385
FXUS63 KJKL 101832
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
232 PM EDT FRI JUL 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE AT TIMES INTO THE WEEKEND.
- HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY
THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH A THREAT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FLASH
FLOODING.
- A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR INCREASED FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1118 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2026
INCORPORATED THE LATEST MODEL DATA AND LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA
INTO THE FORECAST, WHICH REMAINS ON TRACK. NO MAJOR CHANGES
OCCURRED. ALL UPDATES HAVE BEEN PUBLISHED AND SENT TO NDFD/WEB.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 758 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2026
FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK SO FAR THIS MORNING. LOADED IN THE
LATEST OBSERVATIONS FOR TEMPS, DEW POINTS, AND WINDS, TO MAKE
SURE THE NEAR TERM GRIDS WERE IN LINE WITH THE CURRENT CONDITIONS.
THIS ONLY RESULTED IN MINOR CHANGES. ALL UPDATES HAVE BEEN
PUBLISHED AND SENT TO NDFD/WEB.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2026
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS EASTERN KENTUCKY IN THE LARGE WARM AND
HUMID SECTOR OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
THIS HAS HELPED TO SUSTAIN THE LATEST ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
AS THEY HAVE MOVED IN AND ARE NOW DISSIPATING OVER THE JKL CWA.
THE THICK CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CONVECTION DID OVERTAKE THE
AREA AND HAS BEEN ABLE TO TO CLEAR OUT MUCH OF THE PATCHY DENSE
FOG THAT PLAGUED THE VALLEYS EARLIER IN THE NIGHT FOR EASTERN
PARTS OF THE CWA. AGAIN THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER HAVE MADE FOR BOTH TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS TO BE NEARLY
THE SAME AT EACH OBSERVATION POINT - MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 70S
- AMID LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
THE MODELS, AND THEIR INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE SUITES, ARE COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AS THEY NOW HANDLE A KEY CENTRAL PLAINS SHORTWAVE
SIMILARLY WHILE IT APPROACHES KENTUCKY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE
UPPER PATTERN STARTS WITH SLIGHT NORTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
REGION AND SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ROLLING EAST EMBEDDED WITH WITHIN
IT. AN INITIAL ONE SLIDES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING WHILE
THE MAIN ONE BUILDS TO THE WEST AND PIECES OF IT MOVE OVER
KENTUCKY ON SATURDAY - SLOWING AS IT DOES SO. THIS KEEPS AMPLE
ENERGY OVER THE JKL CWA WELL INTO THAT EVENING ALONG WITH SOME 5H
HEIGHT FALLS. CONFIDENCE IN THE NBM SOLUTION HAS INCREASED WITH
THE BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT SO THAT ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE
NEEDED TO THE INITIALIZATION. ACCORDINGLY, THE BULK OF THESE
CONSISTED OF TWEAKS TO POPS VIA THE ADDITION OF THE GUIDANCE FOR
CONVECTIVE TIMING AND COVERAGE FROM THE LATEST CAM RUN'S
CONSENSUS. THESE RESULTS WERE AGAIN SMOOTHED AND LOOSELY FITTED
TO A DIURNAL CURVE - THOUGH WITH INFLUENCE FROM MID AND UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS LARGELY RETAINED.
SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE AREA FEATURES A MODE OF WET SUMMERTIME
CONDITIONS REPEATING THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NEAR NORMAL
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WHILE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION
MOVE ON THROUGH. THE INFLUENCE OF WAVES AT MID-LEVEL WORKING INTO
OR NEAR THE JKL CWA - PARTICULARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT -
WILL ENHANCE THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT AND PROVIDE A SMALL POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE STORMS - MAINLY FOR OUR SOUTH AND WEST. SLOW STORM
MOTIONS, AND HIGH PWS (AT TIMES OVER 2 INCHES) IN PLACE, MEAN A
HEIGHTENED CONCERN FOR FLOODING - ESPECIALLY FOR PLACES THAT SEE
TRAINING CELLS - CUMULATIVE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED HIGH WATER ISSUES ANTICIPATED. FOR THIS REASON, A FLOOD
WATCH FOR FLASH FLOODING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MODERATED BY THE HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT SUPPRESSING HIGHS IN THE AFTERNOON AND MAKING FOR MILD
LOWS AT NIGHT WITH CLOUDS AND PCPN LIMITING THE DENSE FOG
POTENTIAL.
