399
FXUS63 KJKL 111930
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
330 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE AT TIMES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
- HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, WITH A
THREAT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING.
- A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR INCREASED FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH LATE SUNDAY EVENING.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2026
AT 1830Z, SATELLITE HAS SHOWN SOME PARTIAL CLEARING OVER CENTRAL AND
PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. TEMPERATURES HAVE RECOVERED FROM
MORNING CONVECTION AND CURRENTLY SIT IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S ALONG WITH PWATS OF 1.8 TO 1.9 INCHES
MAKE FOR A SATURATED AND PRIMED ENVIRONMENT. LOOKING AT 850-MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT, VECTORS ARE ORIENTED IN A GENERAL WEST TO EAST
DIRECTION WITH A GOOD DEAL OF MAGNITUDE, USHERING IN HIGHER PWATS OF
2.0-2.1 INCHES FROM WESTERN KENTUCKY. MORNING CONVECTION OVER
EASTERN KENTUCKY, INCLUDING A CORRIDOR FROM POWELL TO PIKE COUNTY,
HAS LEFT THAT AREA MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING FROM ANY ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.
A SECONDARY AREA OF CONCERN REMAINS FROM PULASKI TO LETCHER AND ARES
SOUTH, AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS YIELDING EQUIVALENT
POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE OF 350 K INTERSECTING THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREA
ALONG WITH STRONG VECTORS. THIS IS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS, POTENTIALLY
LEADING TO MULTIPLE INTENSE DOWNPOURS AND A SIGNAL FOR LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING IF THE ABOVE WERE TO OCCUR.
LOW PRESSURE EMBEDDED IN A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH IS PRESENTLY
LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS WITH A COLD FRONT (BORDERLINE
STATIONARY) DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN KENTUCKY. AS TALKED ABOUT ABOVE
THE AREA SITS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT IN A MOISTURE RICH ATMOSPHERE.
WITH GROWING INSTABILITY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, SHOWERS AN
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RECOMMENCE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS COLD FRONT
WILL GRADUALLY PROPAGATE SOUTHWEST ALONG WITH THE LOW PRESSURE.
CONTINUED ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
EVENING, AND TOMORROW AS THE COLD FRONT SOMEWHAT STALLS OVER THE
AREA, EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE STATE LATER SUNDAY. THE WPC HAS
THE ENTIRE AREA IN A SIGHT EXCESSIVE RAIN OUTLOOK (ERO) THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING, AND AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED
UNTIL 2 AM MONDAY MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ADDITIONAL FLOOD THREAT.
TEMPERATURES COOL THIS EVENING INTO THE UPPER 60S AND IN AREAS WHERE
HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT OCCURRING, PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP. SUNDAY,
TEMPERATURE RECOVER SOME, WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S LOW 80S BEFORE
COOLING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S SUNDAY EVENING.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT SAT JUL 11 2026
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL OPEN WITH AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND GREAT PLAINS. MEANWHILE, WITH
TROUGHING DEPARTING THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS AND RIDGING PUSHING
EASTWARD, WHAT REMAINS OF THE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEEKENDS
RAIN WILL BECOME CUT OFF FROM GENERAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THIS LOW
WILL INTRODUCE ADDITIONAL UNCERTAINTY INTO THE FORECAST NEXT WEEK.
IN SHORT, MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS LOW WILL MEANDER THROUGH
THE MID SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE BEFORE
EVENTUALLY RETROGRADING TO THE SOUTHWEST BY MIDWEEK AT THE LATEST;
HOWEVER, THE SPEED AT WHICH THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS REMAINS UNCLEAR,
AND THIS WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON THE PATTERN FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD.
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE
SURFACE LOW INITIALLY NEAR THE KY/TN LINE PUSHES SOUTH. THE
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
OUR FORECAST AREA CLOSER TO THIS LOW. HOWEVER, WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S,
ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
CONVECTION. WITH WEAK FLOW ALOFT, ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT FORM
WILL TEND TO BE PULSE-Y IN NATURE, AND CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD
DECLINE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. MEANWHILE, WITH THE SURFACE LOW NOW
FIRMLY SOUTH OF OUR AREA AND A SURFACE HIGH IN THE MID ATLANTIC,
DOWNSLOPE SURFACE FLOW SHOULD SUPPRESS DEWPOINTS SOMEWHAT. THIS
DRIER AIR WILL GENERALLY LEAD TO DECREASED RAIN CHANCES ON
TUESDAY, WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS ONCE AGAIN IN THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA; HOWEVER, GIVEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED DISAGREEMENTS IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BY THIS
POINT, CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN POPS AT THIS POINT. REGARDLESS, ANY
CONVECTION THAT DOES FORM SHOULD AGAIN TAKE THE FORM OF TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, AND SHOULD ONCE AGAIN
DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, UNCERTAINTY INCREASES
SUBSTANTIALLY AS MODELS STRUGGLE TO REACH ANY REAL AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE FATE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND, MOST IMPORTANTLY,
THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. WITH SUCH NOTABLE
SPREAD, NBM OUTPUT SUGGESTS A GENERAL 20-40% CHANCE OF RAIN EACH
AFTERNOON; HOWEVER, THIS REPRESENTS A BLEND OF VERY DIFFERENT
SOLUTIONS, AND SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS WILL REQUIRE SOME REFINING
ONCE THERE IS MORE MODEL AGREEMENT. SHOULD THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PUSH OVERHEAD, STORM CHANCES WOULD BE SUPPRESSED, AND TEMPERATURES
WOULD RUN ABOVE AVERAGE. ON THE OTHER HAND, SHOULD THE RIDGE STAY
BACK OVER THE MOUNTAIN WEST, TYPICAL DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION
WOULD BE MORE LIKELY EACH AFTERNOON, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MUCH
CLOSER TO NORMAL. REGARDLESS, NEXT WEEKS RIDGING WILL NOT LAST
FOREVER. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD, UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL DIG
SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, INDICATING A POTENTIAL RETURN TO A
MORE ACTIVE PATTERN.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 154 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2026
18Z TAFS START IN A LULL OF PRECIP ACTIVITY, HOWEVER CEILINGS
REMAIN EITHER LOW END VFR OR HIGH END MVFR. CLEARING SKIES WEST
OF THE AREA WILL ALLOW FOR A SECONDARY ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO DEVELOP AND HEAD EAST ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON, AND EVENING. UNCERTAINTY LARGELY REMAINS OVER
TIMING AND COVERAGE OF THESE STORMS THOUGH TORRENTIAL RAIN, HIGH
RAIN RATES AND ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS COULD BE EXPECTED IN OR AROUND
ANY STORMS.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED JUST NORTH OF THE STATE, AND
WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH AFTER 00Z TONIGHT, EXITING EASTERN KY
LATER SUNDAY. DUE TO THE LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH,
MUCH OF EASTERN KY CONTINUES TO FIND ITSELF IN A WARM, MOIST, AND
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED AT
THE TAF SITES.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-
068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
SHORT TERM...GINNICK
LONG TERM...FAGAN
AVIATION...GINNICK/JMW
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