326
FXUS63 KJKL 110022
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
822 PM EDT FRI JUL 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE AT TIMES INTO THE WEEKEND.
- HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY
THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH A THREAT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FLASH
FLOODING.
- A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR INCREASED FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 544 PM EDT FRI JUL 10 2026
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT IS CURRENTLY EXITING THE JKL
FORECAST AREA TO THE EAST, ALONG WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SHOWERS.
LITTLE IS GOING ON IN ITS WAKE, WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIP HAVING
PREVENTED SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION DURING THE DAY AND PEAK
HEATING HAVING PASSED. IN LIGHT OF THAT, HAVE TAKEN THE CUE FROM
RECENT MODEL RUNS AND REDUCED THE POP GOING INTO THIS EVENING.
LATEST RUNS SUGGEST RENEWED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN
OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES, AND HAVE SKEWED THE FORECAST THAT
DIRECTION.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT FRI JUL 10 2026
AT 1830Z, THE REMNANTS OF AN MCV CAN BE SEEN AROUND JACKSON,
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AS IT HEADS EAST. SUBSIDENCE TO THE WEST OF
THE MCV PASSAGE HAS SEEMINGLY LIMITED NEW STORM GROWTH FOR THE TIME
BEING. OVERALL THE EXPECTED RAINFALL TO THIS POINT HAS BEEN
UNDERWHELMING. THAT SAID, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
LOOKING FURTHER AT CURRENT CONDITIONS, TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RANGE
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S. HEADING INTO THIS EVENING TEMPERATURES
COOL INTO THE UPPER 60S. AREAS OF PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP IN PLACES
THAT AREN'T RAINING, ESPECIALLY IN FAVORED RIVER VALLEY LOCATIONS.
A SHORTWAVE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL DIG SOUTHEAST INTO
OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. THIS OCCURS IN PART DUE TO THE
MONSTER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED BUILD OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. AS IT PERTAINS TO EASTERN KENTUCKY, ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT LOCATE ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA, OHIO, AND NORTHERN
KENTUCKY. PWATS WILL REMAIN ANYWHERE FROM 1.75 TO 2.10 INCHES, HIGH
ENOUGH TO FALL WITHIN THE 90 PERCENTILE FOR MEAN PRECIPITABLE WATER
WHEN COMPARED TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS. MOST OF THE AREA HAS SEEN
RAINFALL OVER THE LAST WEEK WHICH HAS SOFTENED SOILS. REPEATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE THE CHANCE TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS OR TORRENTIAL RAIN IN SHORT ORDER. AS SUCH THE WPC HAS
MAINTAINED A SLIGHT RISK ERO (EXCESSIVE RAIN OUTLOOK) FOR ALL OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH A SLIGHTLY GREATER CHANCE OF
EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IN THE UPPER CUMBERLAND RIVER BASIN.
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL LIKELY WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S BEFORE
DROPPING IN THE UPPER 60S AT NIGHT. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG
WITH THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE HAL ROGERS/
KENTUCKY HIGHWAY 80 CORRIDOR BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM EDT FRI JUL 10 2026
ATTENTION IN THE LONG-TERM PERIOD WILL FOCUS ON AN EXPANSIVE UPPER
HIGH ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS AND A CUT-OFF LOW SEPARATED FROM
THE MID-LATITUDE JET STREAM BY THIS HIGH, WHICH WILL MEANDER NEAR
THE MID-SOUTH AND LOWER TN VALLEY REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE
SLOWLY RETROGRADING WESTWARD ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE ~600-DM MID-
LEVEL HIGH TO THE NORTH TOWARDS MIDWEEK. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES MID
TO LATE NEXT WEEK IN THE STRENGTH AND ORIENTATION OF THIS HIGH, AND
WHETHER THE CUT-OFF LOW CAN FIND A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO MOVE
BACK NORTH AND/OR EAST WITH TIME, WHICH WILL PLAY A ROLE IN SKY
COVER AND POPS FOR OUR AREA.
THE FORECAST STARTS SUNDAY WITH THE AREA STILL LIKELY WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL LOW, WITH A SURFACE FRONT ALONG
OR NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR MOVING WEST AND NORTHWEST
WITH TIME THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH A HUMID AIR MASS REMAINING IN
PLACE, EXPECT CONTINUED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND A CONTINUED ISOLATED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT FOR MOST OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 64.
PWS AND THUS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TREND LOWER WITH
TIME MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS LOW-LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND
RESULTING DOWNSLOPE DRYING INCREASES, WITH THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM RETROGRADING ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH REGION. THUS, POPS TREND
SHARPLY LOWER FROM MONDAY TO TUESDAY. A MODEST INCREASE IN POPS IS
THEN SUGGESTED BY THE NBM MID TO LATE WEEK, MAINLY IN THE FORM OF
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. POPS
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CUT-
OFF HIGH AND TRAPPED MID-LEVEL LOW AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE RETURN
AND INSTABILITY EXISTS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WITHIN A HUMID, HIGH-PW
ENVIRONMENT WILL START IN THE LOWER 80S SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, BUT WILL
TREND WARMER THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE AREA COMES INCREASINGLY UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER RIDGING AND HUMIDITY LEVELS MODERATE WITH
LOWER POPS. MORNING LOWS WILL GENERALLY NOT CHANGE MUCH, BUT WILL
LIKELY BE LOWEST TUESDAY MORNING (MID-60S WITH SOME POSSIBLY COOLER
VALLEYS) WHEN HUMIDITY LEVELS OVERALL WILL BE AT THEIR LOWEST LEVEL
OF THE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 822 PM EDT FRI JUL 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WERE REPORTED ACROSS THE JKL FORECAST AREA AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD, WITH PRECIP HAVING ENDED. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
CARRY WELL INTO THE NIGHT. WON'T RULE OUT SOME VALLEY FOG, BUT IT
SHOULD BE LESS PREVALENT THAN ON SOME RECENT NIGHT DUE TO LESS
ANTECEDENT PRECIP, AND IT'S NOT BEEN INCLUDED IN TAFS. HOWEVER,
MESOSCALE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN
TO SHOW UP FROM THE WEST TOWARD DAWN. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ABOUT
HOW THIS UNFOLDS, BUT TEMPO GROUPS WITH IFR CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN
USED IN TAFS. THERE IS EVEN MORE UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING THE
ATMOSPHERE'S ABILITY TO WARM AND DESTABILIZE IN THE WAKE OF THE
PRECIP DURING THE DAY SATURDAY, AND A PROB30 GROUP FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WAS USED IN TAFS IN THE AFTERNOON.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-
068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...GINNICK
LONG TERM...CMC
AVIATION...HAL
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