THE MAIN ADJUSTMENTS TO THE NBM STARTING POINT WERE TO INCLUDE
MORE HIGH RESOLUTION CAMS DETAILS (SMOOTHED) INTO THE POPS AND
THUNDER POTENTIAL GRIDS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT TO THE AIR MEANT THERE WERE LITTLE OPPORTUNITY TO IMPROVE
TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS FROM THE NBM THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM EDT FRI JUL 10 2026
ATTENTION IN THE LONG-TERM PERIOD WILL FOCUS ON AN EXPANSIVE UPPER
HIGH ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS AND A CUT-OFF LOW SEPARATED FROM
THE MID-LATITUDE JET STREAM BY THIS HIGH, WHICH WILL MEANDER NEAR
THE MID-SOUTH AND LOWER TN VALLEY REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE
SLOWLY RETROGRADING WESTWARD ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE ~600-DM MID-
LEVEL HIGH TO THE NORTH TOWARDS MIDWEEK. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES MID
TO LATE NEXT WEEK IN THE STRENGTH AND ORIENTATION OF THIS HIGH, AND
WHETHER THE CUT-OFF LOW CAN FIND A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO MOVE
BACK NORTH AND/OR EAST WITH TIME, WHICH WILL PLAY A ROLE IN SKY
COVER AND POPS FOR OUR AREA.
THE FORECAST STARTS SUNDAY WITH THE AREA STILL LIKELY WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL LOW, WITH A SURFACE FRONT ALONG
OR NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR MOVING WEST AND NORTHWEST
WITH TIME THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH A HUMID AIR MASS REMAINING IN
PLACE, EXPECT CONTINUED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND A CONTINUED ISOLATED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT FOR MOST OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 64.
PWS AND THUS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TREND LOWER WITH
TIME MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS LOW-LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND
RESULTING DOWNSLOPE DRYING INCREASES, WITH THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM RETROGRADING ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH REGION. THUS, POPS TREND
SHARPLY LOWER FROM MONDAY TO TUESDAY. A MODEST INCREASE IN POPS IS
THEN SUGGESTED BY THE NBM MID TO LATE WEEK, MAINLY IN THE FORM OF
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. POPS
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CUT-
OFF HIGH AND TRAPPED MID-LEVEL LOW AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE RETURN
AND INSTABILITY EXISTS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WITHIN A HUMID, HIGH-PW
ENVIRONMENT WILL START IN THE LOWER 80S SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, BUT WILL
TREND WARMER THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE AREA COMES INCREASINGLY UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER RIDGING AND HUMIDITY LEVELS MODERATE WITH
LOWER POPS. MORNING LOWS WILL GENERALLY NOT CHANGE MUCH, BUT WILL
LIKELY BE LOWEST TUESDAY MORNING (MID-60S WITH SOME POSSIBLY COOLER
VALLEYS) WHEN HUMIDITY LEVELS OVERALL WILL BE AT THEIR LOWEST LEVEL
OF THE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT FRI JUL 10 2026
TO THIS POINT, THE EXPECTED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAS BEEN A LITTLE
UNDERWHELMING. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE BACK HALF OF THE MCV
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY NOW, EXPECTED TO IMPACT KJKL OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS, FOLLOWED BY KSJS AFTER. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
MCV HAS LED TO SOME DRYING CONDITIONS FURTHER WEST. AS SUCH
SHOWERS WERE TAKEN OUT OF THE KSME, KLOZ, KIOB AND KSYM TAFS AT
LEAST THE PREVAILING. LEFT THE EXISTING PROB30S IN THE TAFS AS
SOMETHING COULD DEVELOPMENT, BUT CURRENT CONDITIONS DON'T REFLECT
A VIS REDUCTION. CEILINGS REMAIN LOW IN MVFR AND OCCASIONALLY IFR
CATEGORIES. ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT LEADING TO THE BUSY NATURE OF THE
TAFS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-
068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
UPDATE...GINNICK
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...CMC
AVIATION...GINNICK
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