146
FXUS63 KJKL 101209
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
809 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE AT TIMES INTO THE WEEKEND.
- HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THIS
WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY TODAY AND SATURDAY, WITH A THREAT OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING.
- A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR INCREASED FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 758 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2026
FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK SO FAR THIS MORNING. LOADED IN THE
LATEST OBSERVATIONS FOR TEMPS, DEW POINTS, AND WINDS, TO MAKE
SURE THE NEAR TERM GRIDS WERE IN LINE WITH THE CURRENT CONDITIONS.
THIS ONLY RESULTED IN MINOR CHANGES. ALL UPDATES HAVE BEEN
PUBLISHED AND SENT TO NDFD/WEB.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2026
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS EASTERN KENTUCKY IN THE LARGE WARM AND
HUMID SECTOR OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
THIS HAS HELPED TO SUSTAIN THE LATEST ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
AS THEY HAVE MOVED IN AND ARE NOW DISSIPATING OVER THE JKL CWA.
THE THICK CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CONVECTION DID OVERTAKE THE
AREA AND HAS BEEN ABLE TO TO CLEAR OUT MUCH OF THE PATCHY DENSE
FOG THAT PLAGUED THE VALLEYS EARLIER IN THE NIGHT FOR EASTERN
PARTS OF THE CWA. AGAIN THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER HAVE MADE FOR BOTH TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS TO BE NEARLY
THE SAME AT EACH OBSERVATION POINT - MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 70S
- AMID LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
THE MODELS, AND THEIR INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE SUITES, ARE COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AS THEY NOW HANDLE A KEY CENTRAL PLAINS SHORTWAVE
SIMILARLY WHILE IT APPROACHES KENTUCKY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE
UPPER PATTERN STARTS WITH SLIGHT NORTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
REGION AND SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ROLLING EAST EMBEDDED WITH WITHIN
IT. AN INITIAL ONE SLIDES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING WHILE
THE MAIN ONE BUILDS TO THE WEST AND PIECES OF IT MOVE OVER
KENTUCKY ON SATURDAY - SLOWING AS IT DOES SO. THIS KEEPS AMPLE
ENERGY OVER THE JKL CWA WELL INTO THAT EVENING ALONG WITH SOME 5H
HEIGHT FALLS. CONFIDENCE IN THE NBM SOLUTION HAS INCREASED WITH
THE BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT SO THAT ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE
NEEDED TO THE INITIALIZATION. ACCORDINGLY, THE BULK OF THESE
CONSISTED OF TWEAKS TO POPS VIA THE ADDITION OF THE GUIDANCE FOR
CONVECTIVE TIMING AND COVERAGE FROM THE LATEST CAM RUN'S
CONSENSUS. THESE RESULTS WERE AGAIN SMOOTHED AND LOOSELY FITTED
TO A DIURNAL CURVE - THOUGH WITH INFLUENCE FROM MID AND UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS LARGELY RETAINED.
SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE AREA FEATURES A MODE OF WET SUMMERTIME
CONDITIONS REPEATING THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NEAR NORMAL
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WHILE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION
MOVE ON THROUGH. THE INFLUENCE OF WAVES AT MID-LEVEL WORKING INTO
OR NEAR THE JKL CWA - PARTICULARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT -
WILL ENHANCE THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT AND PROVIDE A SMALL POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE STORMS - MAINLY FOR OUR SOUTH AND WEST. SLOW STORM
MOTIONS, AND HIGH PWS (AT TIMES OVER 2 INCHES) IN PLACE, MEAN A
HEIGHTENED CONCERN FOR FLOODING - ESPECIALLY FOR PLACES THAT SEE
TRAINING CELLS - CUMULATIVE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED HIGH WATER ISSUES ANTICIPATED. FOR THIS REASON, A FLOOD
WATCH FOR FLASH FLOODING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MODERATED BY THE HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT SUPPRESSING HIGHS IN THE AFTERNOON AND MAKING FOR MILD
LOWS AT NIGHT WITH CLOUDS AND PCPN LIMITING THE DENSE FOG
POTENTIAL.
