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. DURING THE DAY FRIDAY, MODEL PWATS INCREASE ACROSS
THE AREA, CLOSE TO IF NOT EXCEEDING 2 INCHES IN PLACES. THESE VALUES
FALL WITHIN THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS WHEN
LOOKING AT ECMWF MEAN PWATS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS
ENVIRONMENT HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS, AND LOCALLY
HEAVY OR TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WHICH COULD LEAD TO INSTANCES OF FLASH
FLOODING. THE WPC CONTINUES TO HAVE THE AREA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EXCEEDING LOCAL FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE. THE
PROBABILITY OF SEEING ENOUGH RAINFALL TO EXCEED FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
REMAINS ACROSS THE UPPER CUMBERLAND RIVER BASIN (25% CHANCE).
LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING HIGH PRESSURE OVER SW CONUS WILL
BUILD IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. WITH THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE
DEVELOPING, THE POSITIVELY SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROPAGATE
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE KY-TN AREAS OF THE OHIO VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S BEFORE
COOLING INTO THE UPPER 60S FRIDAY EVENING.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2026
THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A WESTERLY MID-LEVEL JET STREAM ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY, INCLUDING EASTERN KENTUCKY, AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL
LOW/TROUGH AND STACKED SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI AND
WESTERN ILLINOIS, WITH THIS FEATURE ONLY MOVING TO THE LOWER OHIO
RIVER VALLEY BY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE CIRCULATION BECOMES DETACHED
FROM THE UPPER FLOW AND BECOMES TRAPPED BY A MASSIVE UPPER HIGH THAT
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN CONUS LATE THIS WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK. WITH CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION AND A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA, A RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT.
MODELS STRENGTHEN THIS UPPER HIGH TO ~602-DM CENTERED SOMEWHERE OVER
THE MO VALLEY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE IT BEGINS TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MOST MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT IN SUPPRESSING THE REMNANTS OF THE TRAPPED MID-LEVEL LOW
AND ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION SOUTHWARD WITH TIME, WITH A GRADUAL
DIMINISHING OF POPS AND SKY COVER FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FROM THE
SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS DRIER
NORTHEASTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ADVECTS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. A
MARGINAL FLASH FLOOD THREAT MAY PERSIST ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO SUNDAY,
WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE MAY LINGER ALONG WITH
RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW ALOFT SUPPORTING SLOW STORM MOTIONS.
THE GRADUAL DRYING AND CLEARING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL ALSO
SUPPORT AN INCREASING TREND FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD, BUT WITH HIGHS STILL WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD, WITH LOWS IN THE 60S EACH
MORNING.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 205 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2026
STILL VFR CONDITIONS WERE REPORTED AT ALL THE TAF SITES FOR THE
06Z ISSUANCE, HOWEVER CHANGE IS AFOOT. THE LATEST ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABOUT TO IMPINGE ON THE WESTERN SITES AND
EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS - THOUGH A
WEAKENING TREND IS NOTED. THE COVERAGE OF PRECIP SHOULD PEAK OVER
THE JKL FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH IFR
CONDITIONS PROBABLE AT TIMES. AFTER A BRIEF LULL, MORE SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS AREA EXPECTED FROM AROUND MID DAY INTO THE
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH, CONFIDENCE DROPS OFF AS TO HOW THAT NEXT
ROUND EVOLVES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT LESS THAN 10
KTS OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-
068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GINNICK
LONG TERM...CMC
AVIATION...HAL/GREIF
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