804
FXUS63 KJKL 111059
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
659 AM EDT SAT JUL 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE AT TIMES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
- HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, WITH A
THREAT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING.
- A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR INCREASED FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 659 AM EDT SAT JUL 11 2026
THE FIRST WAVE OF RAIN, THE REMNANTS OF AN MCS THAT STARTED OFF IN
ILLINOIS, HAS MADE IT TO EASTERN KENTUCKY. UPDATED POPS/WEATHER A
COUPLE OF TIMES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE RADAR TRENDS SINCE THE SYSTEM
WAS MOVING MUCH FASTER THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED. UNFORTUNATELY
NONE OF THE CAMS ARE PICKING UP ON THIS RAINFALL PERFECTLY, THOUGH
THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST INITIALIZATION OF ALL OF THEM.
ALSO UPDATED POPS THROUGHOUT THE DAY USING THE HRRR AS THE
STARTING POINT, BUT EXPECT THAT IT WILL STILL NEED UPDATING
MULTIPLE TIMES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WE HAVE BEEN FORTUNATE THAT THE
STORMS WEAKENED AS IT THEY MOVED EAST, SO WE HAVEN'T HAD AS MUCH
RAIN AS THEY DID IN CENTRAL KY, AND NOTHING ABOVE AN SPS FOR
STORMS THUS FAR. THAT BEING SAID, THERE ARE SOME AREAS,
SPECIFICALLY ALONG THE TN BORDER AND IN OUR NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA, THAT HAVE RECEIVED A PRETTY GOOD AMOUNT OF RAINFALL. THIS
WILL PRIME SOILS HEADING INTO THE DAY, MAKING IT POTENTIALLY MORE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING.
IN ADDITION TO THE POPS/WEATHER, ALSO LOADED IN THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS TO MAKE SURE THAT THE NEAR TERM GRIDS WERE ON TRACK
WITH THE CURRENT CONDITIONS. THIS ONLY RESULTED IN SOME MINOR
CHANGES. ALL UPDATES HAVE BEEN PUBLISHED AND SENT TO NDFD/WEB.
THANKFULLY, DESPITE THE CHANGES OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS, THE
SAF/RADIO SHOULD STILL BE OKAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT SAT JUL 11 2026
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IN PLACE FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ALL
THE WAY EAST THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH AND OFF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.
MEANWHILE, KENTUCKY SITS IN GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW WITH A UPPER LEVEL
LOW IN PLACE JUST TO OUR NW, ACROSS THE MID-MISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THE
SURFACE, THERE IS A CORRESPONDING SURFACE LOW, FROM WHICH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDS EASTWARD AND SOUTHWESTWARD. THE WEST-EAST ORIENTED
SECTION OF THE BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER. THE PROBLEM IS THAT DUE TO THE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA,
AND THE STRONG RIDGING TO OUR SOUTH, THIS WEST-EAST ORIENTED
BOUNDARY HAS VERY LITTLE FORCING TO PUSH IT EITHER NORTHWARD OR
SOUTHWARD. IT SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
FINALLY BY TONIGHT, THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN
AND START TO DROP SOUTH, ALLOWING THE BOUNDARY TO ALSO PUSH
SOUTHWARD AS A COLD FRONT INTO KENTUCKY. AGAIN, THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM STALLS ACROSS THE STATE FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING,
WHICH WILL KEEP THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARBY. IT WON'T BE UNTIL
MONDAY AFTERNOON THAT THE RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH FINALLY BREAKS DOWN
ENOUGH FOR SOME SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE LOW, AND FOR THE SYSTEM
TO BEGIN EXITING THE COMMONWEALTH.
SO WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR EXPECTED WEATHER ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH
OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS? BEING ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THIS STATIONARY
BOUNDARY WILL PUT KENTUCKY IN THE WARM, MOIST, AND UNSTABLE SECTOR.
VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT BUT GENERALLY OUT OF
THE SW IN THE LOW LEVELS. THIS IS THE PERFECT SET UP TO SPAWN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FURTHERMORE, A MCS THAT DEVELOPED IN
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS HAS PUSHED IT'S WAY ACROSS WESTERN KY DURING THE
LATE EVENING AND FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT, AND AS IS NOW QUICKLY
TRAVERSING CENTRAL KY. THE REMNANTS OF THIS MCS ARE EXPECTED TO MAKE
IT TO EASTERN KY WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WHICH COULD LEAD TO MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. ONCE THIS MOVES
THROUGH, SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN ON
TAP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY, ACCORDING TO THE CAMS, ALSO
EXPECTED TO GENERALLY MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST. THOUGH, WILL NOTE,
THAT MUCH LIKE THE PREVIOUS DAYS, THE CAMS HAVEN'T HAVE THE BEST
HANDLE ON THE SITUATION. THEREFORE FORECASTED POPS MAY NEED TO BE
UPDATED AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AND HOPEFULLY THE MODELS GET A BETTER
HANDLE ON WHAT IS HAPPENING. MOISTURE SHOULD PEAK BY THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH THE GFS SHOWING 2.0 INCH PWATS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY. GIVEN THAT PARTS OF EASTERN KY HAVE SEEN MULTIPLE ROUNDS
OF HEAVY RAIN OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS, AND WITH MUCH OF THE CWA
EXPECTED TO GET A GOOD AMOUNT OF RAINFALL THIS MORNING, PLUS
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS TO FOLLOW, WPC HAS KEEP ALL OF EASTERN KY
IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. THERE IS ALSO THE CONCERN
OF MULTIPLE STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE SAME LOCATION, ESPECIALLY GIVEN
THE GENERAL WEST TO EAST MOTION OF THIS SYSTEM.