THE MAIN ADJUSTMENTS TO THE NBM STARTING POINT WERE TO INCLUDE
MORE HIGH RESOLUTION CAMS DETAILS (SMOOTHED) INTO THE POPS AND
THUNDER POTENTIAL GRIDS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT TO THE AIR MEANT THERE WERE LITTLE OPPORTUNITY TO IMPROVE
TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS FROM THE NBM THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2026
AT THE ONSET OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD, A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW
WILL BE LOCATED NEAR THE IL/KY BORDER, WITH GENERAL UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS AND MID ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE,
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL SIT OVER THE MOUNTAIN WEST. THIS
LOW WILL GENERALLY MEANDER TO THE SOUTH AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
THIS WESTERN RIDGING, EVENTUALLY BECOMING CUT OFF FROM BROADER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING THAT DEPARTS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS BY
MONDAY. THIS CUTOFF LOW WILL INTRODUCE SOME ADDITIONAL UNCERTAINTY
INTO THE LONG TERM FORECAST; HOWEVER, BY SUNDAY, IT APPEARS
LIKELY THAT THE SOUTHWARD TRANSLATION OF THIS SYSTEM WILL FINALLY
BRING THE TROUBLESOME BOUNDARY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT. A MOIST AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN PLACE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT, AND WITH WEAKENING FLOW ALOFT, STORM MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO BE SLOW. THESE FACTORS, IN ADDITION TO WET ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS, INDICATE THAT ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
AGAIN ON SUNDAY, PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGHER. ACCORDINGLY, THE
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS MAINTAINED A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1/4)
RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THANKFULLY,
ANY FLASH FLOODING RISK SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE THAN IN
DAYS PRIOR, AND RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DECLINE OVERNIGHT WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
LOOKING AHEAD INTO NEXT WEEK, THERE IS GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT
THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL MIGRATE TO THE EAST; ACCORDINGLY,
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE KENTUCKYS WEATHER BY THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER, THE PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOWS
CONSIDERABLY MORE UNCERTAINTY, OWING TO MODEL DIFFERENCES
REGARDING THE PROGRESSION OF THE CUTOFF LOW. SOME GUIDANCE KEEPS
THIS LOW MEANDERING THROUGH KY/TN UNTIL MIDWEEK, ALLOWING FOR
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED CONVECTION (PARTICULARLY IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES). ALTERNATIVELY, SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS LOW COULD
TRANSLATE SOUTH QUICKLY, ALLOWING FOR DRIER WEATHER TO RETURN
EARLIER IN THE WEEK. FOR NOW, CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN ANY GIVEN
OUTCOME, BUT THE GENERAL TREND IS THAT RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO
DIMINISH BY MIDWEEK AT THE LATEST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.
TEMPERATURES ALSO LOOK TO TREND WARMER BY MIDWEEK.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 809 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2026
A VARIATION OF MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES, WITH LOWEST CIGS IN THE NORTHERN TAF SITES. HOWEVER, EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE AS THE NEXT ROUND OF RAINFALL MOVES
TOWARDS EASTERN KY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE COVERAGE OF
PRECIP SHOULD PEAK OVER THE JKL FORECAST AREA FROM MID-MORNING
UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS PROBABLE AT
TIMES. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AREA EXPECTED FROM THE
AFTERNOON AND WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE DROPS
OFF AS TO HOW THESE CONTINUED SHOWERS/STORMS EVOLVE AND WHERE THEY
WILL SET UP. TAFS WILL LIKELY FLUCTUATE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD FOR
VISIBILITY AND CIGS DEPENDING ON WHEN STORMS MOVE THROUGH, SO
WILL NEED TO UPDATE ACCORDINGLY. OVERALL, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AT LESS THAN 10 KTS OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-
068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...FAGAN
AVIATION...JMW
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