SPC IS ALSO STILL HIGHLIGHTING A 5% WIND THREAT ACROSS EASTERN KY
TODAY FOR ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. HOWEVER, BETTER SEVERE POTENTIAL
IS TO OUR WEST, CLOSER TO THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
AS THE BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH TOMORROW (SUNDAY), MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ON TAP TO DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE SINKING
BOUNDARY, LIKELY PEAKING DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH CONTINUED HIGH
PWATS EXPECTED, WPC JUST UPGRADED THE BOTTOM 2/3 OF THE CWA TO A
SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. THEREFORE, WILL NEED TO CONTINUE
TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE FLOODING CONCERNS INTO SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY IF
CELLS BEGIN TO TRAIN ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
MEANWHILE, CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE ENTIRE
SHORT-TERM PERIOD, WITH SOME BREAKS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN
SHOWERS/STORMS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S FOR BOTH
TODAY AND SUNDAY, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID AND UPPER
60S (SIMILAR TO TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING).
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT SAT JUL 11 2026
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL OPEN WITH AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND GREAT PLAINS. MEANWHILE, WITH
TROUGHING DEPARTING THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS AND RIDGING PUSHING
EASTWARD, WHAT REMAINS OF THE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEEKENDS
RAIN WILL BECOME CUT OFF FROM GENERAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THIS LOW
WILL INTRODUCE ADDITIONAL UNCERTAINTY INTO THE FORECAST NEXT WEEK.
IN SHORT, MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS LOW WILL MEANDER THROUGH
THE MID SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE BEFORE
EVENTUALLY RETROGRADING TO THE SOUTHWEST BY MIDWEEK AT THE LATEST;
HOWEVER, THE SPEED AT WHICH THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS REMAINS UNCLEAR,
AND THIS WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON THE PATTERN FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD.
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE
SURFACE LOW INITIALLY NEAR THE KY/TN LINE PUSHES SOUTH. THE
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
OUR FORECAST AREA CLOSER TO THIS LOW. HOWEVER, WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S,
ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
CONVECTION. WITH WEAK FLOW ALOFT, ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT FORM
WILL TEND TO BE PULSE-Y IN NATURE, AND CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD
DECLINE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. MEANWHILE, WITH THE SURFACE LOW NOW
FIRMLY SOUTH OF OUR AREA AND A SURFACE HIGH IN THE MID ATLANTIC,
DOWNSLOPE SURFACE FLOW SHOULD SUPPRESS DEWPOINTS SOMEWHAT. THIS
DRIER AIR WILL GENERALLY LEAD TO DECREASED RAIN CHANCES ON
TUESDAY, WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS ONCE AGAIN IN THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA; HOWEVER, GIVEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED DISAGREEMENTS IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BY THIS
POINT, CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN POPS AT THIS POINT. REGARDLESS, ANY
CONVECTION THAT DOES FORM SHOULD AGAIN TAKE THE FORM OF TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, AND SHOULD ONCE AGAIN
DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, UNCERTAINTY INCREASES
SUBSTANTIALLY AS MODELS STRUGGLE TO REACH ANY REAL AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE FATE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND, MOST IMPORTANTLY,
THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. WITH SUCH NOTABLE
SPREAD, NBM OUTPUT SUGGESTS A GENERAL 20-40% CHANCE OF RAIN EACH
AFTERNOON; HOWEVER, THIS REPRESENTS A BLEND OF VERY DIFFERENT
SOLUTIONS, AND SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS WILL REQUIRE SOME REFINING
ONCE THERE IS MORE MODEL AGREEMENT. SHOULD THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PUSH OVERHEAD, STORM CHANCES WOULD BE SUPPRESSED, AND TEMPERATURES
WOULD RUN ABOVE AVERAGE. ON THE OTHER HAND, SHOULD THE RIDGE STAY
BACK OVER THE MOUNTAIN WEST, TYPICAL DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION
WOULD BE MORE LIKELY EACH AFTERNOON, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MUCH
CLOSER TO NORMAL. REGARDLESS, NEXT WEEKS RIDGING WILL NOT LAST
FOREVER. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD, UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL DIG
SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, INDICATING A POTENTIAL RETURN TO A
MORE ACTIVE PATTERN.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 208 AM EDT SAT JUL 11 2026
STARTING OFF WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER, THIS MAY NOT LAST. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED
JUST NORTH OF THE STATE, AND WILL BEGIN TO FINALLY PUSH SOUTH
AFTER 0Z TONIGHT, REACHING EASTERN KY AROUND THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD. DUE TO THE LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH, MUCH OF
EASTERN KY CONTINUES TO FIND ITSELF IN A WARM, MOIST, AND
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. FURTHERMORE, A BROAD AREA/SYSTEM OF STORMS
IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS WESTERN KY, AND WILL MAKE IT'S WAY INTO
EASTERN KY DURING THE MORNING HOURS TODAY, WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS
PROCEEDING IT'S ARRIVAL IN SOUTHERN KY (LIKELY AFFECTING KSME AND
KLOZ). PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LIKELY IN MANY LOCATIONS OFF
AND ON THROUGHOUT THE DAY, WITH SOME LULLS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON, THOUGH EXACT TIMING OF LATER STORMS AND IMPACTS ARE
STILL UNCERTAIN. EXPECT CONDITIONS (NAMELY VIS AND CIG) TO DROP
FROM VFR TO IFR TERRITORY WITH THE MORNING STORMS, AND
PERIODICALLY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS
MOVE THROUGH. WILL UPDATE AS NEEDED AS STORMS NEAR TAF SITES.
OTHERWISE, WINDS SHOULD BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD, OUTSIDE OF ANY PASSING STORMS.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-
068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...FAGAN
AVIATION...JMW
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